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Saturday, January 21, 2017

How will the Trump presidency affect world affairs?

Donald Trump has shown "a fine disregard for the rules of the game" in international affairs. But while William Webb Ellis turned football into rugby, Mr Trump's tear-it-up-and-start-again doctrine threatens to turn the planet into a gladiatorial free-for-all. A Darwinian and dark dystopia.

He has signalled contempt for international law when it comes to Israel's illegal Jewish settlements. He has signalled admiration for Vladimir Putin, who has illegally annexed the Crimea and continues to destabilise Ukraine and Georgia.

He has no truck with complex international trade deals with China, Mexico or Canada.

Britain's choice, and one it must make now, is whether to join in his dangerous adventure into chaos, or stick with the structures that have ensured peace for more than half a century.
Russia and NATO

By Dominic Waghorn, Diplomatic Correspondent

Americans have long been proud of the peaceful transition of power at the heart of their political system.

They believe their form of government is not only the best way of running their own country, but also an example to the world.

That belief has taken quite a knock this year, with an election tainted by scandal that has undermined the standing of western democracy.

Questions linger about the impact of Russian hacking on the electoral process, and the suspicion remains that Mr Trump has somehow been personally compromised by Russian intelligence.

Ethics experts and officials say his failure to produce tax returns is unacceptable and his attempts to remove himself from his businesses inadequate.

The Trump transition process is causing deep concerns because of differences between the President-elect and the people he wants in his cabinet, particularly on how to handle Russia.

While he talks of striking a bargain with Vladimir Putin, his nominees say the Russian leader is trying to break NATO and may need to be confronted.

Anthony Arend, professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University, told Sky News that this is unprecedented and potentially dangerous.

"It confuses the allies and I would say also emboldens our adversaries if there seems to be some kind of confusion about what's going on in the United States - the cabinet's saying one thing, the President is saying something else and Congress is moving in a different direction.

"That's a perfect opportunity for Putin to take advantage of that and undertake some kind of adventurous activity."

On the campaign trail and in recent interviews, Mr Trump has caused deep concern by calling NATO obsolete, writing off the EU and disparaging close allies.

Traditionally, incoming presidents reassure friends and unsettle potential enemies. Donald Trump has upended the foreign policy playbook by doing the opposite.

Professor Daniel Nexon, foreign relations scholar, says that is deeply worrying.

He said: "I don't think I've ever had so much personal anxiety about the fate of basic institutions that have served the United States and its allies extremely well since the end of the Second World War and certainly since the end of the Cold War."
The Middle East

By Alex Rossi, Middle East Correspondent

Donald Trump, the star of TV's the Apprentice and business guru extraordinaire - according to his own press - is now the Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful nation on Earth.

But a nation is only powerful if that power is expressed. So what will Mr Trump's foreign policy be in the Middle East?

Well, his policies (if you can call them that) are inchoate and he has no experience of foreign affairs, or indeed politics, so it is hard to predict. Overall he has suggested the US will no longer spend its taxpayers' cash on being the world's policeman.

So, in the Middle East and elsewhere, the US is likely, if he stays true to his word, to take a more isolationist approach.

I'm not sure if Mr Trump knows but there are a lot of Muslims in the Middle East. His comments about Muslims in the campaign period have not gone down well. In fact it is safe to say he has alienated millions of people before he has even started.

Mr Trump has suggested Islamic State will be a priority. Again, it is hard to know what he will do differently. US boots on the ground in large numbers would be a departure from Mr Obama's policy.

In all likelihood his approach will probably involve greater cooperation with Russia. This, in itself, will be fairly revolutionary.

Co-operation with the Kremlin against IS in Syria means the US will effectively be fighting on the same side as President Bashar al Assad - a man the Obama administration accused of war crimes and called on repeatedly to stand down.

On the Israel/Palestine question he says it's a deal he'd like to do. But he will not be viewed as an impartial negotiator. Most Palestinians see the US as biased towards Israel anyway but in Mr Trump they see a man who is openly partisan.

His pledge to move the US embassy to disputed Jerusalem is already proving to be incendiary. It's hard to think he will go through with it but you never know with a man who has unpredictability written through his DNA. The consequences of such a move could be huge and at the very least will exacerbate the tensions in this long-running conflict.
The Military

By Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

Donald Trump dismissed NATO as "obsolete" during the US presidential campaign. He warned that America wouldn't automatically come to the help of countries not spending at least 2% of GDP on their defence, as NATO guidelines stipulate. It certainly made Europe sit up and take notice.

His criticism of some members, for not spending enough on defence, has its supporters in the UK government and elsewhere. If the effect of this threat is that more alliance members boost defence spending that will only be a good thing.

It's Mr Trump's relationship with Russia that might characterise his use of the military.

Will he sustain the growing presence of US forces in Eastern Europe? Will he support Montenegro's accession to NATO membership against Russia's wishes? Will he turn a blind eye to Russian activity in eastern Ukraine? How will he react to further Russian bombing of civilians in Syria?

When Barack Obama came to office, al Qaeda, Afghanistan and Iraq were the three major interests for US forces. As he leaves the White House, the landscape has changed beyond any prediction, with the emergence of IS and re-emergence of an aggressive Russia.

Those are the two challenges Mr Trump inherits, but the only prediction I would confidently make, is that a threat will emerge that no one has yet identified.
Politics

By Faisal Islam, Political Editor

A Trump White House can change the game for Brexit. At first glance, Britain jumps straight to the front of the queue for a trade deal, ahead of the great trading Pacific and European trading block deals. It provides a tangible sign of progress outside the EU for the Brexiteers.

It also gives UK negotiators some leverage with the EU. Do Paris and Brussels really want a fast growing low-tax, low-regulation island off its coast, integrated with the world's largest economic superpower? And also gives the US some trade leverage with the EU too.

However, it also risks setting up a dangerous dynamic for a UK-EU negotiation. If European capitals see the EU as under attack from the Trump White House, aided and abetted by the UK, the exit negotiations will be conducted in survival mode rather than in a spirit of mutual economic benefit.

It increases the risk of an antagonistic, legalistic and painful divorce, rather than a friendly separation with the UK's largest trade partner. If the EU thinks the Trump White House predicts, desires and accepts the end of the European Union, as he has repeatedly implied, they will negotiate accordingly with Britain.

Europe

By Mark Stone, Europe Correspondent

Just days after the US election, a high-profile EU delegation hastily left Brussels for Washington. The fact-finding trip was a chance to establish contacts with the incoming administration.

Mr Trump's victory was a surprise for every European government. All but one (Hungary) bet on Hillary Clinton and their contacts with Team Trump were thin and his electioneering rhetoric concerning.

His broadside assault on Europe and NATO this week seems to reduce any hope among EU leaders that he didn't mean what he said during the election. Perhaps he did: "NATO is obsolete, the EU is doomed, Merkel made a catastrophic mistake."

These are huge statements which threaten to shatter the historic transatlantic relationship.

"Let's not fool ourselves," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week in Brussels.

"From the viewpoint of some of our traditional partners, and I’m thinking of transatlantic ties, there is no guarantee of perpetuity for close cooperation with us Europeans."

For some weeks, the diplomatic whispers have suggested that Team Trump seems almost to relish the demise of the EU.

The outgoing US ambassador to the EU has said Mr Trump's advisers asked the EU leadership who would leave next after the UK.

"It's not a surprise, right," ambassador Anthony Gardner said. "That's what is the mentality of this [Trump] team: 'this thing is falling apart. Who's next?'"

The Trump effect has emboldened European nationalists and populists who count themselves among Mr Trump's friends: Britain's Nigel Farage; France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen, spotted in Trump Tower last week and a genuine prospect for the French presidency; Geert Wilders, leader of the Netherlands’ populist Freedom Party and candidate for Dutch prime minister.

Will Mr Trump offer the UK a generous trade deal to spite the EU in the Brexit negotiations? Great news for the UK, less good for the rest of the EU.

Will some in Europe see a silver lining? Perhaps a Trump presidency will strengthen European Union cohesion.

European federalists will be emboldened to push forward their political project; an EU Army? A bolder, more unified EU foreign policy? The establishment governments will double down on their fight against populism.
Asia

By Katie Stallard, China Correspondent

Perhaps there was an assumption here that Mr Trump's penchant for China-bashing would be left on the campaign trail, that it was just the price of riding his wave of populism into office.

I remember one Chinese academic explaining patiently that US presidential candidates behaved in one way when they were running for election, quite another once they got into power. But what if President Trump turns out to be as advertised? What if he actually means what he says? The consequences for this region could be explosive.

The indications from his Twitter feed, and his team so far are not encouraging. His comments on Taiwan, specifically on the nearly four decades-old 'one China' policy that recognises the island as a part of China, risk serious escalation.

Perhaps this was just the opening gambit from a man who prides himself on being a tough dealmaker, but for Beijing, which sailed its aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait last week to underline its point, this is not up for negotiation.

Then there is the South China Sea, where Rex Tillerson, Mr Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, says China's artificial island-building must stop, and its access to them be blocked. That would mean waging "a large-scale war", a Chinese state-controlled newspaper replied.

And that's before we get to North Korea, where Kim Jong-Un claims to be in the final phases of testing an intercontinental ballistic missile. "It won't happen," Donald Trump immediately tweeted. He will need more than a 140-character response.

By Tom Rayner, South East Asia Correspondent

It's no secret America's allies in the Asia-Pacific region are preparing for a Trump presidency with trepidation. And they've good reason. Early indications are that the Trump administration seems perfectly prepared to upend US foreign policy orthodoxy.

In Asia, that orthodoxy, whether articulated by Barack Obama's Asia Pivot, or by earlier policies of the Bush administration, means the US offering a diplomatic, economic and military alternative to Chinese influence. Anything else, it is reasoned, would result in a radical reordering of the regional balance of power that could only strengthen China.

When the-then President-elect Trump questioned US military aid to rock-solid allies like Japan during the campaign, the long-standing orthodoxy was immediately drawn into question.

That prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet him after his election victory should be seen as clear indication of the nervousness.

But there is also the possibility the uneasiness felt from Hanoi to Tokyo, by those who fear the consequences of US withdrawal from the region, might be misplaced.

If Mr Trump's hawkish inclination to stare down China and call its bluff outweighs his apparently instinctual isolationism, new efforts to bolster ties with regional allies could - if only through pragmatism - be the result.
Africa

By Alex Crawford, Special Correspondent

Donald Trump has expressed no interest whatsoever in Africa. In most of his campaign speeches, the continent was mostly disregarded. But based on what he has said, aid for African countries is likely to suffer.

There are likely to be restrictions on the numbers travelling to the US for further education or business.

His anti-Muslim sentiments have dismayed the continent's multi-million Muslim population.

His economic plans are a mystery but given his business ambitions, Africans are hoping he may want to take on Chinese expansion on the continent.

He has stated his desire to curb terrorism by 'bombing the s**t out of ISIS', and the spread of terrorism across a number of African nations may catch his attention with the terror group prevalent in Libya as well as the ISIS-aligned Boko Haram in Nigeria and al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab in Somalia.

With few hopes, the only way is up for a Trump presidency.
Technology

By Tom Cheshire, Technology Correspondent

Don't worry: Donald Trump is "here to help". That's what he told technology executives at a meeting at Trump Tower - a group that included Apple chief executive Tim Cook, Elon Musk of Tesla and Google founder Larry Page.

Having spent much of the campaign attacking Mr Trump, Silicon Valley has been quick to come to heel - business being business. But trouble may be in store.

At a rally before the election, Mr Trump savaged Apple over its dispute with the FBI about the San Bernardino killer's iPhone, calling for a boycott of the company's products and saying about Tim Cook: "I would come down so hard on him - you have no idea - his head would be spinning all of the way back to Silicon Valley." (Mr Obama had been more equivocal on the subject.)

The wider picture, though, is that Mr Trump has barely a clue about technology. Apparently he doesn't use a computer himself. (If only the same were true of his mobile phone and the Twitter app installed there.)

In Mr Trump's own words: "The whole age of computer has made it where nobody knows exactly what's going on." Right.
Celebrities

By Katie Spencer, Entertainment Correspondent

Given Hollywood's left-leaning tilt, presidential parties look set to be a far less interesting affair under Donald Trump's watch. Virtually no celebrities were willing to stand alongside him on the campaign trail, and little seems to have changed following his election victory.

Apart from a visit by rapper Kanye West, few stars have wanted to be seen with him. Mr Trump's team reportedly struggled to secure singers to perform at his inauguration and he made some high-profile enemies before he even entered office - see Meryl Streep's Golden Globes speech for reference.

Mr Trump has shown he can be a master of the one-liner comebacks but he's struggled at being the butt of jokes.

Alec Baldwin's Saturday Night Live impression - the orange hairpiece and pronunciation of the word "China" - has been laughed at the world over. And making fun of Mr Trump only seems to draw him out.

He tweeted: "Just tried watching Saturday Night Live - unwatchable! Totally biased, not funny and the Baldwin impersonation just can't get any worse. Sad."

This is a man who understands the power of television. He became known for his blunt toughness on reality TV. His brand had been known for a time before, but the US version of The Apprentice allowed him to mould his image even further.

By the end of the first season, 27 million were tuning in to see him point his finger and deliver the classic "you're fired" line from inside Trump Tower. Not only was he promoting his business empire, his straight talking, no-nonsense approach helped him to build an army of fans who listen when he speaks.

That reality show is now over, but a new one begins. His lack of celebrity friends won't really matter - he has his family standing alongside him.

With his former model wife Melania, glamorous daughter Ivanka and the rest of Trump clan, The Donald's dynasty is every bit as fascinating as the Kardashians.


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