LAGOS, Nigeria - Nigeria's economy is growing at the slowest pace this decade as oil prices drop. Companies are complaining they can't get the dollars they need to do business. And trading in the naira has long since dried up.
There are many good reasons why Godwin Emefiele, who runs the central bank of Africa's biggest economy, should lift currency controls and let the naira depreciate. One of the things holding him back is politics.
Devaluing the naira may give opposition parties the opportunity to claim that Emefiele's main supporter, President Muhammadu Buhari, has lost control of the economy. With his backing, the policy chief will be able to resist his critics into 2016 before the worsening economic slump eventually forces him to capitulate, according to Standard Chartered and Bank of America.
"They could probably hold out for at least six months, maybe even a year," said Ayodele Salami, chief investment officer for London-based Duet Asset Management, which manages about $200 million of African equities. "The central bank has chosen currency stability and the price they're paying for that is growth. They could hold the line for a lot longer than the markets expect."
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