Corbyn Victory Unlikely To Split Labour Party

When I interviewed Labour leadership hopeful Owen Smith earlier this week, I asked him if he was on a suicide mission.

"My mam has joined up", he said rather optimistically. "She might swing it."

Despite his maternal support, the Pontypridd MP challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the party's leadership has a tough fight ahead.

Last year, Mr Corbyn won the contest decisively with more votes than the other three candidates put together.

This year, 180,000 people have paid £25 to sign up to have their say in the contest.

Even Owen Smith's supporters admit privately around "two-thirds" of that number are likely to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.

Those who want to depose the Labour leader are relying on a softening of support among longer-standing members.

Mr Corbyn has been holding leadership rallies in the north of England

They hope the more this group hears from Mr Smith, the more they will like him.

But what if they are wrong? What will the 'rebels' do if Jeremy Corbyn wins again?

There are three options despairing Labour MPs are discussing over the summer.

The first is the nuclear option: a split. The party could divide in two and do battle over who gets to keep the "Labour" brand. This is a last resort.

Thanks to the bruising experience of the 1980s, when the 'Gang of Four' split from the Labour Party to form the SDP, Labour MPs are reluctant to press the red button again.

The second is a party within a party. Labour MPs unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn could form their own group in Westminster, electing a separate leader of the parliamentary party and even organising MPs to shadow frontbench roles.

In this scenario, the Speaker would have final say over which group would form the official opposition.

The third option is to simply accept the result - willingly or not - if Jeremy Corbyn wins again.

Unsurprisingly, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, chair of the Jeremy for Labour campaign, is calling on them to do exactly that.

In a statement, he said: "The democratic process is fundamental to Labour Party values and all candidates must commit to respecting the outcome of this election.

"We call on Owen Smith to condemn the minority of MPs supporting his campaign who are threatening to subvert the outcome of this election and cause enormous damage to the Labour Party."

Labour MPs might not like it, but if Mr Corbyn is re-elected with an overwhelming majority, they may have little option.