Zuma’s ex-wife could be South Africa’s first female president

The race for South Africa’s top job is heating up. Seventeen months into his job as deputy president, it was assumed that Cyril Ramaphosa—a former trade unionist, also one of South Africa’s richest men—would easily slide into the top job in 2019 when president Jacob Zuma steps down.

Ramaphosa, who made a return into politics in 2012 after a 10-year sojourn, has always had presidential ambitions. In 1997, Ramaphosa was considered as a favoured successor for the presidency by Mandela, but this plan was thwarted by a skilful Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s former president, who out maneuvered Ramaphosa in African National Congress’ (ANC) internal politics, eventually becoming president.

Last week, South Africa’s Mail and Guardian reported (paywall) Ramaphosa has finally decided to throw his hat in the ring to contest for ANC president in 2017—a stepping stone for him to become South Africa’s president in 2019.

Despite cementing his standing as South Africa’s “fixer” and diplomat-in-chief in Jacob Zuma’s presidency, Ramaphosa now faces another hurdle that may thwart his chances of emerging as president in 2019: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the current African Union (AU) chair and ex-wife of president Jacob Zuma.

Jacob Zuma’s “get out of jail card”

At 66, Dlamini-Zuma is a seasoned South African politician. She served in Nelson Mandela’s 1994 cabinet as health minister, eventually landing up as foreign affairs and home affairs minister in Thabo Mbeki’s cabinet. She is renowned for turning around the home affairs portfolio, which was plagued by administrative inefficiencies and corruption.

Over the past months, debates have been raging in the ANC about the need for a woman president in 2019, and Dlamini-Zuma’s name has enjoyed preference.

In response to these calls, Dlamini-Zuma has been more forthcoming about her presidential ambitions than Ramaphosa.

“In the ruling party you never refuse a responsibility. I have never refused any responsibility that the ANC asked me to do,” she said at a ANC Women’s League conference in August this year.

But the debate about who takes over from president Jacob Zuma is not merely a tussle between Dlamini-Zuma, accomplished woman candidate, and Ramaphosa, a successful businessman.

It is tied to Dlamini-Zuma’s history with the South Africa’s current president, Jacob Zuma. The two were married for 26 years, until 1998, and they have four children together.

While the pair have kept a warm relationship together, it has not always been rosy. When Jacob Zuma defeated former South African president, Thabo Mbeki, in an internal race for the ANC presidency in 2007, Dlamini-Zuma supported Mbeki’s camp over her ex-husband’s bid.

Relations warmed again when Jacob Zuma’s ascended to power. Becoming South Africa’s president allowed him to support and led Dlamini-Zuma’s controversial campaign to become chair of the African Union (AU) in 2012—a move which signalled that Jacob Zuma might have bigger plans for Dlamini-Zuma back home, and that the AU job was in preparation for a takeover in 2019.

As the succession battle builds up, it seems that Jacob Zuma might be throwing his weight behind Dlamini-Zuma again. But for a different reason, beyond the need—and internal desire within the ANC—for a woman president, but also for his own self-interest.

In 2009, Zuma faced 700 charges of corruption and racketeering. These were later aside after Zuma argued that the charges were politically motivated. The drive for Dlamini-Zuma to become president—which has massive support from Zuma and his key allies in the ANC—is in part a strategy to keep the charges dead, long after Zuma has left the seat of power, some believe.

The argument for this is that as his ex-wife, she would not let the charges stand against Zuma, while Ramaphosa would.

“It is now almost common cause, at least outside the ANC, that those who support the president [Jacob Zuma] do not trust Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa. They, for reasons that are not always obvious to me, are afraid that Ramaphosa is the kind of chap who would not discourage the reinstatement of corruption charges against Zuma were the gods of some ANC faction to deem this necessary for the cleansing of the spirit of our polity. In more graphic language, Ramaphosa will send Zuma to jail,” writes Aubrey Matshiqi, a South African independent political analyst.

“If you asked me two months ago, I would have said Cyril Ramaphosa is going to be South Africa’s next president,” said Nic Borain, a political analyst who consults for BNP Paribas. “But Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, seems to be gaining ground. She has the support of all major ANC allied bodies—including the ANC youth league, the ANC women’s league, a powerful trifecta of regional ANC leaders and of course, her ex-husband,” says Borain.

Iraq warned of attacks before Paris assault

Senior Iraqi intelligence officials warned members of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group of imminent assaults by the militant organization just one day before last week’s deadly attacks in Pariskilled 129 people.

Iraqi intelligence sent a dispatch saying the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had ordered an attack on coalition countries fighting against them in Iraq and Syria, as well as on Iran and Russia, through bombings or other attacks in the days ahead.

The dispatch said the Iraqis had no specific details on when or where the attack would take place, and a senior French security official told the AP that French intelligence gets this kind of communication “all the time” and “every day.”

Without commenting specifically on the Iraqi warning, a senior U.S. intelligence official said he was not aware of any threat information sent to Western governments that was specific enough to have thwarted the Paris attacks. Officials from the U.S., French and other Western governments have expressed worries for months about Islamic State-inspired attacks by militants who fought in Syria, the official noted. In recent weeks, the sense of danger had spiked.

Six senior Iraqi officials confirmed the information in the dispatch, a copy of which was obtained by the AP, and four of these intelligence officials said they also warned France specifically of a potential attack. Two officials told the AP that France was warned beforehand of details that French authorities have yet to make public.

“We have recovered information from our direct sources in the Islamic State terrorist organization about the orders issued by terrorist ‘Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’ directing all members of the organization to implement an international attack that includes all coalition countries, in addition to Iran and the Russian Federation, through bombings or assassinations or hostage taking in the coming days. We do not have information on the date and place for implementing these terrorist operations at this time,” the Iraqi dispatch read in part.

Attacks planned well in advance

Among the other warnings cited by Iraqi officials: that the Paris attacks appear to have been planned in Raqqa, Syria — the Islamic State’s de-facto capital — where the attackers were trained specifically for this operation and with the intention of sending them to France.

The officials also said a sleeper cell in France then met with the attackers after their training and helped them to execute the plan.

There were 24 people involved in the operation, they said: 19 attackers and five others in charge of logistics and planning.

The officials all spoke anonymously because they are not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility on Saturday for the gun and bomb attacks on a stadium, a concert hall and Paris cafes that also wounded 350 people, 99 of them seriously. Seven of the attackers blew themselves up. Police have been searching intensively for accomplices.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, also told journalists in Vienna on Sunday that Iraqi intelligence agencies had obtained information that some countries would be targeted, including France, the United States and Iran, and had shared the intelligence with those countries.

Coalition countries targeted

Officials in the French presidential palace would not comment, and U.S. officials didn’t immediately comment when contacted by The AP.

Every night, the head of French counterintelligence goes to bed asking “why not today?” the French security official said.

The Iraqi government has been sharing intelligence with various coalition nations since they launched their airstrike campaign against the Islamic State group last year. In September, the Iraqi government also announced that it was part of an intelligence-sharing quartet with Russia, Iran and Syria for the purposes of undermining the militant group’s ability to make further battlefield gains.

A third of Iraq and Syria are now part of the self-styled caliphate declared by the Islamic State group last year. A U.S.-led coalition operating in Iraq and Syria is providing aerial support to allied ground forces in both countries, and they are arming and training Iraqi forces. The U.S. said it is also sending as many as 50 special forces to northern Syria.

Russia is also conducting airstrikes in Syria and recently endured a tragedy of its own when a Russian airplane was downed in a suspected bombing in Egypt last month, killing all 224 passengers onboard. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack.

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said Sunday the attack was likely directed and funded out of Syria.

France has been on edge since January, when Islamic extremists attacked the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, which had run cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, and a kosher grocery. Twenty people died, including the three attackers. The Charlie Hebdo attackers claimed links to extremists in Yemen, while the kosher market attacker claimed ties to the Islamic State group.

At the time, France’s prime minister acknowledged “failings” in intelligence that led to the three-day spree of horror, as criticism mounted that the attacks might have been avoided if officials had been more alert to the deadly peril posed by suspects already on their radar.

Experts noted that several factors may have been behind the failures in January: Security services are drowning in data, overwhelmed by the quantity of people and emails they are expected to track, and hampered by the inability to make pre-emptive arrests in democratic countries. Criticism had focused on the failure to more closely follow the two brothers who carried out the attack on the Charlie Hebdo newspaper. One had been convicted on terrorism charges and the other was believed to have linked up with al-Qaida forces while in Yemen. Both were on the U.S. no-fly list, according to a senior U.S. official, because of their links to terrorist movements.

Bernard Bajolet, the head of the French spy service, spoke during a public appearance at George Washington University in Washington two weeks ago about the twin threats France was facing, both from its own extremists and “terrorist actions which are planned (and) ordered from outside or only through fighters coming back to our countries.”

General warnings about potential attacks from Iraqi intelligence or other Middle Eastern intelligence services are not uncommon, the official said. The French were already on high alert.

“During the last month we have disrupted a certain number of attacks in our territory,” Bajolet said. “But this doesn’t mean that we will be able all the time to disrupt such attacks.”

Obtaining intelligence about the Islamic State group has been no easy feat given difficulties accessing territory held by the radical Sunni group. Iraqi agencies generally rely on informants inside the group in both Iraq and Syria for information, but that is not always infallible. Last year, reports from Iraqi intelligence officials and the Iraqi government that al-Baghdadi was injured were later denied or contradicted.

PM Modi at G-20 Summit

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday joined the leaders of the top 20 economies in condemning the barbaric terror attack in Paris and said that the fight against terrorism must be a top priority for G-20. The Summit is expected to discuss inclusive economic growth and climate change.

The first day of the Summit on Sunday began with a moment of silence to honour the victims of the deadly Paris attack. PM Modi has urged the world leaders to forge a global front in order to fight the scourge of terrorism:

Here the are the latest developments:

1) We meet in the tragic shadow of dreadful acts of terrorism; Combating it must be a top priority for G-20.

2) We welcome the G-20 focus on employment of women and youth this year.

3) To stimulate growth, we need to enhance public investments, not just rely on monetary policy.

4) Labour mobility and skill portability key for stable long-term economic growth.

5) Multilateral development banks should enlarge their capital base to support infrastructure needs of the developing countries.

6) PM Modi proposed a 7-point agenda on climate change.

7) He also set a target date before 2030 to reduce high costs of transferring remittances.

8) He stressed the need to shift from 'carbon credit' to 'green credit'. “We must not only reduce fossil fuel use, but also moderate our lifestyle.”

9) Bold economic and governance reforms have helped India achieve 7.5% growth, strong prospects for higher growth in future.

10) The G20 Summit, which was expected to mainly discuss inclusive economic growth and climate change, was set to adopt a resolution at the end of the two-day meeting tomorrow calling for better coordination and exchange of information to cut off funding and a more comprehensive approach on "addressing the conditions conducive to terrorism."

Global Brand Innovation Leaders Gather for Sustainable Brands ’15 London

November 16, 2015 – Sustainable Brands® pan-European conference SB’15 London begins today at the Beaumont Estate in Windsor. Nearly 400 business executives across diverse industry sectors and from 30+ countries are convening today through November 18th to collaborate and demonstrate how brands are transforming sustainability-led initiatives into profitable business outcomes.

The event features 80 influential speakers leading 40+ interactive discussion groups, breakout sessions, plenary presentations and networking activities. Each session is designed to spark conversation and debate on topics such as influencing societal demand and behavior in favor of more sustainable consumption norms, opportunities and challenges facing bio-materials, effective circular and sharing economy business models and understanding expectations of the new UN Sustainable Development Goals. 

Program highlights include:

Nielsen, BBMG, Futerra, Dragon Rouge, Wolff Olins and The Natural Marketing Instituteunveil new data on the current state of consumer expectations and purchase drivers around sustainability.

Disney, IKEA, Heineken, Marks & Spencer, The Guardian, Mr. Goodvertising and others go behind the scenes on new marketing and communication campaigns that are shaping the landscape of sustainability messaging.

Unilever, BASF, adidas, Mondelēz, Mars, UPS, and Philips share details and updates around their latest efforts to pivot their business models and shift product portfolios in alignment with their sustainability strategies.

The Future-Fit Business teampresents a breakthrough new goal-setting tool outlining 20 science-based social and environmental goals that all companies, regardless of industry or size, can apply.

O2 Telefónica, KPMG, SAP, Coca-Cola Spain and Global Tolerancediscuss how purpose-driven Millennials are reshaping relationships between brands and employees, and what executives can do to embed adequate values throughout an organization.

Seymourpowell leads a series of real-team, live design exercises as part of a workshop on sustainable innovation fundamentals. 

The Ellen MacArthur Foundationprovides guidance on using Circularity Indicators and other new research insights and tools that help measure and modify the level of circularity of existing business models.

The Activation Hub at SB’15 London

The Activation Hub is designed to cultivate conversation and debate around a series of topics that mirror topmost initiatives in the full conference program. Interactive sessions take place this year with knowledgeable experts from organizations such as Code REDD, PEFC, Neighbourly, Ashridge, Batan and others participating and sharing their innovations and ideas. BASF features the URBAN SPACE, an interactive module showcasing chemistry solutions for urban living and UPS shares how they are transforming logistics and supply chain management through demonstration and dialogue.

Free Conference Live Stream

Hosted by FLOCERT, Sustainable Brands offers free access to plenary presentations via live stream broadcast from the conference. After registering, live stream viewers receive access to the live simulcast of conference plenary sessions beginning Tuesday. Interested viewers can learn more and register at www.SB15London.com.

SB’15 London is supported by BASF, UPS, Casual Films, NatureBank, FLOCERT, Nice and Serious, Arjowiggins Graphic, Thomson Reuters and others. Supporting media and affiliate partners include Guardian Sustainable Business, brandchannel, SustainAbility, Business in the Community, Salt Magazine, Triple Pundit, Ethisphere, WBCSD and others. For a list of attendees and a complete list of sponsors and speakers, please visit the conference website at www.SB15London.com. Registration is still available and tickets can be purchased onsite at the Beaumont Estate in Windsor.

About Sustainable Brands

Sustainable Brands® is the premier global community of brand innovators who are shaping the future of commerce worldwide. Since 2006, our mission has been to inspire, engage and equip today’s business and brand leaders to prosper for the near and long term by leading the way to a better future. Digitally published news articles and issues-focused conversation topics, internationally known conferences and regional events, a robust e-learning library and peer-to-peer membership groups all facilitate community learning and engagement throughout the year. Sustainable Brands is a division of Sustainable Life Mediaheadquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Apple Music’s arrival put a dent in download revenue

Apple has $205 billion-plus cash on hand, but the struggling music labels gave its nascent subscription streaming service Apple Music a big financial break.

Universal Music owner Vivendi admitted as much during its earnings call on Wednesday. Digital recorded revenue is up year-on-year in the third quarter, but it fell by $18 million versus the preceding quarter.

The labels (along with their artists) all accepted a reduced royalty rate to help Apple Music get established with a free three-month introductory rate.

Apple Music’s arrival put a dent in download revenue — off 8 percent in the quarter.

Vivendi management also warned on its growth prospects, describing 2016 and 2017 as “transformational” years of heavy investment in digital media companies. That news sent the stock down the most in three years.

Hervé Philippe, Vivendi’s chief financial officer, told analysts, “The decline is due to a fall in downloads in the third quarter, especially due to the launch of Apple Music.”

Had Taylor Swift not written Apple that letter demanding payment for all artists, and had the independent labels not made a stink about being asked to provide music for free to one of the most profitable companies on the planet, one wonders how much worse things could look.

Meanwhile, Apple said Friday it is dumping the Beats Music service and hoping subscribers will join Apple Music. Beats Music reaches the end of the line at the end of the month.

Universal Music executive Thomas Ayad among victims in Paris attack

Universal Music Group executive, Thomas Ayad, was among the victims of Friday night's terrorist attacks in Paris, the company has confirmed. 

Ayad, an international product manager for Universal's Mercury Records label, died in the attack on the Bataclan theater that killed 89 people during a performance by the pop-rock band Eagles of Death Metal.

Universal Music Group Chairman Lucian Grainge called the loss "an unspeakably appalling tragedy," in a Saturday note to employees provided 

"I cannot even begin to express the depth of my sorrow," Grainge wrote. "On behalf of everyone here at UMG, we extend our most profound sympathies to his parents and all of his friends and family."

Eagles of Death Metal was seven songs into its sold-out concert when gunshots interrupted the performance. The 19th century venue was packed with more than 1,000 fans. The band has now canceled the remaining 20 dates on its European tour, according to promoters. 

Syrian Refugee Policy Takes Focus in US 2016

The bloody attacks in Paris are putting the Syrian refugee crisis at center stage in U.S. politics as migrants from that war-torn country surge toward the West and security concerns rise.

GOP presidential contender Marco Rubioon Sunday said the United States should no longer accept Syrian refugees because it's impossible to know whether they have links to Islamic militants — an apparent shift from earlier statements in which he left open the prospects of migrants being admitted with proper vetting.

"It's not that we don't want to, it's that we can't," Rubio said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." "Because there's no way to background check someone that's coming from Syria. Who do you call and do a background check on them?"

The question of admitting Syrian refugees has for months been part of the national security discussion among 2016 candidates that cuts to the heart of the American identity as a refuge. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on Sunday told NBC's "Meet the Press" that the U.S. should admit Syrian Christians, after proper vetting. Other Republican candidates have called for a ban on allowing Syrians into the U.S. All three Democratic presidential candidates have said they would admit Syrians but only after thorough background checks.

But Friday night's mass killings in Paris, which left at least 129 people dead, offered evidence that may have backed up what many, including Rubio, had been warning: People with secret ties to Islamic militants could flow across borders as part of waves of refugees.

Authorities said a Syrian passport found near one of the Paris attackers that had been registered last month and traveled through three countries along a busy migrant corridor known for lax controls. It was not clear whether the document was real or forged. Officials on Sunday were still trying to identify people involved in the conspiracy. They said as many as three of the seven suicide bombers who died in the attacks were French citizens.

A spokesman for President Barack Obama said Sunday that the administration is moving forward with its plan to thoroughly vet and admit as many as 10,000 Syrian refugees.

"What we need to be able to do frankly is sort out that foreign fighter flow, those who have gone into Syria and come out and want to launch attacks or those people who have connections with ISIL in Syria," Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said on Fox News Sunday. "At the same time, we have to recognize there's tragic victims of this conflict, there are women, and children, orphans of this war and I think we need to do our part, along with our allies, to provide them a safe haven."

GOP presidential hopeful Ben Carson said Syrian refugees should not be brought to the U.S. because it is too easy for jihadis, intent on "wreaking havoc in this country," to embed with them. "There's no reason we should be facilitating such a thing," he said after a southern Nevada rally Sunday. Instead, he spoke of giving Syrians unspecified help to stay in their country.

The Paris attacks have elevated national security in the presidential contest. In Saturday night's Democratic presidential debate, which began with a moment of silence for the Paris victims, all three candidates — former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley — said the U.S. should admit far more than the 10,000 Syrians to which Obama has committed, but only with proper screening.