From tourism to luxury spending, the City of Light will likely feel a profound economic hit in the aftermath of the Paris attacks.
Travel stocks across Europe took a big hit on Monday as investors worried about the attacks’ immediate and long-term impact across the continent. French hotel group Accor fell 4.7%, the worst among hotel and cruise line stocks in Europe. Air France-KLM SA, which counts Paris-Charles De Gaulle airport as its main hub, led the loss of major European airlines with 5.7% one-day drop. Other leading European airlines such as Germany’s Lfthansa AG, Norwegian Air Shuttle, and Finnair, also fell more than 2%, while budget airlines like Ryanair and easyJet saw a slight one-day drop.
The fear in Europe extended to the U.S. as well. Eight out of the 15 worst performers on the S&P 500 today were travel-related, including hotels, cruise lines and booking sites. Priceline and Expedia both fell more than 2%, while Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises dropped 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. All of the Big Four airlines – Delta, American Airlines, United Continental, and Southwest Airlines– came under pressure too, as a gloomy outlook of the global tourism industry erased airline stocks’ spectacular gains in October.
In addition to travel stocks across different continents, Europe’s leading luxury retailers felt the pain today. From Italy’s Salvatore Ferragamo to France’s Hermes and Christian Dior, high-end brands have benefited from a strong influx of Asian shoppers to Paris and other major European tourism destinations. It remains unclear to investors whether a decrease in tourist numbers would post any significant impact on holiday sales in the most important quarter of the year for retailers.
While the tragedy struck fear in the global stock market today, some analysts argue that it is now a good time to buy in these sectors. “We think that as long as these incidents do not continue, airline stocks will start to trade on fundamentals, rather than fear,” wrote S&P Capital IQ’s equity analyst Jim Corridore. “We do not see a long term demand impact from the Paris events. With that in mind, we think demand remains strong and lower fuel expense is driving strong profitability and strong operating cash flows.”