What is behind ISIL's attacks?

After ISIL's deadly attacks on Paris, Beirut and a Russian airliner over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, has the group changed its strategy?

On this episode of UpFront, Mehdi Hasan asks the former head of counterterrorism for British intelligence and one of the founders of the UN's Counter Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF) about ISIL's tactics and game plan.

We also examine the myth of the Sunni-Shia war, and speak to the leading Muslim scholar Sheikh Hamza Yusuf about the roots of radicalisation.

Headliner: Former head of counterterrorism at MI6 Richard Barrett

Over the past month, ISIL has claimed responsibility for bringing down a Russian airliner over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, suicide blasts in Beirut and attacks in Paris.

Both Russia and France have responded by intensifying air strikes against ISIL targets in Syria. Across the West, heightened concerns have prompted officials to bolster security measures, with ISIL vowing to strike again.

So, what's behind the group's recent string of attacks? Is ISIL changing its strategy to bring about a confrontation with the West or is it trying to deter further military attacks on its so-called caliphate?

In this week's Headliner, Mehdi Hasan asks Richard Barrett, the former head of counterterrorism at MI6, about ISIL's motivation.

Reality Check: The myth of a Sunni-Shia war

What is driving the current violence and chaos in the Middle East? Many say it's the "age-old" sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shia, but a look at the facts shows something different.

In this week's Reality Check, Mehdi Hasan highlights the myth of the so-called Sunni-Shia war.

Special: Sheikh Hamza Yusuf

Leading US Muslim scholar Sheikh Hamza Yusuf has been at the forefront of efforts to counter the narrative of ISIL.

As the cofounder of the only Muslim liberal arts college in the US, Yusuf has worked to stop young Muslims in the West from going to fight for ISIL.

In an interview recorded before the recent attacks in Paris, Beirut and Baghdad, Mehdi Hasan asks Yusuf what is behind the allure of the group for some people and why they join it.

Brussels is put on high alert as Europe moves to tighten borders

PARIS — The government abruptly shut down the metro system in Brussels, canceled sporting events and warned shoppers to stay away from malls as Belgium placed the capital on maximum alert early Saturday, citing a “serious and imminent” threat of attack.

Just a week after the deadly Paris attacks, armed troops stood guard in front of hotels and bus stops in Brussels. The government warned the population to avoid crowds; there was a scattering of shop closures. At least four of the Islamic State militants who attacked Paris came from the same immigrant neighborhood in the Belgium capital.

The new threat alert in Brussels comes after European countries agreed Friday to new steps aimed at securing Europe’s frontiers, as further evidence emerged that extremists in the terrorist attacks in Paris were using the region’s porous borders to slip between the continent and the battlefields of the Middle East.

French prosecutors said Friday that they had confirmed that another of the suicide bombers who died in the attack on the Stade de France had traveled through Greece, adding more evidence of how militants have been taking advantage of the same routes used by migrants to flee into Western Europe from the war-torn Middle East. The man, officials said, had apparently entered Greece on the same date and location — Leros island on Oct. 3 — as another attacker who had arrived with a fake Syrian passport under the name Ahmad Almohammad.

The name of the second stadium bomber was not provided by prosecutors. But two senior security officials briefed on the investigation in two different countries said the man had traveled on a fake Syrian passport under the name Mohammad al-Mahmod.

Senior European officials meeting in Brussels agreed to implement a higher measure of monitoring at external borders, even as France extended its broad counterterrorism sweeps nationwide.

Currently, citizens of the European Union — unless they display suspicious behavior — face only cursory checks when arriving on flights from outside the 26 nations in Europe that share an open border treaty. The new policy would bring more scrutiny, including thorough passport checks against European watch lists.

Nine people were arrested in sweeps Thursday in Belgium in connection with the Paris attacks. Seven were released Friday without charges, and two remained in detention.

In Paris, French officials said Friday that a third body — that of a male — was found in the rubble of Wednesday’s massive pre-dawn police raid in which Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected ringleader of the Paris attacks, was killed. French officials now say that it was this newly uncovered but still unidentified third person who detonated a suicide vest in the apartment — not, as authorities had earlier reported, the lone woman in the group. She was officially identified Friday as 26-year-old Hasna Aitboulahcen. Prosecutors said a passport in that name was also found in the targeted apartment.

Police believe that Abaaoud fired one of the three Kalashnikovs on cafés in Paris last Friday night. Abaaoud was seen entering the metro system on video surveillance about half an hour after the attack on the Bataclan began at a station east of Paris near where police later found an abandoned Seat used in the attacks.

On Thursday, French officials said that a “non-European country” had provided information Monday that Abaaoud had passed through Greece, the single-largest gateway to Europe for a record flood of migrants. A senior police official said that at least one of the three suspects captured alive Wednesday had also been in Greece.

Salah Abdeslam, 26, a French national now wanted in connection with the attacks, is also believed to have been stopped in Greece in August. Four other assailants are believed to have traveled through Europe to Syria, but their exact routes remain uncertain.

The confirmed death toll in the attacks rose Friday to 130, from 129. More than 350 people were wounded in the carnage.

With Europe confronting a heightened terrorist threat, the measures announced Friday underscored a trade-off between security and the open borders that the European Union once held dear. Moving to shut down a network of homegrown jihadists who are slipping undetected between the continent and the battlefields of the Middle East, officials agreed to come up with a proposal before the end of the year to enhance the ability to track airline passengers. Currently, passenger list information in Europe is kept for only a month. That could now be extended.

“A month to conserve data?” French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Friday. “That’s definitely not enough.”

But Cazeneuve, the French interior minister, on Friday urged his counterparts in Europe to agree to fresh security measures, including more involved passport checks at Europe’s borders. He warned Friday that “we can’t lose any more time.”

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a French-sponsored resolution Friday calling on all nations to redouble and coordinate action to prevent further attacks by Islamic State terrorists and other extremist groups, the Associated Press reported.

The resolution says the Islamic State “constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security,” and it expresses the council’s determination “to combat by all means this unprecedented threat.”

Are Successful CEOs Just Lucky?

“Ask chief executives why their companies are performing so well, and they’ll typically credit a brilliant strategy coupled with hard-nosed, diligent execution. When you ask Lars Sørensen of Novo Nordisk what forces propelled him to the top of HBR’s 2015 ranking of the best-performing CEOs in the world, he cites something very different: luck.”
So begins our recent profile of the best performing CEO of 2015. Sørensen’s modesty is refreshing, but is it accurate? 

A series of recent papers help answer that question, by quantifying the roles of luck, ability, and experience in CEOs’ success. Together they suggest two conclusions: first, no single trait or skill seems to explain CEO performance; and second, luck plays a very large role.

There is a long line of research that attempts to measure the impact of CEOs on the companies they run, and it provides background for these newer studies. Estimates of CEOs’ contribution to companies’ success vary, but one study found that it varies between 2% to 22% depending on the industry, and most estimates I’ve seen fit within that range. There is also some evidence that this “CEO effect” has been rising over time.

The CEO, then, is not the primary driver of a firm’s success. Industry, for instance, matters far more. But what factors determine which CEOs rise and fall, and who makes it to the top job in the first place?

It shouldn’t take a careful empirical study to convince you that CEOs don’t get where they are on the basis of ability alone. If that were true, the C-suite would not be so dominated by white men. Nonetheless, a new working paper by Renee Adams at the University of New South Wales, Matti Keloharju at Harvard Business School, and Samuli Knupfer at BI Norwegian Business School helps to quantify the role of ability in becoming CEO.

The researchers used data from the Swedish military to compare Swedish men who ended up becoming CEOs to men who didn’t. Military service was mandatory in Sweden between 1970 and 1996, and the government attempted to measure young men’s aptitude using a series of cognitive tests, as well as an interview. The researchers were able to match this data with other sources to determine the professions these men eventually entered, and how well they were paid.

Their results are what you might expect: CEOs are, on average, smarter than most people. But they’re hardly exceptional. The median CEO of a large firm in Sweden scored in the top 17% in “cognitive ability,” a measure based on four tests given by the military to assess inductive reasoning, verbal comprehension, spatial ability, and technical comprehension. (The researchers don’t argue that such ability is necessarily innate, as opposed to shaped by one’s upbringing; they just note that the scores predate any leadership experience.)

CEOs of large firms scored higher on this measure than CEOs of small firms and family firms. But large firm CEOs didn’t score much higher than other professionals, like doctors, lawyers, or engineers.

Success in the military interview was a slightly better predictor of becoming a CEO, compared to cognitive tests. As the researchers explain, “Conscripts obtain a higher score in the interview when they demonstrate that they have the willingness to assume responsibility, are independent, have an outgoing character, demonstrate persistence and emotional stability, and display initiative.” Perhaps this represents a measure of the things CEOs need beyond smarts; perhaps it reflects bias in the interview process.

Overall this evidence suggests that CEOs are a relatively talented bunch, but not much more so than other skilled professionals, or for that matter than the executives who report to them.

“These results suggest that the high pay CEOs enjoy does not arise from scarce supply of the three traits we study,” the researchers conclude, noting that Swedish CEOs receive a 1200% pay premium compared to the average worker. “While a favorable mix of traits may make it easier to climb on the corporate ladder, it by no means assures a position as a chief executive of a major company.”

What else shapes the careers of successful CEOs? It’s hard to avoid Sørensen’s conclusion that luck is the single biggest factor. Consider a 2014 study by Dirk Jenter at Stanford and Fadi Kanaan at MIT: they looked at more than 3,000 CEO turnovers between 1993 and 2009 and found that CEOs were frequently fired for factors well outside their control. Recall that in the CEO effect studies, industry and macroeconomic factors tended to matter more for financial success than who was running the company. Yet, Jenter and Kanaan found that CEOs were significantly more likely to be dismissed during recessions or when their industry is suffering, despite the fact that these trends have little to do with managerial skill. (Lest you start to feel bad for CEOs, if anything they are more likely to be compensated for good luck than fired for bad.)

Perhaps the most sweeping indictment of the idea that CEOs’ careers are shaped by skill comes from a 2014 paper by Markus Fitza at Texas A&M. He argues that even that 2% to 22% of firm performance that studies have attributed to CEOs could be largely the product of luck. To understand why, you have to dive into the methodology of all this research, but I promise it will be worth it.

Studies of the CEO effect usually look at how much CEO turnover correlates with a company’s financial performance, after accounting for other factors like industry performance, overall economic performance, and the like. If a firm does badly for four years under one CEO, then another CEO comes in under the same economic conditions and the firm does well for the next four years, that gets counted as the CEO effect.

But that’s not necessarily proof of CEO skill. Imagine that when CEOs take the top job, they get to pick between two strategies, and once they pick, that strategy is in place for their full tenure. One strategy leads to success, the other to failure, but no one knows which strategy is which. Perhaps the first CEO in the example above just randomly happened to pick the bad strategy, and the next CEO happened to pick the good one. In that case, the CEO effect would just be measuring luck.

That example is purposely oversimplified, but CEOs clearly do face uncertainty when choosing a strategy. If a new CEO coming in and changing course is more like a dice roll than an indication of competence, then measurements of the CEO effect reflect luck rather than skill.

Fitza’s contribution is to estimate just how confident we can be that the CEO effect is due to skill rather than luck. To do so he simulates how big a CEO effect you might see in the data if company performance were entirely random. He shows that, because of how few data points exist about any single CEO, randomness can create the illusion of a CEO effect, even when no skill is involved. Fitza calculates that the portion of the CEO effect that we can be confident is related to skill is between 4% and 5% of total company performance. (The study that found the 2% to 22% range tried a similar approach and came to the conclusion that in some industries the CEO effect was large enough to rule out luck, while in others it was not.)

What should we make of all this?

It’s safe to say that CEOs are, overall, a talented bunch, but that’s not what separates them from other professionals, nor is it the main reason their firms succeed or fail. Certainly it doesn’t come close to explaining why they’re so well paid. Put another way, CEOs matter, just less than many people think. Instead, luck, and yes, bias, play a far larger role in determining who ends up leading companies, and whether they are fired or end up industry leaders.

There’s perhaps no better proof of this point than the third factor the researchers looked at in the study of male CEOs in Sweden. In addition to the interview and the cognitive tests, the researchers considered height. Taller men, they found, were more likely to become CEO, though the effect wasn’t as strong as for the other two factors. Even though CEOs weren’t at the very top of the spectrum in intelligence, when the researchers combined cognitive ability, interview results, and height into one score, they found that CEOs of large Swedish firms were in fact in the top 5%. Becoming CEO doesn’t necessarily hinge on being the best and brightest, though that helps. It’s also important that society thinks you look the part.

Paris Attacks Hit Global Travel

From tourism to luxury spending, the City of Light will likely feel a profound economic hit in the aftermath of the Paris attacks.

Travel stocks across Europe took a big hit on Monday as investors worried about the attacks’ immediate and long-term impact across the continent. French hotel group Accor fell 4.7%, the worst among hotel and cruise line stocks in Europe. Air France-KLM SA, which counts Paris-Charles De Gaulle airport as its main hub, led the loss of major European airlines with 5.7% one-day drop. Other leading European airlines such as Germany’s Lfthansa AG, Norwegian Air Shuttle, and Finnair, also fell more than 2%, while budget airlines like Ryanair and easyJet saw a slight one-day drop.

The fear in Europe extended to the U.S. as well. Eight out of the 15 worst performers on the S&P 500 today were travel-related, including hotels, cruise lines and booking sites. Priceline and Expedia both fell more than 2%, while Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises dropped 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. All of the Big Four airlines – Delta, American Airlines, United Continental, and Southwest Airlines– came under pressure too, as a gloomy outlook of the global tourism industry erased airline stocks’ spectacular gains in October. 

In addition to travel stocks across different continents, Europe’s leading luxury retailers felt the pain today. From Italy’s Salvatore Ferragamo to France’s Hermes and Christian Dior, high-end brands have benefited from a strong influx of Asian shoppers to Paris and other major European tourism destinations. It remains unclear to investors whether a decrease in tourist numbers would post any significant impact on holiday sales in the most important quarter of the year for retailers.

While the tragedy struck fear in the global stock market today, some analysts argue that it is now a good time to buy in these sectors. “We think that as long as these incidents do not continue, airline stocks will start to trade on fundamentals, rather than fear,” wrote S&P Capital IQ’s equity analyst Jim Corridore. “We do not see a long term demand impact from the Paris events. With that in mind, we think demand remains strong and lower fuel expense is driving strong profitability and strong operating cash flows.”

Suspected Paris Attacks 'Scout' Held In Turkey

Ahmet Dahmani, 26, was held at a luxury hotel in the southern coastal city of Antalya, where world leaders had been meeting days earlier at the G20 summit, the Dogan news agency said.

The report said two other men, both Syrians, were also detained on a nearby road on suspicion that they had been sent by Islamic State to ensure Dahmani's safe passage across the border.

Counter-terrorism police first became aware of Dahmani - a Belgian man of Moroccan origin - when he arrived on a flight to Antalya and tracked him to the hotel in the Manavgat district of the city, Dogan said.

Separately, Turkey deported a group of Moroccans detained at Istanbul's main airport this week over suspected links to IS.

The eight, who said they had arrived at Ataturk airport on Tuesday night from Casablanca for a holiday, were detained by border police and questioned by profiling experts who flagged them as suspected militants, a government official said.   

Russia to overhaul national security

Russia's parliament has backed a sweeping overhaul of national security, including a possible expansion of intelligence powers, after the Kremlin had concluded a bomb downed a Russian plane over Egypt last month. 

In a rare meeting of both chambers of parliament on Friday, deputies and senators adopted a resolution calling for tougher penalties for "terrorists", stricter public security measures, and new action to combat extremism.

"You can't have too much security, and any system needs perfecting," said Valentina Matviyenko, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and the head of the Federation Council, the upper house of parliament. "Such work is going on at full pace."

Russia has intensified its air strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria in response to the plane attack that killed all 224 people on board on October 31.

Parliamentarians say they want to ensure that Putin knows he has their full support if he decides to go further.

Matviyenko said security measures at airports, on public transport, and in places where large events are held, have already been beefed up - on Putin's orders - in the past week.

Sergei Mironov, the leader of the Just Russia party, said on Friday that it was "essential" in the wake of the plane crash for Russia to bring back the death penalty for terrorists and their accomplices. The penalty is currently subject to a moratorium.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Mironov's idea was a new one, but that the issue was complex, while Sergei Ivanov, Putin's chief-of-staff, said Russians would back such a proposal, but that it was "premature" to reinstate capital punishment.

In a separate development, Riad Haddad, the Syrian ambassador to Russia, told journalists in St Petersburg that Russia faced a major threat from ISIL members who come from post-Soviet countries.

The Russian Itar-Tass news agency quoted him as saying that about 10,000 natives of post-Soviet states were fighting for ISIL.

UN Agrees To Combat IS

David Cameron says the world has united against Islamic State

The world powers also agreed to co-ordinate efforts aimed at preventing further atrocities by IS - but the resolution does not provide any legal basis for military action.

The UN Security Council said IS "constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security" and it expressed the determination "to combat by all means this unprecedented threat".

vote comes a week after militants launched co-ordinated gun and bomb attack in the French capital, killing 130 people. 

The continuing global threat posed by extremists was again highlighted after gunmen stormed a luxury hotel in Mali, where at least 21 people have been killed.

resolution was drafted by the French, co-sponsored by the UK and also gained support from the Russians, whose veto power previously led western nations to put off seeking UN backing.

Following the vote, Prime Minister David Cameron said: "This is an important moment. Today, the world has united against ISIL (IS).

"The international community has come together and has resolved to defeat this evil, which threatens people of every country and every religion.

"The United Nations Security Council has unanimously backed action against this evil death cult in both Syria and Iraq.

"It has also reiterated its determination to secure a political solution to the conflict in Syria."

He added: "Today’s vote shows beyond doubt the breadth of international support for doing more in Syria and for decisive action to eradicate ISIL.

"Britain will continue to support our allies who are fighting ISIL in Syria.

"We cannot expect others to shoulder the burdens and the risks of protecting this country."

Although the UN resolution does not invoke the chapter of the UN charter authorising the use of force, Mr Cameron - who insists there is a legal case for military action even without it - will hope it will bolster support at Westminster for his efforts to extend airstrikes into Syria.

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is strongly opposed to such a move, Seven days after the massacre in France, Parisians took to the city's streets in a united show of defiance.

Crowds gathered at the scenes of the attacks and landmarks to hold vigils and mark the exact moment a week on when the terrorists launched their deadly rampage.

Bouquets were laid at the Place de la Republique, lit by the flames of hundreds of candles, and at the cafe La Belle Equipe, where one of the gun attacks took place, mourners broke into a round of applause at a memorial for the victims.

France will be on a state of high alert until well into the new year after the country's senate voted to extend a state of emergency for three months.

The move expands powers to allow police to carry out arrests and searches, while authorities can ban the movement of people and vehicles at specific times and places.

Meanwhile, Belgian authorities have brought terror charges against a third suspect  over the attacks, with two others in custody.