Watches Are Bad Investments

There’s a tendency for people to refer to expensive purchases as investments. “I’m going to invest in a new TV,” someone might say. Yet televisions hold their value about as well as a Cosmo Kramer business idea holds oil. Televisions are not investments. Neither is a phone or a car, unless it’s a rare vintage one that will be kept in a garage and never touched. 

Clearly, pretty much anything with a technological expiration date is a bad financial investment. This is why many skeptics have voiced concerns about the priciest Apple Watches–because it makes little sense to drop thousands of dollars on a gadget-fashion piece that will be outdated and lose value as time passes.

But what about mechanicalwatches? You know, the ones that don’t use electricity and are technologically static, immune from cutting-edge developments? People don’t buy mechanical watches for hi-tech features, so they’re not at risk of becoming obsolete.

Like wine, art, or other hard assets like diamonds, gold, and real estate, people sometimes do refer to watches as “investments” without completely misusing the word. And yet it would be silly to view a watch, or a collection of watches, as a core component of your investment portfolio.

“Don’t think about them as financial investments,” says Ariel Adams, the founder of ABlogtoWatch.com, a prominent horology website. “Buying low and selling high doesn’t typically work so well in the watch world.” 

A large part of the reason, Adams says, is the fickle and emotional nature of the watch market. A single collector alone has the power to influence the tastes, trends, and values of the entire market. Pop culture plays a role too: There’s no doubt that James Bond propelled Rolex even higher when it debuted on Sean Connery’s wrist in Dr. No. Essentially, it’s really hard to predict where the market will go, even where tried-and-true marques are concerned, which makes watches troublesome as investment fodder.

Stephen Pulvirent, who writes about watches for Bloomberg, agrees: “If you’re looking for an easy, safe, blue-chip investment, put your money into a mutual fund.”

Part of this is because the ultra-high-rolling watch world may also be in the midst of a bit of a bubble, according to Adams, who points to the huge watch auctions that are reminiscent of the art world. But in the more down-to-earth watch market ($4,000-8000), the growth feels more meaningful. 

“Vintage collecting has always been big, but in the last five years, it’s exploded,” says Paul Altieri, awatch expert and CEO of leading pre-owned and vintage Rolex dealer Bob’s Watches. Elbow-deep in that market every day for years, he’s noted bubble-like growth (20% in the past two years; 50% in the past four), but he attributes it to the Internet and social media, which has jumpstarted global interest in watches. To him, that boom was just the world catching up.

So what watches best hold their value?

Certain relatively attainable ($4,000-$9000) watches are known to hold their value extremely well—even appreciating in some cases. Interestingly, they’re almost all made by Rolex. “I hate to say it, but in this price range, vintage Rolex—and now vintage Tudor, ‘the working man’s Rolex’—are the best game in town if you’re looking for an investment-grade piece that doesn’t have to sit in the safe,” says Adam Craniotes, a watch writer, collector, and founder of Red Bar, a group of watch aficionados.

Everybody seems to agree on this. “Along with Patek Philippe [a brand typically outside of this price range], it’s the only brand that is able to maintain the high resale value with the majority of its products,” says Adams. “Rolex has spent decades creating the marketing image that a Rolex watch is a sign of success—it also happens to be a good watch.”

Rolex’s dominance on the second-hand market is the reason why Altieri structures his whole business around a single brand. According to Altieri, “They’ve held their value the best. 90% of what Bob’s Watches does is Rolex. They dominate the new market and the old market.”

Not all Rolexes mature equally, however.

“In general the watches that have done the best over time have been the sport watches: The GMT, the Submariner, and the Daytona,” says Altieri, who chalks this up to the more casual nature of a watch designed for a job or use, not a formal occasion. 

One of the reasons for Rolex’s success in value retention, according to Adams, is that it has kept the product line small, enabling many of these watches to become household names. Omega, in comparison, does okay on the second-hand market, but has hurt itself by peppering the field with so many different models over the years.

How to at least break even on a watch as an investment

While you shouldn’t count on a watch to produce a solid ROI, you can do a few things besides just getting a Rolex to give yourself the best chance at making a profit in 10 or 20 years.

One option is going vintage. So when does a watch become vintage and not merely “pre-owned”? According to Altieri, the line is a little blurry: “After 20 or 30 years it starts to appreciate gradually in value—that’s what’s happened to almost all Rolex watches. So we’re starting to see the 16800 become collectible. That’s the last Submariner made before the current one now.”

As for why vintage models are most likely to keep going up in value, well, the limited supply is key. “They’re not making any more old watches,” says Altieri. “They’ve only made so many 5512s, one of the first Submariners with a crown guard, and there’s a finite amount of those left and every year more and more die off.”

The other advantage of vintage, says Adams, is increased visibility of the market. “You already know everything which happens with that product, you know the demand, how well they’ve aged, the competition. You can look back on a watch and see its complete history and make a conclusion. You know generally how it’s held up. With new stuff you never know.”

Watches that fall into the “pre-owned” category—anything that’s not new, yet not considered vintage yet—are far more affordable, and they can often represent good deals for someone who wants a high-quality model to wear for the long haul. Much like a car, a new $10,000 Rolex driven off the lot is suddenly worth about half, considering the dealer probably paid $6,000 for it. On the pre-owned market, you may be able to acquire the same watch for a heavy discount of 20% or more off the original price, giving you a smaller target to hit if your goal is to break even in the future. 

The real reason you should buy a luxury watch

While the world of watches is unapologetically aware of value, money, and prestige, almost everyone in the industry—and everyone interview by Money—agreed on one thing: Buying one should be about your enjoyment of the watch itself, not the possibility of getting a return on your investment. Above all, it’s piece of jewelry you wear, something emotional and personal, not something soulless like an index fund or cache of bullion.

“I always tell people to buy something they like, not something for an investment,” says Altieri. “It’s not a bar of gold, you get to enjoy and wear it.”

“People should buy watches they want to wear,” agrees Adams. “Don’t ever get a watch that’s just going to sit somewhere.”

Reports: Russian Jet Shot In Syrian Airspace

A US official told the Reuters news agency, speaking on condition of anonymity, that the assessment was based on detection of the heat signature of the jet.

It comes as  Barack Obama and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the need to contain escalating tensions with Russia over the incident which has triggered a major diplomatic confrontation.

Turkish officials said two Russian planes approached the Turkish border and were warned before one of them was shot down, adding their information shows Turkish airspace was repeatedly violated.

NATO said the incursion into Turkish airspace lasted 17 seconds, but Moscow claims its plane was over Syria when it was hit.

Russia has also claimed one of the aircraft's pilots was killed by gunfire from the ground as he parachuted from the plane.

But a Turkish official has claimed the two pilots are still alive and is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin said the jet "did not in any way threaten Turkey" and the incident will have "serious consequences" for relations between the two countries.

A Russian soldier was also killed while searching for the pilots after his helicopter was shot at in Syria, the Russian military said.

Sky News Foreign Affairs Editor Sam Kiley said claims the pilots are still alive "is in direct contradiction with what the Turkish-speaking rebels on the ground have said".

"This may be good news for the families if they have survived - but we have seen published videos of what appears to be the bodies of two different men ... I think the assumption remains (they are dead) and that the Turks might be a little bit behind with their information," he said.

The downing of the jet is the first time a NATO member's armed forces have shot down a Russian or Soviet military aircraft since the 1950s.

Amazon turns N.Y. subway into Nazi train

“What if the Nazis won World War II?” That’s the premise of a new Amazon Prime show, but an ad campaign to promote it is backfiring with some New York subway riders.

To promote “The Man in the High Castle” — which envisions an alternate history of the United States occupied by Axis powers — the retail behemoth wrapped New York subway cars and outfitted their interiors in a décor that mixes the stars and stripes with symbols of the Third Reich and Imperial Japan, such as the Iron Cross and the Rising Sun. (They did, wisely, forgo using a swastika.)

The ads caught New Yorkers’ eyes, all right. But they also outraged some riders, the New York Post reported. The Anti-Defamation League’s New York chapter issued a statement criticizing the ad campaign as tone deaf but acknowledging that it was within First Amendment protections.

“This ad campaign has a feel of exploiting things that are so sensitive to so many people,” Evan Bernstein, New York regional director for the Anti-Defamation League, said in a written statement. “We’re not saying that people don’t have a right to express themselves. We’re just saying that it has a level of insensitivity. We would hope that the people who distributed it will think twice about putting these symbols on more public transportation.”

Bernstein said part of the problem is that the ads just come at you, without context. The show is an adventure in alternative history, and it’s based on a story by Philip K. Dick, the futuristic writer whose tales also formed the basis of “Bladerunner,” “Total Recall,” “Minority Report” and other science fiction movies. But the ads conjure too much history for some. (NOTE: Amazon chief executive Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

“On the television program, which explains this is the notion of an America controlled by Hitler, you get that context,” Bernstein says. “On the train, seeing the American flag paired with a Nazi symbol is viscerally offensive, because there is no context as to what it means. The fact that the flag is spread across the seats only compounds the effect.”

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which oversees subway and rail lines in the greater New York metro area, found that the ads were within the bounds of its commercial advertising guidelines.

“The ads do not violate our content-neutral ad standards  ‎and thus we have no grounds to reject them,” MTA spokesman Kevin Ortiz said in an e-mail. “The MTA is a government agency and can’t accept or reject ads based on how we feel about them; we have to follow the standards approved by our board. Please note they’re commercial ads — they promote an original Amazon TV series, an alternative history show, based on a Philip K. Dick story.”

The campaign with wrapped subway cars started Nov. 15 and runs through Dec. 14 on the 42nd Street crosstown shuttle. Ortiz said 260 subway station posters have been up since Nov. 9 and will be in stations until Dec. 6. He declined to say how much Amazon laid out for the campaign.

We have a call in to Amazon’s press office. We’ll update when we learn more.

COP21: Malawi's battle to hold on to forests

In a one-room house in rural Malawi, the little face of six-year-old Rachel is framed in a soft white halo.

On a bamboo mat lies a maths book alongside a bundle of fine twigs that she shuffles to help her arithmetic.

The rest of the village is in total darkness but thanks to the lamp - bought with the help of UK government aid - Rachel’s school grades are improving now she can study at home.

In a nearby village, solar panels on a school roof - donated by the Scottish government - have improved results, as well as providing an extra income source from charging phones and car batteries.

“Please thank people in Scotland,” the head teacher asks me. “Thanks to the solar panel we even had one pupil go to national school.”

But these are rare examples of electricity in rural Malawi. This is one of the world’s poorest countries. Just 10% of people are on the grid. And around 90% of power is produced by hydro-electric stations, which are beset by erratic rains caused - Malawian meteorologists say - by climate change.

Malawi’s own greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are minuscule. But the nation has one of the highest deforestation rates in the world as people desperate for fuelwood hack into the once-rich forests.

Deforestation reduces the ability of forests to soak up CO2. It also loosens soil, which then releases carbon dioxide.

What’s more, in heavy rains, the loosened soil cascades down the hills. This means aquifers don’t get replenished, rivers burst their banks, and silt and branches clog up the hydropower plants.

Escom, the body that owns the hydro dams, says reservoir capacity has been reduced by two thirds as a result of siltation from forest felling. There are constant black-outs for the few people and businesses who have grid electricity at all.

So what’s Malawi’s answer to its climate and energy crisis? Well, it is bidding to build two coal-fired power stations. Its politicians realise these will swell the global emissions which are already cranking up temperatures, but they say Malawi needs the power for development. Its emissions up to 2040 are projected to increase by 38%.

Coal, they say, is the least bad option because it offers the opportunity for the country to address deforestation.

Malawi, like most other nations has submitted its pledge on energy and climate (known as an INDC) to the United Nations. It has offered to reforest its hills, expand the use of clean cookstoves and get more solar energy – conditional on help from rich nations as part of the Paris deal.

But no-one should underestimate the scale of Malawi’s challenge. The water catchment above the capital Lilongwe is under such severe assault from wood-cutters that the Army is on stand-by.

The authorities accept that they can’t punish the poor charcoal sellers but their efforts to catch the masterminds of the trade are said to have been bedevilled by corruption.

Part of Malawi’s solution is to have two million efficient cookstoves in operation by 2020. The population is booming and this won’t fulfil national demand.

But each stove, made at low cost of clay by local women, is said to use less than half as much wood as a traditional three-stone open fire.

Another gizmo on trial – a thermoelectric generator developed with Irish aid - can be bolted on to a cookstove to create electricity for charging phones and LED lights. The current is created by the differential in temperature between two metal parts.

This invention will only make a small dent in Malawi's energy needs, though. Lord Stern’s team of international experts on climate economics have concluded that climate change can’t be tackled in countries like Malawi where the population is still 80% rural and where people degrade the land to meet their needs.

The only solution, the team says, is for developing countries to plan densely-packed cities with excellent public transport, powered by renewables – Malawi has an excellent solar resource.

And the same shortcomings are disbarring the country from attracting large-scale investments in renewables. Paddy Padmanathan, a businessman installing solar thermal power on an epic scale in North Africa, told us Malawi’s development was not sufficiently advanced for that sort of project.

“It's the institutional capacity in many of these countries. There are not enough people who can manage these things in the government structures, who know how to put in place the right policies and procedures and procurement programmes," he said.

Meanwhile despite the campaign against coal by environmentalists in the West, the pressure to burn coal in Malawi is growing.

We visited the Kukoma cooking oil factory which burns huge quantities of wood for its boilers. The owner Mohamed Ameen Nathanie is considering whether to install coal-fired boilers for a more consistent burn.

He asks me: “Do you want me to burn the wood from the countryside – or the coal… you choose!”

Tunisia bus of presidential guards targeted in blast

people have been killed in the blast, the interior ministry said.

The explosion, during rush hour in the city's main avenue, was an attack, a presidential source said. 

Tunisia has been targeted by the Islamic State group, including an attack by a gunman on the beach resort of Sousse in June, killing 38 people, mostly foreign tourists.

The North African state is believed to be the biggest exporter of jihadis, with the authorities saying at least 3,000 of its nationals fighting in Iraq and Syria.

The explosion happened at a bus stop where the presidential guard picks up and drops off their staff, reports the BBC's Rana Jawad from Tunis.

The bus stop was near the former headquarters of the party of deposed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, she says.

The roads in the city were already clogged up because of heavy rain and flooding, when the explosion hit the bus on Mohamed V Avenue, our reporter adds.

It was not clear whether a bomb had detonated or an explosive had been fired at the bus, presidential and security sources said, Reuters news agency reports.

. The tree-lined Mohamed V Avenue is not only within walking distance of many well-guarded ministries, but also close to cafes, shops and cinemas. The area was busy when the blast occurred, with cars and pedestrians heading home. 

What has really shocked people is that the attackers, if reports of an attack are confirmed, got so close to members of the presidential guard. 

The Tunisian government had tightened security following two attacks this year, with a high number of security forces visible very close to where the explosion happened. 

Both the prime minister and interior minister are at the scene.

It was not clear whether a bomb had detonated or an explosive had been fired at the bus, presidential and security sources said, Reuters news agency reports. 

Tunisians are bewildered and shocked. The tree-lined Mohamed V Avenue is not only within walking distance of many well-guarded ministries, but also close to cafes, shops and cinemas. The area was busy when the blast occurred, with cars and pedestrians heading home. 

What has really shocked people is that the attackers, if reports of an attack are confirmed, got so close to members of the presidential guard. 

The Tunisian government had tightened security following two attacks this year, with a high number of security forces visible very close to where the explosion happened. 

Both the prime minister and interior minister are at the scene.

Paris Terror Attacks: New Suspect Sought

Mohamed Abrini was caught on CCTV footage at a petrol station in Ressons on 11 November, Belgium's federal prosecutor said.

He was driving a Renault Clio used in the attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people and injured hundreds of others.

The 26-year-old Abdeslam, who has been the subject of an international manhunt, was also seen in the car on the motorway to the French capital.

German police today carried out a search of rural areas near Hannover following a tip-off from a member of the public that Abdeslam may be hiding out in the region.

Abdeslam is suspected of playing at least a logistical role in the coordinated shooting and suicide bombings in the French capital on 13 November.

A statement from the federal prosecutor's office said: "Salah Abdeslam was filmed in a gas station in Ressons ... together with a person who has been identified as Mohamed Abrini, born 27 December 1984.

"The latter was driving the Renault Clio used two days later for committing the attacks.

"The Investigating Judge has issued a European and International arrest warrant against Mohamed Abrini."

Authorities have warned that Abrini is "dangerous" and "probably armed", adding that the public should not approach him.

Belgian authorities have also charged a fifth person in connection with the attacks following the arrest of several people in Brussels and Liege.

The unnamed suspect was arrested on suspicion of "participation in the activities of a terrorist group and terrorist murders", the federal prosecutor said.

As the Europe-wide investigation continues, France's President Francois Hollande has travelled to Washington for talks with President Barack Obama.

Speaking at the White House, Mr Hollande said the US and France have agreed to step up strikes targeting Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq.

Mr Obama spoke about the long friendship between the two countries, saying: "We stand by our friends in good times and in bad, no matter what".

He added: "We are here today to declare that the United States and France stand united in total solidarity to deliver justice to these terrorists and those who sent them and to defend our nations."

Mr Obama described Islamic State as a "barbaric terrorist group", adding that "its murderous ideology poses a serious threat to all of us".

Essay: Why I will not apologise for ISIL

With rare exception, Muslims appearing on mainstream Western news outlets are asked, in some way, to apologise for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). At a minimum, they are expected to denounce and condemn the terrorist attacks in Paris - but not the one in Beirut the day before, perpetrated by the same terrorists. Some call it a litmus test, but I think it's more pernicious than that, and it extends from the media, as most things do, into popular consciousness and daily interactions with Muslims.

For example, at a book festival, where I was discussing literature, a woman in the audience asked if I was Muslim. I don't usually answer questions about my religion because I believe one's spiritual inclination is a private affair. Because I hesitated, she assumed that I wasn't, so I reflexively corrected her that I am Muslim, because I'm proud of my religious heritage, even though I resent the question. She followed up - because there's always a follow up to that non-question prelude - with: "What do you think of what happened in Paris?" And that is not really a question either.

I'll say here, as I said then, that I do not apologise for ISIL, nor will I answer the endless demands for Muslim individuals to condemn their attacks. The same question isn't posed to non-Muslims, so I can only assume that I am asked to distance myself from ISIL because the belief is that I am associated with them. It follows then that the person asking the question assumes I am a monster, one who must prove otherwise to avoid being shunned or worse.

Most of the time, at least where mainstream media is concerned, those who grovel and condemn are not believed anyway, because it's not really a question in the first place. "Do you condemn ISIL?" in any verbal form is an accusation, a linguistic affront delineating "us" and "them". It is an insult and an offence. And I will not engage with it.

The West, principally the United States, has plundered and laid waste to cities across our planet. They decimated Iraq, apparently for corporate profit. One of the most ancient civilisations on our planet, splendid and magnificent even under a tyrant, now lies in ruins, her sophisticated society dismembered and degraded in unspeakable and still untold ways. The tentacles of Western terrorism have reached to every corner of their nation, every layer of their lives, every moment of their culture and economy. The instability and denigration instigated by Western forces then marched to other Middle Eastern nations, destroying one country after another. The same has been done throughout Africa and Latin America.

But I have never, not even once, seen an Arab, African, or Latin American newscaster demand that a Westerner prove his or her humanity as a precondition for simple conversation. Most public personalities of the world seem to comprehend that doing so would preclude an intellectual and nuanced discourse, yet this fundamental truth seems to elude most mainstream Western journalists and politicians, particularly in the US.

Despite the fact that the West has visited misery across our planet, even the most simple of citizens in the world understand that ordinary US citizens are not to blame, and they seem to always welcome North Americans as visitors, immigrants and workers.

I don't fully understand why North Americans - as a mainstream collective, but not necessarily as individuals or subgroups - persistently prove to be an exception in this regard; why they seem to be socially or spiritually impervious to the humanity of others; why they remain intellectually immune even to data, like the fact that of the nearly one million refugees who came to the US since it began its wars in the Middle East in the 1990s, not one - really, not a single one - has been involved in terrorism, and therefore the argument that accepting destitute Syrian refugees poses mortal risks is obnoxiously baseless. Or the fact that, according to the FBI, the overwhelming majority of acts of terrorism in the US are committed by white Christian males.

To some extent, I believe the answer is in culture, American exceptionalism, and white privilege - which is not always white. The epitome of white privilege is the ability to be an individual; to never be required to answer for the sins of those who belong to your socioreligious grouping, but to simultaneously share in the glory of its members' achievements. I use this term to describe a dominant culture, which, although sometimes multiethnic, conforms to white Christian supremacy.

People of the dominant culture - typically white, Christian Americans - rarely read our books, watch our films, or examine our lives in meaningful or nuanced ways. They have little interest in our languages, music, dance, or art, and only a small proportion have ever travelled to our lands as learners or curious fellow humans.

The sense of American exceptionalism, or supremacy, tends to dampen and even obviate curiosity and, ultimately, empathy. On the other hand, people of colour and people of other nations are voracious consumers of American culture. We watch Hollywood films, read books by and about white American life. We understand Western history and current affairs. We know Western poets, writers, musicians, artists, thinkers, leaders. We cry when they are hurt, celebrate their celebrity joys, and take sides in their battles. We comprehend even the nuance of their regional differences. We see Western white Christian humanity in a way they have never seen ours.

So it does not occur to us to demand that individual white Western Christians apologise for decimating the greatest seats of Arab culture; for instigating and fuelling civil wars throughout the world; for financing and cheering the destruction and erasure of Palestine; for the endless CIA coups of our elected leaders; for the installation of tyrant client regimes; for the theft of resources; for war after war after war; for torture; for drones and for pollution.

In the final analysis, white privilege is not really a privilege, and American exceptionalism is an intellectual anaesthetic. They are barriers to social and spiritual evolution, toxic things that suffocate reason and pollute discourse with frightening ignorance and arrogance, exemplified now by the ceaseless requirement that Arab and Muslim individuals perpetually prove their humanity and justify their lives on demand.