Turkey-Russia: The inevitable clash of the titans

In the aftermath of the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane, the crisis between Turkey and Russia is rapidly escalating. Each country has become hostage to its own political posturing, with both Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, unable and unwilling to back down and step back.

For both leaders, any concession is seen as an act of weakness. And any compromise seems personally unacceptable and politically untenable. For both men, the imperative is to "save face" and to maintain an image of decisiveness.

For both leaders, a combination of populist, personal appeal and authoritarian politics has long served as a foundation for power, writes Giragosian [AP]

This mutual "bluff and bluster" is largely rooted in the similarities of the two presidents. For Erdogan, a personal reliance on impulsive and sometimes rash decisions has long defined his well-crafted image as a strong, unyielding leader. From that perspective, any concession or compromise in this time of crisis would be an unacceptable retreat.

Sharing this trait, Putin is equally hostage to his own political image, as an authoritative leader embracing and exploiting crisis and conflict. And for Putin, especially following his broader confrontation with the West, the stakes are even higher, as he desperately needs to cultivate his personal aura of strength.

Beyond the international ramifications of the crisis between Turkey and Russia, however, it is actually the domestic political context that is the primary driver of discord. For both leaders, the primary audience is domestic.

In Turkey, a well-established trend of increasingly authoritarian rule and an aggressive intolerance for dissent and criticism has forged an unprecedented degree of polarisation. And for Russia, a tendency for authoritarian governance has been even more obvious, with much less of Turkey's trappings of democracy.

---

A combination of populist, personal appeal and authoritarian politics has long served as a foundation for power for each man. For Erdogan's base of supporters, this has always been a winning formula, while in Putin's case, this was even more effective, exploiting a deeper Russian dependence on strongmen over statesmen.

Yet, this same source of political strength can become an equally powerful threat, for two reasons. First, this over-reliance on personal strength can be dangerously vulnerable to any false step or miscalculation, where the decisive leader can falter and fail.

Each leader has become prisoner of their own rhetoric, which makes it even more difficult for any one side to climb down and step back.

A second inherent risk is when popular expectations become dangerously high, and each round of the crisis necessitates even greater force or determination.

This is especially dangerous in this case, as both Erdogan and Putin are facing a new rival - each other. What is new in this case is that both leaders have traditionally bullied, bluffed and bribed their opponents.

Erdogan has been most comfortable with his own aggressive challenge to the United States and Europe, demanding and usually getting what he wants. Putin has also embraced confrontation and conflict, often utilising a "calculated recklessness" in getting his way. This time, however, these similar leaders are face to face, in a clash that for the first time, cannot be won by either. 

These two leaders are too alike, and their tactics are too similar for any one side to gain the upper hand. Yet, for these same reasons, each leader has become prisoner of his own rhetoric, which makes it even more difficult for any one side to climb down.

---

Despite the personal and political similarities of the two  presidents, there is one key difference that may suggest that it is the Turkish side that will back down first. The difference stems from the distinct division between the Turkish and Russian cases.

More specifically, Turkey has a much deeper and more durable institutional system. Unlike Putin in Russia, whose institutions are significantly weaker and much more subordinate to the individual president, Erdogan has never been able to fully control or contain the inherent power of Turkish institutions.

Turkey's court system, business class and even armed forces have never fully succumbed or surrendered. And despite the country's pronounced polarisation and subjugated media, the institutional legitimacy of Turkey's institutions remains much more resilient than the populist political appeal of any one individual.

Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies Center, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Pope Francis Says World Nearing Climate-Change ‘Suicide’

Andrew Medichini—APPope Francis talks to journalists during a press conference he held aboard the flight on the way back to Italy on Nov. 30, 2015

Pope Francis said the U.N.’s conference on climate change that began in Paris on Monday may be one of the last opportunities for countries to take steps toward avoiding an environmental catastrophe.

“I am not sure, but I can say to you ‘now or never,’” he said when asked if he thought the Paris summit would be a turning point aboard the papal plane on Monday, Reuters reports. “Every year the problems are getting worse. We are at the limits. If I may use a strong word I would say that we are at the limits of suicide.”

Pope Francis, who pushed for Catholics to pay attention to climate change last year, pointed to rising sea levels and Greenland’s melting glaciers as evidence of a need for nations to act during a conference with reporters on a flight back to Rome after his six-day visit to Africa.

“I am sure that the [Paris delegates] have goodwill to do something. I hope it turns out this way and I am praying that it will,” Francis said.

British terror suspect Jermaine Grant jailed in Kenya

Jermaine Grant, from London, was jailed for nine charges related to trying to illegally obtain Kenyan citizenship.

He faces separate charges of "conspiring to improvise an explosive device" and a trial in Mombasa is ongoing. He denies the terror charges.

Grant was arrested in 2011 when batteries and chemicals were discovered in his apartment in Mombasa. 

UK police - who have provided forensic assistance to Kenyan authorities - allege they were "precursors for making highly volatile explosive substances".

Samantha Lewthwaite, known as the "White Widow" and wanted in connection with the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005, is also suspected of being involved in the alleged plot.

She escaped arrest in Kenya in 2011 and has been missing since then.

The sentencing of Grant comes after Mombasa High Court judge Martin Muya overturned an earlier acquittal on the Kenyan citizenship charges. 

He sentenced him to one year in prison for each of the charges.

House Votes to Block Obama Climate Rules

As President Barack Obama worked to hammer out a global climate agreement in Paris, Republicans in Congress moved to block his plan to force steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. power plants.

The House passed two resolutions Tuesday disapproving Obama’s power-plant rules and rendering them inoperative. A measure blocking an Environmental Protection Agency rule for existing power plants was approved 242-180, while a measure blocking a rule on future power plants was approved 235-188.

The votes come after the Senate approved identical motions last month under a little-used law that allows Congress to block executive actions it considers onerous. The measures now go to the White House, where they face almost-certain vetoes. Just four Democrats sided with Republicans to support the measures, which fell far short of the numbers needed to override a veto in both the House and Senate.

Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky., said GOP lawmakers were forcing a vote on the climate rule to “send a message to the climate conference in Paris that in America, there’s serious disagreement with the policies of this president.”

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said Obama wants to reduce carbon emissions, but his policies will kill jobs, increase electricity costs and decrease the reliability of the U.S. energy supply.

And Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., said he wished Obama took the threat posed by “radical jihadists” such as the Islamic State as seriously as he takes what Duncan called a “pseudoscientific threat” posed by climate change.

Democrats countered that the power-plant rules were important steps to slow global climate change that is already causing real harm through increased droughts, wildfires, floods and more severe storms.

Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., said it was regrettable that Republicans were trying to block the power-plant rules even as officials from more than 190 nearly countries and many of the world’s largest private companies gathered in Paris to work out details of a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Mustafa Yalcin—Getty ImagesBarack Obama speaks during a news conference at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Centre in Paris on Dec. 1, 2015.

The global agreement “will prevent us from further overheating the earth and causing major disruptions to people’s lives, their property and to the global economy,” Pallone said. “We know that (climate change) will endanger our children’s future if we don’t act now.”

The Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan requires states to cut carbon emissions by 32 percent by 2030, based on emissions in 2005. Each state has a customized target and is responsible for drawing up an effective plan to meet its goal.

The EPA says it has authority to enact the plan under the Clean Air Act.

Twenty-five mostly Republican states, led by Texas and West Virginia, are contesting the plan in court, calling it an unlawful power grab that will kill jobs and drive up electricity costs. Several utilities, the National Mining Association and the nation’s largest privately owned coal company also are suing the EPA.

GOP lawmakers challenged the administration’s action under the little-used Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to block executive actions with simple majority votes. The maneuver is subject to a presidential veto and has rarely been successful.

The White House issued a veto threat last month, saying the resolutions undermine public health protections of the Clean Air Act and “stop critical U.S. efforts to reduce dangerous carbon pollution from power plants.”

Speaking in Paris Tuesday, Obama said parts of a global climate agreement should be legally binding. His declaration was both a boost to climate negotiators seeking a tough accord and a challenge to Republicans in Congress, many of whom reject the idea of global warming.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said Republicans were in step with the American people, who want jobs and economic growth.

“I think when you weigh the costs and the benefits against these so-called legally binding obligations they don’t add up,” Ryan told reporters. “I think it’s very clear people want jobs.”

Focus on ISIL: Obama urges Turkey and Russia

President Barack Obama on Tuesday urged Turkey and Russia to set aside tensions over the downing of a Russian warplane and focus on the common priority of combating the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the U.S. president vouched for the NATO ally's right to self-defense and pledged a solid U.S. commitment “to Turkey's security and its sovereignty.” Yet he emphasized the need for Turkey and Russia to “de-escalate” their conflict and not get distracted from the campaign against IS and efforts to resolve Syria's long-running civil war.

“We all have a common enemy. That is ISIL,” Obama said. “I want to make sure that we focus on that threat.”

Tensions between Ankara and Moscow have erupted into a diplomatic crisis since Turkey shot down a Russian jet it accused of violating its airspace less than two weeks ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed Turkey shot the plane down to protect oil he says Turkey is illegally importing from ISIL — a charge Turkey vehemently denies. Turkey has insisted it won't apologize for downing the plane, which also led Russia to slap a package of new sanctions against Turkish products.

Erdogan has said he would be ready to quit office if allegations that Turkey traded oil with ISIL were proved.

“I will say something very strong here,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by the state-run Anadolu news agency at the UN climate talks near Paris, which Putin is also attending.

“If such a thing is proven, the nobility of our nation would require that I would not stay in office,” he said.

Challenging Putin, who has refused to meet Erdogan since the Nov. 24 incident in Yamadi, in Syria's Latakia province, Erdogan said: “And I tell Mr. Putin, ‘Would you stay in that office?’ I say this clearly.”

The spat between two countries seen as critical to resolving the Syria crisis has threatened to undermine Obama's efforts to expand the U.S.-led coalition. After ISIL claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks and shooting down a Russian passenger jet in Egypt, Obama had sought to turn the outrage across Europe into newfound resolve for stepping up the fight against ISIL.

Obama has been working to persuade Russia to focus its airstrikes in Syria against ISIL, instead of U.S.-backed rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad. Further muddying the diplomatic picture, Moscow has steadfastly supported Assad while the U.S. and Turkey insist he must leave power as part of a political solution to Syria's civil war.

Sitting down with Erdogan in Paris on the sidelines of global climate talks, Obama said the U.S. was very interested in accelerating its military relationship with Turkey. He also praised Turkey for generously accepting refugees fleeing violence in Syria, and credited Turkey with strengthening security along its border.

Turkey, too, hopes to avoid tensions with Russia, Erdogan told reporters as he and Obama finished their roughly hour-long meeting. Pointing to a new diplomatic effort in Vienna aimed at a ceasefire in Syria's civil war, Erdogan waxed optimistic and said he was hoping it would result in a “sigh of relief for the entire region.” The U.S, Russia and Turkey are all taking part in those talks.

“As the coalition forces, we are determined to keep up the fight against ISIL, and ISIL forces on the ground,” Erdogan said through a translator.

Yet in a fresh reminder of strains with Moscow, Erdogan repeated his denouncement of Russian airstrikes in Syria's Turkmen region. He said more than 500 civilians had been killed recently in an area where he said ISIL fighters are not operating.

“They are Turkish descendants,” Erdogan said. “That area is continuously bombed.”

Heavy Flooding Has Shut Down the Indian City of Chennai for the Second Time in a Month

STRDEL—AFP/Getty ImagesRescue workers and volunteers use an inflatable boat to take residents through floodwaters in Chennai, India, on Dec. 1, 2015, during a downpour of heavy rain in the southern Indian city

Heavy rains lashed the southern Indian city of Chennai on Monday and Tuesday, causing widespread flooding in the major metropolis for the second time in less than a month.

Authorities issued a flood warning and educational institutions were closed, with vehicles seen afloat in the floodwaters in many parts of the city. All flight operations at Chennai airport were also suspended after the runway and tarmac were submerged, the Indian Express newspaper reported.

More rain is expected across the state of Tamil Nadu — of which Chennai is the capital — on Wednesday, and the army was deployed late Tuesday evening to manage the situation. The death toll from rain-related incidents in the state has now risen to 188 over roughly the past three weeks, including dozens killed during similar flooding in mid-November.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter that he spoke to the state’s Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa and “assured all possible support.”

UK parliament to vote on strikes against ISIL in Syria

The British parliament is set to debate and vote on a motion authorising the use of military force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group in Syria.

The move comes amid  divisions over the planned intervention within Prime Minister David Cameron's own Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party.

Several Conservative MPs are expected to vote on Wednesday against the proposal and the government will probably rely on Labour MPs breaking ranks with their leader Jeremy Corbyn to approve the move.

The government in its motion says the legal basis for the proposed intervention is in line with UN Resolution 2249, which calls on member states to "eradicate" ISIL's safe havens in Iraq and Syria.

"[The government] acknowledges the importance of seeking to avoid civilian casualties, using the UK’s particular capabilities; notes the government will not deploy UK troops in ground combat operations," the motion reads.

The plan to strike ISIL in Syria is backed by a majority of the British people, according to two recent polls, but has prompted anti-war demonstrations.

Thousands turned out onto the streets of London and other cities across the UK on Saturday to voice their opposition to the air strikes and hundreds protested outside parliament on Tuesday, the day Cameron announced the debate.

Critics argue that striking Syria will now will put civilian lives at risk and further complicate the Syrian Civil War, which has already killed hundreds of thousands.

Cameron drew up plans to hit ISIL in Syria after the November 13 attacks in Paris, which left 130 people dead.

British forces are already targeting ISIL in Iraq and have previously targeted British ISIL members with drone strikes in Syria.