Suu Kyi Meets Burma’s Outgoing President

(NAYPYITAW, Burma) — Nearly a month after her party’s crushing election win, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi held closed-door talks with Burma’s outgoing president Wednesday to discuss what both hope will be a “smooth” transition of power.

Because it took so long for the two to meet, there were some concerns the still powerful military would not easily accept the results.

Suu Kyi was expected to meet with Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief, later Wednesday.

The Southeast Asian nation started moving from a half-century of dictatorship toward democracy in 2011, when military rulers inexplicably agreed to hand over power to a nominally civilian government headed by President Thein Sein, a general turned “reformist.”

The Asahi Shimbun—Getty ImagesBurma's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi speaks during a press conference ahead of the general election on Nov. 5, 2015 in Rangoon, Burma

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy easily won the Nov. 8 vote, securing enough seats in both the lower and upper parliament to form a government. Though a clause in the 2008 military-drafted constitution bars her from the presidency, she has vowed to rule by proxy.

Presidential spokesman Ye Htut told reporters the meeting at Thein Sein’s residence in the sprawling capital, Naypyitaw, lasted about 45 minutes.

“The main point was to talk about a smooth transition and transfer of power to the newly elected government,” he said, “and to discuss mutual cooperation in the future.”

Another goal, he said, was simply to “ease people’s concerns.”

Despite the NLD’s landslide victory, most analysts agree, it would be almost impossible to govern without the support of the military establishment. By law, the military still controls a quarter of the seats in parliament, giving it veto power over all constitutional amendments. It also has a grip on all key security portfolios.

Ye Htut told reporters the meeting between Suu Kyi and Thein Sein was amicable.

The president congratulated “The Lady,” as she is popularly known, for leading her party to victory. And Suu Kyi said she was thankful that the elections were free and fair, as promised.

The transfer of power should take place in February after the new Parliament meets and votes on a new president, along with two vice presidents.

The NLD will face a variety of challenges, not least of which is the huge tide of pent-up expectations evidenced by the vote. Its lack of experience in public administration is another big question.

But the victory is a sweet second chance for the party, which also won a landslide victory in the first election it contested, in 1990, only to see the results annulled by the military, and many of its leading members harassed and jailed.

Suu Kyi was put under house arrest prior to the 1990 election, and spent 15 of the next 22 years mostly confined to her lakeside villa in Rangoon. She was under house arrest when she won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize.

UN says ISIL exploiting Libya security vacuum

ISIL has conducted several high-profile atrocities in Libya and holds parts of Sirte [Al Jazeera]

The UN has given warning that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group is exploiting the political instability in Libya to expand its influence there.

Since 2013, the group's Libyan affiliate experienced "several waves" of reinforcements, including Libyan returnees from the wars in Syria and Iraq and foreign volunteers, the report published on Tuesday said.

"While currently concentrated in its stronghold in Sirte, ISIL could seek local alliances to expand its territorial control, also entailing the risk of motivating additional foreign terrorist fighters to join the group in Libya," the report says.

The report says the weakened security situation in the country had given ISIL's commanders in Iraq and Syria their "best" opportunity to expand its control beyond those two states.

ISIL's commander in the region, Abu al-Mughirah al-Qahtani, is quoted citing Libya's strategic and geographic benefits.

"Libya has a great importance because it is in Africa and south of Europe ... it is also a gate to the African desert stretching to a number of African countries," Qahtani said.

The group has about 2,000 to 3,000 fighters in the country and controls large parts of two different cities, Derna and Sirte.

An estimated 800 of the group's fighters in Libya are believed to have fought in Syria and Iraq before returning home. The group's leadership in the country include Iraqi, Yemeni and Libyan members.

After initially taking a "soft" approach to win over locals, ISIL has implemented its strict interpretation of religion; prohibiting tobacco, imposing veils and forcing underage girls into marriage.

"However, viewed as an outsider group, ISIL is not embedded in local communities and has not succeeded in gaining the population's support," the report says.

The group is currently fighting on multiple fronts against the Tripoli and Tobruk-based governments, as well as factions affiliated with al-Qaeda.

ISIL's presence in Libya came to international attention when it broadcast footage of its fighters murdering Christians from Egypt and East Africa.

Turkey-Russia: The inevitable clash of the titans

In the aftermath of the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane, the crisis between Turkey and Russia is rapidly escalating. Each country has become hostage to its own political posturing, with both Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, unable and unwilling to back down and step back.

For both leaders, any concession is seen as an act of weakness. And any compromise seems personally unacceptable and politically untenable. For both men, the imperative is to "save face" and to maintain an image of decisiveness.

For both leaders, a combination of populist, personal appeal and authoritarian politics has long served as a foundation for power, writes Giragosian [AP]

This mutual "bluff and bluster" is largely rooted in the similarities of the two presidents. For Erdogan, a personal reliance on impulsive and sometimes rash decisions has long defined his well-crafted image as a strong, unyielding leader. From that perspective, any concession or compromise in this time of crisis would be an unacceptable retreat.

Sharing this trait, Putin is equally hostage to his own political image, as an authoritative leader embracing and exploiting crisis and conflict. And for Putin, especially following his broader confrontation with the West, the stakes are even higher, as he desperately needs to cultivate his personal aura of strength.

Beyond the international ramifications of the crisis between Turkey and Russia, however, it is actually the domestic political context that is the primary driver of discord. For both leaders, the primary audience is domestic.

In Turkey, a well-established trend of increasingly authoritarian rule and an aggressive intolerance for dissent and criticism has forged an unprecedented degree of polarisation. And for Russia, a tendency for authoritarian governance has been even more obvious, with much less of Turkey's trappings of democracy.

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A combination of populist, personal appeal and authoritarian politics has long served as a foundation for power for each man. For Erdogan's base of supporters, this has always been a winning formula, while in Putin's case, this was even more effective, exploiting a deeper Russian dependence on strongmen over statesmen.

Yet, this same source of political strength can become an equally powerful threat, for two reasons. First, this over-reliance on personal strength can be dangerously vulnerable to any false step or miscalculation, where the decisive leader can falter and fail.

Each leader has become prisoner of their own rhetoric, which makes it even more difficult for any one side to climb down and step back.

A second inherent risk is when popular expectations become dangerously high, and each round of the crisis necessitates even greater force or determination.

This is especially dangerous in this case, as both Erdogan and Putin are facing a new rival - each other. What is new in this case is that both leaders have traditionally bullied, bluffed and bribed their opponents.

Erdogan has been most comfortable with his own aggressive challenge to the United States and Europe, demanding and usually getting what he wants. Putin has also embraced confrontation and conflict, often utilising a "calculated recklessness" in getting his way. This time, however, these similar leaders are face to face, in a clash that for the first time, cannot be won by either. 

These two leaders are too alike, and their tactics are too similar for any one side to gain the upper hand. Yet, for these same reasons, each leader has become prisoner of his own rhetoric, which makes it even more difficult for any one side to climb down.

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Despite the personal and political similarities of the two  presidents, there is one key difference that may suggest that it is the Turkish side that will back down first. The difference stems from the distinct division between the Turkish and Russian cases.

More specifically, Turkey has a much deeper and more durable institutional system. Unlike Putin in Russia, whose institutions are significantly weaker and much more subordinate to the individual president, Erdogan has never been able to fully control or contain the inherent power of Turkish institutions.

Turkey's court system, business class and even armed forces have never fully succumbed or surrendered. And despite the country's pronounced polarisation and subjugated media, the institutional legitimacy of Turkey's institutions remains much more resilient than the populist political appeal of any one individual.

Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies Center, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own.

Pope Francis Says World Nearing Climate-Change ‘Suicide’

Andrew Medichini—APPope Francis talks to journalists during a press conference he held aboard the flight on the way back to Italy on Nov. 30, 2015

Pope Francis said the U.N.’s conference on climate change that began in Paris on Monday may be one of the last opportunities for countries to take steps toward avoiding an environmental catastrophe.

“I am not sure, but I can say to you ‘now or never,’” he said when asked if he thought the Paris summit would be a turning point aboard the papal plane on Monday, Reuters reports. “Every year the problems are getting worse. We are at the limits. If I may use a strong word I would say that we are at the limits of suicide.”

Pope Francis, who pushed for Catholics to pay attention to climate change last year, pointed to rising sea levels and Greenland’s melting glaciers as evidence of a need for nations to act during a conference with reporters on a flight back to Rome after his six-day visit to Africa.

“I am sure that the [Paris delegates] have goodwill to do something. I hope it turns out this way and I am praying that it will,” Francis said.

British terror suspect Jermaine Grant jailed in Kenya

Jermaine Grant, from London, was jailed for nine charges related to trying to illegally obtain Kenyan citizenship.

He faces separate charges of "conspiring to improvise an explosive device" and a trial in Mombasa is ongoing. He denies the terror charges.

Grant was arrested in 2011 when batteries and chemicals were discovered in his apartment in Mombasa. 

UK police - who have provided forensic assistance to Kenyan authorities - allege they were "precursors for making highly volatile explosive substances".

Samantha Lewthwaite, known as the "White Widow" and wanted in connection with the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005, is also suspected of being involved in the alleged plot.

She escaped arrest in Kenya in 2011 and has been missing since then.

The sentencing of Grant comes after Mombasa High Court judge Martin Muya overturned an earlier acquittal on the Kenyan citizenship charges. 

He sentenced him to one year in prison for each of the charges.

House Votes to Block Obama Climate Rules

As President Barack Obama worked to hammer out a global climate agreement in Paris, Republicans in Congress moved to block his plan to force steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. power plants.

The House passed two resolutions Tuesday disapproving Obama’s power-plant rules and rendering them inoperative. A measure blocking an Environmental Protection Agency rule for existing power plants was approved 242-180, while a measure blocking a rule on future power plants was approved 235-188.

The votes come after the Senate approved identical motions last month under a little-used law that allows Congress to block executive actions it considers onerous. The measures now go to the White House, where they face almost-certain vetoes. Just four Democrats sided with Republicans to support the measures, which fell far short of the numbers needed to override a veto in both the House and Senate.

Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky., said GOP lawmakers were forcing a vote on the climate rule to “send a message to the climate conference in Paris that in America, there’s serious disagreement with the policies of this president.”

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said Obama wants to reduce carbon emissions, but his policies will kill jobs, increase electricity costs and decrease the reliability of the U.S. energy supply.

And Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., said he wished Obama took the threat posed by “radical jihadists” such as the Islamic State as seriously as he takes what Duncan called a “pseudoscientific threat” posed by climate change.

Democrats countered that the power-plant rules were important steps to slow global climate change that is already causing real harm through increased droughts, wildfires, floods and more severe storms.

Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., said it was regrettable that Republicans were trying to block the power-plant rules even as officials from more than 190 nearly countries and many of the world’s largest private companies gathered in Paris to work out details of a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Mustafa Yalcin—Getty ImagesBarack Obama speaks during a news conference at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Centre in Paris on Dec. 1, 2015.

The global agreement “will prevent us from further overheating the earth and causing major disruptions to people’s lives, their property and to the global economy,” Pallone said. “We know that (climate change) will endanger our children’s future if we don’t act now.”

The Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan requires states to cut carbon emissions by 32 percent by 2030, based on emissions in 2005. Each state has a customized target and is responsible for drawing up an effective plan to meet its goal.

The EPA says it has authority to enact the plan under the Clean Air Act.

Twenty-five mostly Republican states, led by Texas and West Virginia, are contesting the plan in court, calling it an unlawful power grab that will kill jobs and drive up electricity costs. Several utilities, the National Mining Association and the nation’s largest privately owned coal company also are suing the EPA.

GOP lawmakers challenged the administration’s action under the little-used Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to block executive actions with simple majority votes. The maneuver is subject to a presidential veto and has rarely been successful.

The White House issued a veto threat last month, saying the resolutions undermine public health protections of the Clean Air Act and “stop critical U.S. efforts to reduce dangerous carbon pollution from power plants.”

Speaking in Paris Tuesday, Obama said parts of a global climate agreement should be legally binding. His declaration was both a boost to climate negotiators seeking a tough accord and a challenge to Republicans in Congress, many of whom reject the idea of global warming.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said Republicans were in step with the American people, who want jobs and economic growth.

“I think when you weigh the costs and the benefits against these so-called legally binding obligations they don’t add up,” Ryan told reporters. “I think it’s very clear people want jobs.”

Focus on ISIL: Obama urges Turkey and Russia

President Barack Obama on Tuesday urged Turkey and Russia to set aside tensions over the downing of a Russian warplane and focus on the common priority of combating the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

In a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the U.S. president vouched for the NATO ally's right to self-defense and pledged a solid U.S. commitment “to Turkey's security and its sovereignty.” Yet he emphasized the need for Turkey and Russia to “de-escalate” their conflict and not get distracted from the campaign against IS and efforts to resolve Syria's long-running civil war.

“We all have a common enemy. That is ISIL,” Obama said. “I want to make sure that we focus on that threat.”

Tensions between Ankara and Moscow have erupted into a diplomatic crisis since Turkey shot down a Russian jet it accused of violating its airspace less than two weeks ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed Turkey shot the plane down to protect oil he says Turkey is illegally importing from ISIL — a charge Turkey vehemently denies. Turkey has insisted it won't apologize for downing the plane, which also led Russia to slap a package of new sanctions against Turkish products.

Erdogan has said he would be ready to quit office if allegations that Turkey traded oil with ISIL were proved.

“I will say something very strong here,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by the state-run Anadolu news agency at the UN climate talks near Paris, which Putin is also attending.

“If such a thing is proven, the nobility of our nation would require that I would not stay in office,” he said.

Challenging Putin, who has refused to meet Erdogan since the Nov. 24 incident in Yamadi, in Syria's Latakia province, Erdogan said: “And I tell Mr. Putin, ‘Would you stay in that office?’ I say this clearly.”

The spat between two countries seen as critical to resolving the Syria crisis has threatened to undermine Obama's efforts to expand the U.S.-led coalition. After ISIL claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks and shooting down a Russian passenger jet in Egypt, Obama had sought to turn the outrage across Europe into newfound resolve for stepping up the fight against ISIL.

Obama has been working to persuade Russia to focus its airstrikes in Syria against ISIL, instead of U.S.-backed rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad. Further muddying the diplomatic picture, Moscow has steadfastly supported Assad while the U.S. and Turkey insist he must leave power as part of a political solution to Syria's civil war.

Sitting down with Erdogan in Paris on the sidelines of global climate talks, Obama said the U.S. was very interested in accelerating its military relationship with Turkey. He also praised Turkey for generously accepting refugees fleeing violence in Syria, and credited Turkey with strengthening security along its border.

Turkey, too, hopes to avoid tensions with Russia, Erdogan told reporters as he and Obama finished their roughly hour-long meeting. Pointing to a new diplomatic effort in Vienna aimed at a ceasefire in Syria's civil war, Erdogan waxed optimistic and said he was hoping it would result in a “sigh of relief for the entire region.” The U.S, Russia and Turkey are all taking part in those talks.

“As the coalition forces, we are determined to keep up the fight against ISIL, and ISIL forces on the ground,” Erdogan said through a translator.

Yet in a fresh reminder of strains with Moscow, Erdogan repeated his denouncement of Russian airstrikes in Syria's Turkmen region. He said more than 500 civilians had been killed recently in an area where he said ISIL fighters are not operating.

“They are Turkish descendants,” Erdogan said. “That area is continuously bombed.”