Powered By Blogger

Monday, January 4, 2016

How Corbyn's 'Revenge Reshuffle' Might Look

11:06, UK, Monday 04 January 2016
Syria conflict

Sophy Ridge

Senior Political Correspondent

Sophy Ridge
Jeremy Corbyn is preparing to change his top team in a reshuffle that could turn Labour into a "religious cult", according to a shadow minister.
Shadow culture secretary Michael Dugher warned that widespread sackings would leave a "politburo of seven" running the party.
Sources close to the Labour leader say Mr Corbyn is keen to make sure his shadow cabinet is speaking with a unanimous voice and stop divisions in his top team.
A shadow cabinet meeting is pencilled in for Tuesday lunchtime, so Mr Corbyn is likely to have to cancel it or complete his reshuffle by that deadline.
So who is in the frame for a promotion, and who could be about to beat a hasty retreat to the backbenches?
:: GOING UP?
:: Emily Thornberry
Emily Thornberry
Mrs Thornberry, one of Mr Corbyn's fellow Islington MPs, could be in for a big post.
The Labour leader is said to be keen to offer one of the big three positions (foreign, home or chancellor) to a woman, and the foreign affairs brief is the most likely to be up for grabs.
Mrs Thornberry has frontbench experience as shadow attorney general before Ed Miliband sacked her for posting a picture on Twitter of a white van outside a house draped in the St George's flag, which some said was patronising.
:: Clive Lewis
Clive Lewis
Mr Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is a keen Corbynite who could get his first taste for a shadow cabinet job after winning a seat in the 2015 election.
He served as a Territorial Army officer in Afghanistan so is a potential candidate for shadow defence secretary, and his appointment would be seen as a significant shift to the left.
:: Diane Abbott
Shadow cabinet reshuffle
Veteran MP Ms Abbott has been a frequent cheerleader for Mr Corbyn on the airwaves and will be hoping that her loyalty will be rewarded with a promotion.
Currently shadow international development secretary, a higher profile job would help Mr Corbyn achieve his aim of having more women in top shadow cabinet positions.
GOING DOWN?
:: Hilary Benn
Shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn MP
Mr Benn's very public disagreement with Mr Corbyn over airstrikes in Syria put him in the firing line, with some in Team Corbyn believing that it's untenable to have a shadow foreign secretary at odds with the leader over issues of war.
However, supporters claim that sacking Mr Benn could spark a mutiny among other Labour MPs. Instead he could be in for a sideways move or be left alone all together.
:: Maria Eagle
Maria Eagle
The shadow defence secretary fundamentally disagrees with Mr Corbyn's position on Syria and Trident, making her vulnerable in any reshuffle.
However, some in Camp Corbyn fear that if Maria Eagle is sacked then her twin sister Angela Eagle could also walk, so she may be moved to another shadow cabinet role.
:: Michael Dugher
Labour party annual conference 2015
Mr Dugher has stuck his head above the parapet (always dangerous) to speak out against a "revenge reshuffle". He voted in favour of air strikes in Syria and is from the centrist wing of the Labour Party, so could be vulnerable.
STAYING SAFE?
:: John McDonnell
Labour Party Conference
The shadow chancellor is Mr Corbyn's closest political ally and friend so he’s unlikely to be demoted.
:: Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham
Friends of the Labour leader say that Jeremy Corbyn is happy with Mr Burnham's performance so he’s not in the firing line.
However, a "job swap" has been suggested where Mr Burnham would become shadow foreign secretary and Mr Benn take over the home affairs brief.
Whether that would be acceptable to Mr Corbyn – who is keen to see a woman in one of the top posts – remains to be seen.
:: Dame Rosie Winterton
Shadow cabinet team named
The Chief Whip was initially believed to be vulnerable after the "free vote" on air strikes in Syria.
However, the Westminster rumour mill now suggests that she could be safe after numerous Labour MPs rowed in to support her in her job.

Bahrain cuts diplomatic ties with Iran

Bahrain says it is severing its diplomatic ties with Iran and has called upon Iranian diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours.
Isa al-Hamadi, the Bahraini minister of media affairs, made the announcement on Monday amid heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, after Saturday's attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran during protests against executions in the kingdom.
Bahrain frequently accuses Iran of being behind protests among its Shia population.
Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran on Sunday after Iranian protesters attacked its embassy in Tehran, following the kingdom's decision to execute Shia religious figure Nimr al-Nimr along with 46 other convicts on terrorism charges.
Iran's foreign ministry said that Saudi Arabia was using the attack on its embassy in Tehran as a pretext to fuel tensions - after being given a 48-hour deadline to remove its diplomatic mission from Riyadh.
"Iran ... is committed to provide diplomatic security based on international conventions. But Saudi Arabia, which thrives on tensions, has used this incident as an excuse to fuel the tensions," Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari said in televised remarks on Monday.
But Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, accused Iranian authorities of being complicit in the attack, saying that documents and computers were taken from the embassy building.
He said that the Saudi diplomatic representative had sought help from the Iranian foreign ministry when the building was stormed, but the requests were ignored three times.
The secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani, also condemned the attacks against the Saudi embassy, saying that Iranian authorities bear full responsibility for the failing to protect the diplomatic mission.
The Saudi foreign ministry announced on Sunday that its diplomatic staff had been evacuated from Tehran and were on their way back to the kingdom.
The war of words between Saudi Arabia and Iran started on Saturday, after the kingdom's announcement that Nimr was among 47 people executed on terrorism charges.
Many of the men executed had been linked to attacks in Saudi Arabia between 2003 and 2006, blamed on al-Qaeda.
Four of those executed were said to be Shia.
Nimr was accused of inciting violence and leading anti-government protests in the country's east in 2011. He was convicted of sedition, disobedience and bearing arms.
He did not deny the political charges against him, but said he never carried weapons or called for violence.
Nimr spent more than a decade studying theology in predominantly Shia Iran.
Surprise move
Speaking to Al Jazeera from Beirut, Joseph Kechichian, a Middle East analyst, said that the Saudi decision to suspend diplomatic ties was "quite a surprise".
"This is an escalation that will create havoc in the region," he said.
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that the Saudi decision was likely to have repercussions for the region, particularly concerning the Syrian negotiations.
"Western powers must increase efforts to safeguard this process and encourage the Saudis and Iran to continue their participation [in the Syria peace talks]," she told Al Jazeera from London.
"These events further set back the urgently needed rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, and spell further trouble for an already fragile region."
The diplomatic spat follows executions in Saudi Arabia of 47 people accused of inciting violence and carrying out attacks [EPA]

Business: What's In Store For 2016?


Foreseeing the fortunes of the FTSE 100 isn’t easy, just ask the Telegraph's Ben Martin who tipped oil minnow Tullow to be the golden boy of 2015.
The gold rusted. The share price sank 59%.
Nevertheless, Ben, like many other analysts, economists and journalists has picked himself up, dusted himself off and composed himself for the latest question: Where will the FTSE 100 finish in 2016?
Given that Citi, one the world's largest investment banks got last year's prediction wrong by a margin of 1,400 points it's unsurprising that they weren't willing to comment on their forecast for this year.
Despite the reticence from the big banks there were plenty of market commentators willing to stake their reputation on what we should expect over the next 12 months.
Here we take a look at a handful of the issues on the business agenda in 2016.
:: Where will the FTSE finish 2016?
Market commentators are a lot less bullish than they were this time last year, with a Brexit referendum on the horizon and fallout from the interest rate rise in the US hard to gauge 2016 looks set to be a very interesting year indeed.
Panmure Gordon's David Buik predicts the index will close the year at just 6000, whilst Alastair McCaig at IG is slightly more optimistic, pencilling in a modest 5.5% rise to 6,650.
:: What are the shares to watch?
The two sectors to keep your eye on in 2016 are housebuilders and miners.
They had mixed fortunes in 2015 with miners comprising the top three fallers of the FTSE 100, with Anglo American shedding close to 75% of its value and Glencore faring not much better.
Meanwhile the housebuilders enjoyed far better fortunes, Taylor Wimpey climbed nearly 55% while Berkeley was hot on its tail - rising by just shy of 50%.
Commenting on the likely fate of the beleaguered miners, IG's Alastair McCaig said "compared with a year ago, mining shares look much more attractive but cheap things tend to get cheaper".
Although he foresees consolidation saying: "We are also likely to see selective mergers in the sector."
The government’s buy-to-let tax relief reforms together with the introduction of the starter homes scheme will do little to remedy the supply side problem but instead of benefiting the housebuilders Mr McCaig argues that we could see a correction.
"The housebuilding sector is looking overvalued and higher price-to-book values suggest the good times are over but we may see share prices rise further in 2016 although it’s a sector where stock picking is important.
"Premium housebuilders such as Barratt and Berkeley Group look less attractive than Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon."
:: Will my house go up in value?
According to Savills house prices are likely to rise by 5% in 2016, marginally higher than the 4.5% growth recorded by the Nationwide Index in 2015.
According to Savills, UK house prices will rise 17% by the end of 2020, with slower growth of 15.3% in London “where affordability is already stretched” according to Savills’ Lucian Cook.
FTSE 100 2016 FINISH PREDICTION
Mr Buik is slightly more bullish for real estate, pencilling in a 6% rise for 2016, but he did caveat this by saying the interest rate trajectory could upset things.
:: So when will interest rates rise?
Now that the Federal Reserve in the US has pulled the trigger all eyes will be on Mark Carney and the Bank of England.
The futures markets aren’t pricing in a rise until the end of 2016, with many economists not expecting the Bank to act before the EU referendum which is expected in June or September.
With over half of UK mortgages having a tracking or variable element any tweaks to UK rates are likely to have a far greater impact than they do across the pond where mortgage rates are often fixed for the entire length of the loan.
:: Will the UK leave the EU?
Betting exchange Betfair has seen nearly a quarter of a million pounds traded on its EU Membership Referendum market with the implied probability of an exit calculated at around 36%.
Although the ramifications of an exit are unknown many experts believe the fall-out risk is overplayed and that London and the UK will retain its position as a key trading partner with the EU irrespective of its membership position.
CMC’s chief market analyst, Michael Hewson, says “It is quite simply alarmist nonsense to state that calamity will befall a potential vote for Brexit, as it is in no-ones interest for a harmful schism to occur between the UK and Europe and the trading relationships between the two blocs.
"Trade partnerships will go on as before, as will currently existing commercial agreements."
Given Europe's problems right now and in the future it would be remarkably short-sighted of them if they chose to be difficult with one of their largest trading partners and export markets in the event of a "No" vote.
IG’s senior market analyst, Chris Beauchamp, was slightly more cautious: "The longer the debate (Brexit) goes on the more volatile markets are likely to become.
"The Conservatives pledge a referendum before the end of 2017, but the business community want one much sooner to avoid uncertainty hanging over the economy."
:: Where’s oil heading?
Oil had a troubled 2015 slipping 35%, having halved the previous year.
Panmure's Colin Smith does not expect oil prices to rally significantly until the final quarter of 2016 when $55 a barrel is possible.
Meanwhile IG predict a continuation to the wider commodity crisis: "There is no end in sight to the commodity slump and returns on invested capital continue to fall, as capital costs rise."
However, given the VAT and duty imposed on petrol prices at the pump we are unlikely to see forecourt prices fall much lower. Even if Brent crude prices fall to zero - petrol would still be 75p a litre.
:: What will happen to sterling?
American holidays are likely to get a lot more expensive. Analysts at Deutsche bank believe the pound could fall as low as $1.27 in 2016 and $1.15 in 2017, that would represent a 40% reduction to  the value of the pound.
With the Fed expected to raise rates four times in 2016, and the associated uncertainty of the UK's future in the EU, Deutsche's prediction could prove to be a smart one.
That said, Credit Agricole's foreign-exchange strategist, Manuel Oliveri, says that the pound has the greatest upside potential of all the major global currencies.
"Once the referendum uncertainty dissipates, the capital-flow situation will be positive again."
The November presidential election in the US could also dampen dollar appetite, especially if Donald Trump's implied chance of success increases from its current level of 10%.

Migrant crisis: Sweden border checks come into force

All travellers wanting to cross the Oresund bridge by train or bus, or use ferry services, will be refused entry without the necessary documents. 
Rail commuters heading to Sweden will now have to change trains at Copenhagen Airport and go through ID checkpoints.
Sweden received more than 150,000 asylum applications in 2015.
Thousands of commuters daily cross the Oresund bridge, which connects the Swedish cities of Malmo and Lund with the Danish capital, Copenhagen. 
Direct journeys from Copenhagen's main railway station to Sweden will no longer be available and the changes are expected to add around 30 minutes to the current 40-minute commute.
Rail operators have reduced the number of trips to Sweden and have warned that there might be significant delays.
Danish Transport Minister Hans Christian Schmidt said the introduction of checks was sad and "extremely annoying". He suggested the Swedish government should foot the bill for the checks, which Danish rail company DSB has estimated at 1m Danish krone (£100,000; €134,000) per day.
Under the new Swedish law brought in late last year, transport companies will be fined 50,000 Swedish krona (£4,000; €5,400) if travellers to Sweden do not have a valid photo ID.
The Swedish government secured a temporary exemption from the European Union's open-border Schengen agreement, in order to impose the border controls.
Last month Sweden's state-owned train operator SJ announced it would stop services to and from Denmark because it could not carry out identity checks demanded by the new law.
To comply with the regulations, fencing has been erected around one of the platforms at the railway station at Copenhagen's Kastrup Airport.
Police have also set up fencing at Hyllie, the first station on the Swedish side of the bridge, amid reports of plans for further ID checks there.
Sweden's SJ train company said it would not have time to check people travelling between Copenhagen and Malmo over the Oresund bridge.
And Ronny Fredriksson of security firm Securitas Sweden told Svenska Dagbladet his company had so far refused requests from travel companies to take on the task because "this is about foreign identification cards that we know nothing about."
Infrastructure minister Anna Johansson told Swedish media that the new rules would be changed if there was a dramatic fall in the number of asylum seekers.
One million migrants arrived in Europeby land or sea in 2015, the International Organisation for Migration says.
Along with Germany, Sweden is one of the main destinations for migrants and takes the most per capita of its population.
In 2013 the then government announced it would offer permanent residence to all Syrians but the high number of arrivals last year prompted a rethink.
In contrast, Denmark expects to receive about 20,000 asylum seekers this year.


Mark Zuckerberg to build AI to help at home and work

In a post on the social media site, he said his personal challenge this year would be to build a "simple AI" similar to the butler Jarvis from the film Iron Man.
Mr Zuckerberg plans to share his progress over the course of the year.
Last month, he made headlines for plans to give away 99% of his Facebook stake.
He had to defend his philanthropic venture - launched to celebrate the birth of his daughter- after critics argued that it could provide a way for the founder to avoid paying tax on the sale of his shares.

'Control everything'

On Monday, Mr Zuckerberg said he would start to build the AI with technology that is already out there and teach it to understand his voice to control everything in his home from music and lights to temperature.
"This should be a fun intellectual challenge to code this for myself," Mr Zuckerberg said.
"I'll teach it to let friends in by looking at their faces when they ring the doorbell," he said. "I'll teach it to let me know if anything is going on in Max's (his daughter's) room that I need to check on when I'm not with her."
For Facebook, he added that the system would help him visualise data in virtual reality and help him build better services, as well as lead his company.
His announcement comes as Facebook is in the midst of AI initiatives such as building an assistant through its Messenger app for users.
The tech billionaire said a part of the motivation behind this year's challenge was the reward of building things yourself.
His previous personal challenges have included learning Mandarin, reading two books a month and meeting a new person every day, he said.

Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as tensions escalate

reign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced in a press conference in Riyadh on Sunday that his country will sever all diplomatic ties with Iran. He said Iranian diplomatic personnel had 48 hours to leave his country, and that all Saudi diplomatic personnel in Iran had been recalled home.
The announcement comes as tensions rise between the two countries following Saudi Arabia's execution of prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, which prompted Iranian protesters early Sunday to storm the Saudi embassy in Tehran. 
The news also illustrates Saudi Arabia's new aggressiveness under King Salman. During his reign, the country has led a coalition fighting Shia rebels in Yemen and staunchly opposed regional Shia power Iran, even as Tehran struck a nuclear deal with world powers.
Friction between the two countries rose sharply on Saturday after Saudi Arabia announced the execution of al-Nimr along with 46 other prisoners, including three other Shia dissidents and dozens of Sunni Al-Qaeda fighters. It was the largest mass execution carried out by the kingdom in three and a half decades.
Al-Nimr was a central figure in protests by Saudi Arabia's Shia minority until his arrest in 2012, and his execution drew condemnation from Shias across the Middle East.
Prior to the Saudi announcement on cutting diplomatic ties, Iran's top leader had warned Saudi Arabia of "divine revenge" over the cleric's execution. Riyadh meanwhile accused Tehran of supporting "terrorism." 
The Iranian Foreign Ministry had summoned the Saudi envoy in Tehran to protest, while the Saudi Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's envoy to the kingdom to protest that country's criticism of the execution, saying it represented "blatant interference" in its internal affairs.
By early Sunday morning in Tehran, a crowd had gathered outside the Saudi Embassy and chanted anti-Saudi slogans. Some protesters threw stones and Molotov cocktails at the embassy, setting off a fire in part of the building, said the country's top police official, Gen. Hossein Sajedinia, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
He later said police had removed the protesters from the building and arrested some of them, adding that the situation had been "defused."
A Tehran prosecutor said 40 people were arrested on suspicion of taking part in the embassy attack and investigators were pursuing other suspects, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, while condemning Saudi Arabia's execution of al-Nimr, also branded those who attacked the Saudi Embassy as "extremists."
"It is unjustifiable," he said in a statement.
Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said that by condemning the execution, Iran had "revealed its true face represented in support for terrorism."
The statement, carried by the official Saudi Press Agency, accused Tehran of "blind sectarianism" and said that "by its defense of terrorist acts" Iran is a "partner in their crimes in the entire region."
Al-Nimr was convicted of “terrorism” charges but denied ever advocating violence.
Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran are locked in a bitter rivalry, and support opposite sides in the wars in Syria and Yemen. Iran accuses Saudi Arabia of supporting "terrorism" in part because it backs Syrian rebel groups, while Riyadh points to Iran's support for the Lebanese Hezbollah and other Shia fighters in the region.
The cleric's execution could also complicate Saudi Arabia's relationship with the Shia-led government in Iraq. The Saudi Embassy in Baghdad is preparing to formally reopen for the first time in nearly 25 years. Already on Saturday there were public calls for Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to shut the embassy down again.
Al-Nimr's supporters protested in his hometown of al-Qatif in eastern Saudi Arabia, in neighboring Bahrain where police fired tear gas and birdshot, in Lebanon and as far away as northern India.
The last time Saudi Arabia carried out a mass execution on this scale was in 1980, when the kingdom executed 63 people convicted over the 1979 seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Islam's holiest city. Extremists held the mosque, home to the cube-shaped Kaaba toward which Muslims around the world pray, for two weeks as they demanded the royal family abdicate the throne.
Also Sunday, the BBC reported that one of the 47 executed in Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Dhubaiti, was convicted over a 2004 attack on its journalists in Riyadh. That attack by a gang outside of the home of a suspected Al-Qaeda fighter killed 36-year-old Irish cameraman Simon Cumbers. British reporter Frank Gardner, now the BBC's security correspondent, was seriously wounded in the attack and paralyzed, but survived.

Nine Dead As Quake Rocks Eastern India

People look at damaged residential houses after an earthquake in Imphal.
The quake struck 29km (18 miles) west of the northeastern city of Imphal at 4.35am (11.05pm UK time), according to the US Geological Survey.
Six people have died in the city, which is the capital of Manipur state, as walls, staircases and roofs in some buildings collapsed. Another 100 have been injured, 33 seriously.
India earthquake
The rescue operation is being hampered by severed power supplies and telecommunication links across the city, which is home to 270,000 people.
"It was like being tossed around in a frying pan," said Joy Thanglian, a 33-year-old employee of state energy firm Bharat Petroleum. "Then we ran outside."
Imphal resident Deepak Shijagurumayum added: "Almost everyone was asleep when it struck and were thrown out of their beds.
"People were crying and praying in the streets and in open spaces. Hundreds remained outdoors for several hours fearing aftershocks."
India earthquake
There were similar scenes in the northeast Indian city of Guwahati.
The quake was felt as far away as Yangon, the capital of Myanmar, 1,176km (730 miles) to the south.
Three people are reported to have died from heart attacks in Bangladesh, where another 90 people are said to be injured.
Tremors were also felt in Nepal. 
India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, wrote on Twitter that he is in touch with authorities in the affected area - though some have criticised the government's response.
"We haven't seen any help from the government side," said disaster volunteer worker Kanarjit Kangujam. "The government has not given us any information."
He added that the quake was the biggest that has been felt in Imphal.
The quake was 57km (35 miles) deep, the US Geological Survey said.