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Monday, January 4, 2016

Britain Must Not Overreact To IS Threat

be dubbed Jihadi George, or Ringo, he will get his moments of infamy - and there isn't much that can be done to ignore him.
A red cross is drawn in an Islamic State banner after the militants flee
The Foreign Office would have us believe that the latest atrocious video issued by the apocalyptic cult that calls itself "Islamic State" represents an act of desperation after its battlefield losses in places like Ramadi, Iraq.
The war in Syria and Iraq has ebbed and flowed. Lately it has been flowing against "Islamic State" - the cult has lost about 20% of the territory it controlled a year ago to Kurds and coalition air strikes.
The latest video, in which five people accused of spying for Britain are shot in the back of the head by five killers including the leader of the gang with the English accent, is one in a series of similar atrocities that have been broadcast over the last few months.
They include French-speaking murderers when the accused have been francophone and Russian speakers when the victims have been alleged to be spies of the Kremlin.
Dozens of similar and even more grotesque videos have shown the murder of alleged Aran and Kurd spies who have been killed by drowning, burning, rocket attack and shot dead by children on murderous treasure hunts through the ruins of ancient cities.
In every case there is a threat against the government of the country concerned, a threat to launch terror and a threat to invade.
The threats of terror are real. We have seen the use of terror in Paris, in Tunisia, in the Sinai and elsewhere.
But none of these attacks amounts to the sort of strategic event that "Islamic State" seeks to achieve.
To have meaning outside of its borders it needs to make good on its near term bravado - and that is where it is weakest. It does not have the power of a nation state - not even the potential of North Korea.
It cannot effect the British economy or the British way of life unless the British choose to allow it to do so by overreacting.
There are secret agencies that will now redouble their efforts to track down the latest poster boy for British extremism.
The smart thing for the rest is to keep calm, and carry on.

'Channel Tunnel Walker' Given Asylum In UK


Abdul Haroun, 40, was arrested at the English end of the tunnel on 4 August, having apparently walked the 31 miles (50km) from the French side.
He was said to have been the first person known to have reached the UK on foot through the tunnel, which would have involved a 12-hour journey in the dark, dodging trains whizzing past at speeds of up to 160kph.
He was charged in the UK with causing an obstruction to an engine or carriage using the railway, under the little-known Malicious Damage Act of 1861.
He was held in custody and told to face trial this month.
In a short hearing at Canterbury Crown Court, where Haroun appeared on video link and spoke only to confirm his name, it was revealed he had been granted asylum on Christmas Eve.
Prosecutor Philip Bennetts asked the court for time to consider how this would affect the charge against him.
The case was adjourned until 18 January and Haroun was bailed to an address supplied by a refugee rights group.
Haroun's background has not been made public but the court heard earlier that his native tongue is Zaghawa, suggesting he may be from Darfur, a part of Sudan that has seen more than a decade of war between government forces and rebels.
His tunnel trek came as thousands of migrants, many from countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Eritrea, camped in squalid conditions near the French city of Calais, hoping to find their way to Britain.

Uber Is About to Make Traveling Much Easier

It's called 'Uber Travel'

Uber isn’t only about booking cars. It looks like it’s thinking of becoming a travel agent.
On December 24, Uber secured a new patent that could be used to plan trips.
Called “Uber Travel” in the images, it looks like a normal flight search like you would see on Expedia, but it adds Uber cars into the mix.
A traveler could input their start location, date, and time, alongside a destination, and Uber would recommend an itinerary for them. The “magic” as Uber calls it in the diagram is being able to also incorporate plans for transportation.
Uber Drivers Present Petition To Transport For London
Carl Court—Getty ImagesAn Uber driver poses for a photograph in an Uber t-shirt and holding a smart phone displaying the Uber app after delivering petitions to the Transport for London headquarters on December 22, 2015 in London, England.
It’s a deviation from how conventional travel is typically booked segment by segment now. You start with booking your flight, then choose a hotel, then eventually a rental car or some other transit.
Uber’s idea, according to the patent, is to take the trip information and show a recommended flight, hotel, and the cost of an Uber to get you from point A to point B all-in-one.
In the whole process, Uber is acting as the facilitator, much like a Kayak.com, rather than the provider. These deals will probably be orchestrated by a team overseen by the patent’s author, Howard Jaffe, who is the head of Uber’s global procurement and supply chain.
In the patent, Uber states that it will tap into the network of airlines, looking at things like the planes’ on-time performance and an individual’s preference for aisle and window seats. It will also work with traditional hotels and “shared-economy systems” that allow people to rent out their apartments, likely Airbnb.
US PTO
The patent also covers a way to make travel so much easier.
Once Uber knows your scheduled flight, the patented system is designed to know when a flight actually lands at the airport so it can start calculating when you should call an Uber, taking into account customs and baggage times.
“The information may include a location at the airport where the user can be picked up in connection with receiving the on-demand transportation service, and a timing indicator to indicate when the user should make a request to receive the on-demand transportation service based on a real-time determination of a number of available service providers in a vicinity of the airport,” the patent states.
Essentially, Uber is taking the guesswork out of when to call for a ride when a traveler lands by pre-emptively notifying them when they should.
It’s an interesting move for a company that hasn’t been welcomed by airports with open arms. Many airports still forbid Uber for operating on their property, often levying heavy fines on the drivers themselves who respond to pick-up requests. Uber has been working hard to change this, and in early December, Uber finally was granted permission to operate at Las Vegas’ McCarran International Airport.
Uber declined to comment.

How Corbyn's 'Revenge Reshuffle' Might Look

11:06, UK, Monday 04 January 2016
Syria conflict

Sophy Ridge

Senior Political Correspondent

Sophy Ridge
Jeremy Corbyn is preparing to change his top team in a reshuffle that could turn Labour into a "religious cult", according to a shadow minister.
Shadow culture secretary Michael Dugher warned that widespread sackings would leave a "politburo of seven" running the party.
Sources close to the Labour leader say Mr Corbyn is keen to make sure his shadow cabinet is speaking with a unanimous voice and stop divisions in his top team.
A shadow cabinet meeting is pencilled in for Tuesday lunchtime, so Mr Corbyn is likely to have to cancel it or complete his reshuffle by that deadline.
So who is in the frame for a promotion, and who could be about to beat a hasty retreat to the backbenches?
:: GOING UP?
:: Emily Thornberry
Emily Thornberry
Mrs Thornberry, one of Mr Corbyn's fellow Islington MPs, could be in for a big post.
The Labour leader is said to be keen to offer one of the big three positions (foreign, home or chancellor) to a woman, and the foreign affairs brief is the most likely to be up for grabs.
Mrs Thornberry has frontbench experience as shadow attorney general before Ed Miliband sacked her for posting a picture on Twitter of a white van outside a house draped in the St George's flag, which some said was patronising.
:: Clive Lewis
Clive Lewis
Mr Lewis, MP for Norwich South, is a keen Corbynite who could get his first taste for a shadow cabinet job after winning a seat in the 2015 election.
He served as a Territorial Army officer in Afghanistan so is a potential candidate for shadow defence secretary, and his appointment would be seen as a significant shift to the left.
:: Diane Abbott
Shadow cabinet reshuffle
Veteran MP Ms Abbott has been a frequent cheerleader for Mr Corbyn on the airwaves and will be hoping that her loyalty will be rewarded with a promotion.
Currently shadow international development secretary, a higher profile job would help Mr Corbyn achieve his aim of having more women in top shadow cabinet positions.
GOING DOWN?
:: Hilary Benn
Shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn MP
Mr Benn's very public disagreement with Mr Corbyn over airstrikes in Syria put him in the firing line, with some in Team Corbyn believing that it's untenable to have a shadow foreign secretary at odds with the leader over issues of war.
However, supporters claim that sacking Mr Benn could spark a mutiny among other Labour MPs. Instead he could be in for a sideways move or be left alone all together.
:: Maria Eagle
Maria Eagle
The shadow defence secretary fundamentally disagrees with Mr Corbyn's position on Syria and Trident, making her vulnerable in any reshuffle.
However, some in Camp Corbyn fear that if Maria Eagle is sacked then her twin sister Angela Eagle could also walk, so she may be moved to another shadow cabinet role.
:: Michael Dugher
Labour party annual conference 2015
Mr Dugher has stuck his head above the parapet (always dangerous) to speak out against a "revenge reshuffle". He voted in favour of air strikes in Syria and is from the centrist wing of the Labour Party, so could be vulnerable.
STAYING SAFE?
:: John McDonnell
Labour Party Conference
The shadow chancellor is Mr Corbyn's closest political ally and friend so he’s unlikely to be demoted.
:: Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham
Friends of the Labour leader say that Jeremy Corbyn is happy with Mr Burnham's performance so he’s not in the firing line.
However, a "job swap" has been suggested where Mr Burnham would become shadow foreign secretary and Mr Benn take over the home affairs brief.
Whether that would be acceptable to Mr Corbyn – who is keen to see a woman in one of the top posts – remains to be seen.
:: Dame Rosie Winterton
Shadow cabinet team named
The Chief Whip was initially believed to be vulnerable after the "free vote" on air strikes in Syria.
However, the Westminster rumour mill now suggests that she could be safe after numerous Labour MPs rowed in to support her in her job.

Bahrain cuts diplomatic ties with Iran

Bahrain says it is severing its diplomatic ties with Iran and has called upon Iranian diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours.
Isa al-Hamadi, the Bahraini minister of media affairs, made the announcement on Monday amid heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, after Saturday's attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran during protests against executions in the kingdom.
Bahrain frequently accuses Iran of being behind protests among its Shia population.
Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran on Sunday after Iranian protesters attacked its embassy in Tehran, following the kingdom's decision to execute Shia religious figure Nimr al-Nimr along with 46 other convicts on terrorism charges.
Iran's foreign ministry said that Saudi Arabia was using the attack on its embassy in Tehran as a pretext to fuel tensions - after being given a 48-hour deadline to remove its diplomatic mission from Riyadh.
"Iran ... is committed to provide diplomatic security based on international conventions. But Saudi Arabia, which thrives on tensions, has used this incident as an excuse to fuel the tensions," Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari said in televised remarks on Monday.
But Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, accused Iranian authorities of being complicit in the attack, saying that documents and computers were taken from the embassy building.
He said that the Saudi diplomatic representative had sought help from the Iranian foreign ministry when the building was stormed, but the requests were ignored three times.
The secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani, also condemned the attacks against the Saudi embassy, saying that Iranian authorities bear full responsibility for the failing to protect the diplomatic mission.
The Saudi foreign ministry announced on Sunday that its diplomatic staff had been evacuated from Tehran and were on their way back to the kingdom.
The war of words between Saudi Arabia and Iran started on Saturday, after the kingdom's announcement that Nimr was among 47 people executed on terrorism charges.
Many of the men executed had been linked to attacks in Saudi Arabia between 2003 and 2006, blamed on al-Qaeda.
Four of those executed were said to be Shia.
Nimr was accused of inciting violence and leading anti-government protests in the country's east in 2011. He was convicted of sedition, disobedience and bearing arms.
He did not deny the political charges against him, but said he never carried weapons or called for violence.
Nimr spent more than a decade studying theology in predominantly Shia Iran.
Surprise move
Speaking to Al Jazeera from Beirut, Joseph Kechichian, a Middle East analyst, said that the Saudi decision to suspend diplomatic ties was "quite a surprise".
"This is an escalation that will create havoc in the region," he said.
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that the Saudi decision was likely to have repercussions for the region, particularly concerning the Syrian negotiations.
"Western powers must increase efforts to safeguard this process and encourage the Saudis and Iran to continue their participation [in the Syria peace talks]," she told Al Jazeera from London.
"These events further set back the urgently needed rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, and spell further trouble for an already fragile region."
The diplomatic spat follows executions in Saudi Arabia of 47 people accused of inciting violence and carrying out attacks [EPA]

Business: What's In Store For 2016?


Foreseeing the fortunes of the FTSE 100 isn’t easy, just ask the Telegraph's Ben Martin who tipped oil minnow Tullow to be the golden boy of 2015.
The gold rusted. The share price sank 59%.
Nevertheless, Ben, like many other analysts, economists and journalists has picked himself up, dusted himself off and composed himself for the latest question: Where will the FTSE 100 finish in 2016?
Given that Citi, one the world's largest investment banks got last year's prediction wrong by a margin of 1,400 points it's unsurprising that they weren't willing to comment on their forecast for this year.
Despite the reticence from the big banks there were plenty of market commentators willing to stake their reputation on what we should expect over the next 12 months.
Here we take a look at a handful of the issues on the business agenda in 2016.
:: Where will the FTSE finish 2016?
Market commentators are a lot less bullish than they were this time last year, with a Brexit referendum on the horizon and fallout from the interest rate rise in the US hard to gauge 2016 looks set to be a very interesting year indeed.
Panmure Gordon's David Buik predicts the index will close the year at just 6000, whilst Alastair McCaig at IG is slightly more optimistic, pencilling in a modest 5.5% rise to 6,650.
:: What are the shares to watch?
The two sectors to keep your eye on in 2016 are housebuilders and miners.
They had mixed fortunes in 2015 with miners comprising the top three fallers of the FTSE 100, with Anglo American shedding close to 75% of its value and Glencore faring not much better.
Meanwhile the housebuilders enjoyed far better fortunes, Taylor Wimpey climbed nearly 55% while Berkeley was hot on its tail - rising by just shy of 50%.
Commenting on the likely fate of the beleaguered miners, IG's Alastair McCaig said "compared with a year ago, mining shares look much more attractive but cheap things tend to get cheaper".
Although he foresees consolidation saying: "We are also likely to see selective mergers in the sector."
The government’s buy-to-let tax relief reforms together with the introduction of the starter homes scheme will do little to remedy the supply side problem but instead of benefiting the housebuilders Mr McCaig argues that we could see a correction.
"The housebuilding sector is looking overvalued and higher price-to-book values suggest the good times are over but we may see share prices rise further in 2016 although it’s a sector where stock picking is important.
"Premium housebuilders such as Barratt and Berkeley Group look less attractive than Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon."
:: Will my house go up in value?
According to Savills house prices are likely to rise by 5% in 2016, marginally higher than the 4.5% growth recorded by the Nationwide Index in 2015.
According to Savills, UK house prices will rise 17% by the end of 2020, with slower growth of 15.3% in London “where affordability is already stretched” according to Savills’ Lucian Cook.
FTSE 100 2016 FINISH PREDICTION
Mr Buik is slightly more bullish for real estate, pencilling in a 6% rise for 2016, but he did caveat this by saying the interest rate trajectory could upset things.
:: So when will interest rates rise?
Now that the Federal Reserve in the US has pulled the trigger all eyes will be on Mark Carney and the Bank of England.
The futures markets aren’t pricing in a rise until the end of 2016, with many economists not expecting the Bank to act before the EU referendum which is expected in June or September.
With over half of UK mortgages having a tracking or variable element any tweaks to UK rates are likely to have a far greater impact than they do across the pond where mortgage rates are often fixed for the entire length of the loan.
:: Will the UK leave the EU?
Betting exchange Betfair has seen nearly a quarter of a million pounds traded on its EU Membership Referendum market with the implied probability of an exit calculated at around 36%.
Although the ramifications of an exit are unknown many experts believe the fall-out risk is overplayed and that London and the UK will retain its position as a key trading partner with the EU irrespective of its membership position.
CMC’s chief market analyst, Michael Hewson, says “It is quite simply alarmist nonsense to state that calamity will befall a potential vote for Brexit, as it is in no-ones interest for a harmful schism to occur between the UK and Europe and the trading relationships between the two blocs.
"Trade partnerships will go on as before, as will currently existing commercial agreements."
Given Europe's problems right now and in the future it would be remarkably short-sighted of them if they chose to be difficult with one of their largest trading partners and export markets in the event of a "No" vote.
IG’s senior market analyst, Chris Beauchamp, was slightly more cautious: "The longer the debate (Brexit) goes on the more volatile markets are likely to become.
"The Conservatives pledge a referendum before the end of 2017, but the business community want one much sooner to avoid uncertainty hanging over the economy."
:: Where’s oil heading?
Oil had a troubled 2015 slipping 35%, having halved the previous year.
Panmure's Colin Smith does not expect oil prices to rally significantly until the final quarter of 2016 when $55 a barrel is possible.
Meanwhile IG predict a continuation to the wider commodity crisis: "There is no end in sight to the commodity slump and returns on invested capital continue to fall, as capital costs rise."
However, given the VAT and duty imposed on petrol prices at the pump we are unlikely to see forecourt prices fall much lower. Even if Brent crude prices fall to zero - petrol would still be 75p a litre.
:: What will happen to sterling?
American holidays are likely to get a lot more expensive. Analysts at Deutsche bank believe the pound could fall as low as $1.27 in 2016 and $1.15 in 2017, that would represent a 40% reduction to  the value of the pound.
With the Fed expected to raise rates four times in 2016, and the associated uncertainty of the UK's future in the EU, Deutsche's prediction could prove to be a smart one.
That said, Credit Agricole's foreign-exchange strategist, Manuel Oliveri, says that the pound has the greatest upside potential of all the major global currencies.
"Once the referendum uncertainty dissipates, the capital-flow situation will be positive again."
The November presidential election in the US could also dampen dollar appetite, especially if Donald Trump's implied chance of success increases from its current level of 10%.

Migrant crisis: Sweden border checks come into force

All travellers wanting to cross the Oresund bridge by train or bus, or use ferry services, will be refused entry without the necessary documents. 
Rail commuters heading to Sweden will now have to change trains at Copenhagen Airport and go through ID checkpoints.
Sweden received more than 150,000 asylum applications in 2015.
Thousands of commuters daily cross the Oresund bridge, which connects the Swedish cities of Malmo and Lund with the Danish capital, Copenhagen. 
Direct journeys from Copenhagen's main railway station to Sweden will no longer be available and the changes are expected to add around 30 minutes to the current 40-minute commute.
Rail operators have reduced the number of trips to Sweden and have warned that there might be significant delays.
Danish Transport Minister Hans Christian Schmidt said the introduction of checks was sad and "extremely annoying". He suggested the Swedish government should foot the bill for the checks, which Danish rail company DSB has estimated at 1m Danish krone (£100,000; €134,000) per day.
Under the new Swedish law brought in late last year, transport companies will be fined 50,000 Swedish krona (£4,000; €5,400) if travellers to Sweden do not have a valid photo ID.
The Swedish government secured a temporary exemption from the European Union's open-border Schengen agreement, in order to impose the border controls.
Last month Sweden's state-owned train operator SJ announced it would stop services to and from Denmark because it could not carry out identity checks demanded by the new law.
To comply with the regulations, fencing has been erected around one of the platforms at the railway station at Copenhagen's Kastrup Airport.
Police have also set up fencing at Hyllie, the first station on the Swedish side of the bridge, amid reports of plans for further ID checks there.
Sweden's SJ train company said it would not have time to check people travelling between Copenhagen and Malmo over the Oresund bridge.
And Ronny Fredriksson of security firm Securitas Sweden told Svenska Dagbladet his company had so far refused requests from travel companies to take on the task because "this is about foreign identification cards that we know nothing about."
Infrastructure minister Anna Johansson told Swedish media that the new rules would be changed if there was a dramatic fall in the number of asylum seekers.
One million migrants arrived in Europeby land or sea in 2015, the International Organisation for Migration says.
Along with Germany, Sweden is one of the main destinations for migrants and takes the most per capita of its population.
In 2013 the then government announced it would offer permanent residence to all Syrians but the high number of arrivals last year prompted a rethink.
In contrast, Denmark expects to receive about 20,000 asylum seekers this year.