Powered By Blogger

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Why the West won't go to war over Aleppo

"Worse than a slaughterhouse" were the words the outgoing UN Chief, Ban Ki Moon, used to describe the killing in eastern Aleppo.
And it is easy to see why he used such a graphic analogy.
The pictures streaming out of the city have been horrific.
Little boys bloodied and caked in dust; their eyes dead with trauma. Babies dug out from the rubble. Their limp bodies held aloft accusingly by rescue workers.
But, none of these appalling attacks on civilians have changed the calculations in the West . Intervention, it seems for the moment at least, is not the answer.
History tells us there are generally four guiding principles by which leaders are moved to act.
1. Public pressure means they have the democratic mandate needed to do something.
This something usually involves deploying military force. But, although people in the West are appalled by what is happening, there is not a groundswell of support for sending troops or military assets into Syria.
2. The leader(s) own political convictions.
In the current zeitgeist, against the backdrop of Afghanistan, Iraq and to a lesser degree Libya, intervention has lost much of its allure.
And this leads onto point number three. 
3. Will an intervention make a difference and will it ease the suffering of Syrian civilians?
This is debatable. But broadly the argument can be summed up as 'more bombs to stop the bombs against more bombs are just going to make things worse'. We could describe this as oil on the fire vs water on the fire.
4. It is in the country's strategic interest to act?
It might be a case of protecting an ally, or military foothold in a region, or even denying that advantage to another power. Syria does not fall into this category as it has been in Russia's sphere of influence since the Cold War.
It is easy, when faced with such violence, to see today's leaders as pusillanimous. But it is hard to think that western statesmen of the past, when taking into consideration the above, would have acted much differently.
The complexity of the battlefield in Syria and the presence of Russia in the fight make intervention a risky option.
The obvious danger is that the conflict turns into a big power confrontation, which clearly carries the possibility of escalation well beyond Syria's borders.
It is also hard to identify what the West's objectives are in Syria. As a consequence of that, US and European policy is confused at best.
Is the objective simply to stop the killing and save lives?
That seems to be one of the aims but, evidentially, it is not the core objective. If it were, the West would work with Russia (and by default Assad) and target the extremist groups, some of whom now make up the opposition.
They would be targeted not because they are doing the most killing (they are not - Assad is) but because it would be the quickest way to bring a close to the fighting.
President Assad would then be able to exert control over the country again and the bombing would stop.
In this scenario, stability would return.
So too would torture and the police state, but neither of those things seemed to give the West sleepless nights prior to the so called 'Arab Spring'.
From a purely utilitarian perspective (that which saves the most lives) this may well be the best course of action. But there is also much that is morally unpalatable about it. This is one of the reasons, as the latest ceasefire showed, it was doomed to fail.


Argentina demands UK halts military exercise in Falklands

Argentina has lodged a formal letter of complaint against British plans to hold military exercises in the disputed Falkland Islands.
The country's foreign ministry said in a statement that it had sent the note to the British ambassador demanding the UK calls off the "illegitimate" exercises, which are scheduled from 19-28 October and include the launching of Rapier missiles.
But a spokeswoman for the British embassy in Buenos Aires called it a "routine exercise" that takes places about twice a year.
Argentina has for decades claimed sovereignty over the British-run islands it calls the Malvinas and the dispute led to a brief war in 1982.
The conflict killed 649 Argentinian soldiers, 255 British soldiers and three islanders.
The overwhelming majority of the islands' 3,000 inhabitants say they want the islands to remain a UK overseas territory.
In a 2013 referendum, residents voted overwhelmingly to remain part of Britain.
Pro-business President Mauricio Macri has tried to improve relations since taking over in December after diplomatic tensions mounted under his predecessor Cristina Fernandez.
Last month, the two sides held talks in London, culminating in a series of deals covering oil, fishing, navigation and trade in and around the islands.

Migrants 'smuggled across EU in fuel tanks'

At least 300 migrants were smuggled across the EU in special adapted vehicle fuel tanks, it has been alleged.
Five Slovaks are facing charges of people smuggling after being arrested in a series of house raids by Slovak police on Tuesday morning.
They have been accused of arranging for the migrants to be shipped from Hungary to western Europe, mostly to Germany and Italy.
They face up to 10 years in prison if convicted.
Police said migrants from Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan were stowed away in the specially customised tanks in cars from Slovak and Czech rental companies.
Those who were smuggled were charged between €500 and €1,000 (£450-£900).
The stowaways are believed to have been intercepted on the Hungarian border.
Hungarian police footage showed a male migrant climbing out of a narrow fuel tank under a vehicle.
Still photos revealed the cramped tubular space that migrants had to squeeze into.
It's unclear how many people were packed into the tank at any one time.
Slovakia has not been a principal route for those attempting to reach western Europe from the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Donald Trump facing new sex claims from two women

A woman who was a contestant on the US version of The Apprentice has accused Donald Trump of inappropriate sexual conduct.
The allegation comes on the same day another woman claimed the Republican White House candidate groped her in a Manhattan nightspot.
Mr Trump has again insisted all the allegations against him are fabricated.
"I don't know who these people are. I look on television, I think it's a disgusting thing and it's being pushed, they have no witnesses, there's nobody around," he said at a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina.
"Some are doing it for probably a little fame, they get some free fame. It's a total set-up."
The lawyer acting for the Apprentice contestant said Mr Trump kissed Summer Zervos on the lips when she arrived at his office in New York in 2007.
She also claimed his hands were all over her.
Ms Zervos, 41, has said Mr Trump made inappropriate sexual advances towards her at a hotel in Los Angeles a few weeks later.
On that occasion she said he started kissing her "open-mouthed" and pulled her towards him.
"He then grabbed my shoulder and began kissing again very aggressively, and placed his hand on my breast," she said.
"He put me into an embrace and I tried to pull him away. I pushed his chest to put some space between us and said 'Come on, man, get real'."
Mr Trump has denied Ms Zervos' account of their meetings and has hit out at the media over its coverage of the accusations levelled against him.
He said in a statement: "I vaguely remember Ms Zervos as one of the many contestants on The Apprentice over the years.
"To be clear, I never met her at a hotel or greeted her inappropriately a decade ago. That is not who I am as a person, and it is not how I've conducted my life.
"Beyond that, the media is now creating a theatre of absurdity that threatens to tear our democratic process apart and poison the minds of the American public.
"With reporters throwing due diligence and fact-finding to the side in a rush to file their stories first, it's evident that we truly are living in a broken system."
The other accuser, Kristin Anderson, told the Washington Post Mr Trump put his hand up her skirt and touched her underwear.
She said it happened when she was sitting on a couch talking to friends at the China Club in New York in the early 1990s.
Ms Anderson said she shoved the hand away, got up from the couch and took a good look at the man responsible.
She recognised him immediately as Donald Trump. "He was so distinctive looking - with the hair and the eyebrows. I mean, nobody else has those eyebrows," she is quoted as saying.
At the time Ms Anderson said she was in her twenties and trying to forge a career as a model.
She said Mr Trump was a big celebrity whose face was all over the tabloids and a regular visitor to New York's clubs.
Now aged 46, Ms Anderson works as a photographer and lives in southern California.
The allegations are the latest in a series made by women who have accused Mr Trump of sexual assault and making unwanted physical advances.
Last week a video was released which showed him bragging about being able to grope women because of his fame.
Following the release of the 2005 recording, Mr Trump initially said he was sorry "if anyone was offended" by what he called the "locker room banter".
Footage has also emerged from 1992 in which Mr Trump tells a young girl he would be dating her in 10 years.
On Thursday First Lady Michelle Obama slammed Mr Trump's treatment of women, saying that his "obscene" comments had shaken her "to my core". 
His Democrat rival for the presidency, Hillary Clinton, has accused Mr Trump of "stalking" her during the second televised debate.
In her first interview since Sunday's showdown, she told NBC's The Ellen DeGeneres Show - which is due to air later - his movements on stage made her feel "really weird".
"It was clear that my opponent Donald Trump was going to try to dominate the space, almost to the exclusion of the people who were sitting there," she said.
But Mr Trump dismissed Mrs Clinton's claims he was trying to get into her space.
"She walks in front of me, you know?" he said druing the Greensboro rally. "And when she walked in front of me, believe me, I wasn't impressed."
The sex allegations are continuing to damage Mr Trump's election chances. According to a new Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll, he trails Mrs Clinton by seven percentage points.

Nigeria's president Muhammadu Buhari says wife 'belongs to my kitchen

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has shrugged off criticism from his wife about his leadership style by saying 'she belongs to my kitchen'.
The country's first lady, Aisha Buhari has openly questioned her husband's work and said she may not support him if he runs again unless he shakes up his government. 
Instead of taking offence, Mr Buhari laughed it off and said: "I don't know which party my wife belongs to, but she belongs to my kitchen and my living room and the other room."
He made the comments to reporters in Germany, with Chancellor Angela Merkel standing by his side, who glared at him at first and then laughed.
Seventy-three year-old Mr Buhari said he hopes his wife remembers he was elected in his fourth run at the presidency last year. 
The country's first lady, Aisha Buhari has openly questioned her husband's work and said she may not support him if he runs again unless he shakes up his government. 
Instead of taking offence, Mr Buhari laughed it off and said: "I don't know which party my wife belongs to, but she belongs to my kitchen and my living room and the other room."

Samsung Galaxy Note 7 smartphones banned from all US flights

Samsung Galaxy Note 7 phones have been banned from all planes in the US following reports of the devices catching fire. 
The order from the country's Transportation Department bars owners from carrying on the phones or taking them in baggage during flights from 5pm UK time on Saturday. 
It warned that people who packed the devices in checked luggage raised the risk of "a catastrophic incident", and passengers caught attempting to bring them on a plane could be fined or have them confiscated. 
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said: "We recognise that banning these phones from airlines will inconvenience some passengers, but the safety of all those aboard an aircraft must take priority.
"We are taking this additional step because even one fire incident inflight poses a high risk of severe personal injury and puts many lives at risk."Samsung recalled about 2.5 million of its flagship phones last month after reports some had caught fire because of faulty lithium batteries.
Earlier this week, Samsung permanently discontinued production and sales of the Note 7 worldwide after failing to overcome the battery problems.
Growing concern about the device had already prompted airlines to warn passengers not to switch on or charge their phones during flights, or stow them in checked baggage.
The Federal Aviation Administration recently banned the use of them onboard US aircraft because of the device's potential to overheat and explode.
The firm also sent customers in the US fire-resistant packages this week to return the faulty devices.
The kits contain a protective bag, thermally insulated boxes and gloves.
The South Korean firm said its profits will take a £4.3bn hit from costs associated with its failed smartphone.

'Hard Brexit' is the only Brexit warns EU president Donald Tusk

"Hard Brexit" is the only offer on the table, European Council president Donald Tusk has warned, unless the UK changes its mind and decides to stay in the EU.
In a strongly-worded intervention, Mr Tusk insisted the UK would not be able to retain the benefits of European Union membership whilst also blocking free movement of people and ending contributions to the Brussels budget.
Mr Tusk said it was "useless to speculate about soft Brexit", which would enable the UK to retain the closest possible ties to the bloc after leaving.
He also told the European Policy Centre that the Leave campaign's demand to "take back control" would ultimately be "painful for Britons".
He said: "This approach has definitive consequences, both for the position of the UK Government and for the whole process of negotiations.
"Regardless of magic spells, this means a de facto will to radically loosen relations with the EU, something that goes by the name of 'hard Brexit'."
He dismissed Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's "cake" comments during the referendum about being "pro-having it and pro-eating it".
Mr Tusk said: "The words uttered by one of the leading campaigners for Brexit and proponents of the cake philosophy was pure illusion that one can have the EU cake and eat it, too.
"To all who believe in it, I propose a simple experiment: Buy a cake, eat it, and see if it is still there on the plate."
However, the council president added that the UK Government "would find allies" if it wanted to reverse the Brexit decision after article 50 had been triggered.
Boris couldn't resist a quip about the ivory ban and Donald Tusk
Image Caption:Boris Johnson described access to the EU single market as 'increasingly useless'
"In my opinion, the only real alternative to a 'hard Brexit' is 'no Brexit'," said Mr Tusk.
"Of course it is and can only be for the UK to assess the outcome of the negotiations and determine if Brexit is really in their interest."
His comments came as Mr Johnson suggested Britain can get a trade deal that is "of greater value" to the UK economy than access to the EU single market, which he described as "increasingly useless".
Giving evidence to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, Mr Johnson said: "It doesn't mean that we are going to be hostile to people of talent who want to live and work here.
"I think it is extremely important that we continue to send out a signal of openness and welcome to the many brilliant people who help to drive the London economy and the UK economy."
Mr Johnson conceded that negotiations could take longer than the two years set under Article 50, but he insisted he was "absolutely confident" that a good deal would eventually be reached.
Critics have warned that loss of access to the single market would harm British businesses by denying them a marketplace of 500 million consumers free of tariffs.