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Sunday, January 22, 2017

Trident 'cover-up' claims: Fallon likely to face questions in Commons

Sir Michael Fallon is expected to be quizzed by MPs today over claims Downing Street covered up a Trident missile test failure just weeks before a crucial Commons vote.

The Defence Secretary is likely to be forced to make a Commons statement or answer an urgent question after Theresa May refused four times in a TV interview to say whether she knew about the malfunction.

The Sunday Times has revealed that a Trident II D5 missile veered off course after being launched from the British submarine HMS Vengeance off the coast of Florida in June last year.

It happened only weeks before Mrs May became Prime Minister - but she made no mention of the failed test when she persuaded Parliament to spend £40bn on new Trident submarines on 18 July.

After five-hours of debate, MPs voted in favour of renewing Trident by 472 votes to 117, a majority of 355, on a motion backed by almost the entire Conservative Party and more than half of Labour MPs.

But it was opposed by all Scottish National Party MPs, the Lib Dems and the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a lifelong unilateralist who spoke out strongly against Trident during the debate.

:: Alistair Bunkall - Why the Trident 'cover-up' only makes things worse

Asked in an interview on the Andrew Marr Show if she knew about the test failure when she spoke in the debate, which was one of her first big tests as PM, Mrs May repeatedly refused to answer.

"I have absolute faith in our Trident missiles," she said.

"It was about whether or not we should renew Trident, whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident.

"I think we should defend our country, I think we should play our role in NATO with an independent nuclear deterrent. Jeremy Corbyn thinks differently."

Pressed three more times on whether or not she knew about the missile failure, Mrs May again dodged the question, saying: "There are tests that take place all the time regularly for our nuclear deterrents.

Eating burnt toast 'may increase cancer risk'

Eating certain foods that have been cooked at high temperatures could be linked to cancer, according to health officials.

The danger foods include chips, toast, biscuits, crackers, crisps, breakfast cereals (except for porridge), coffee, cooked pizza bases, black olives and cereal-based baby foods.

Also on the list are root vegetables such as potatoes, sweet potatoes, beetroot, turnip, swede and parsnips once they have been fried until dark brown or crispy.

When cooked at high temperatures (above 120C) a chemical compound forms called acrylamide and studies on mice have shown that high levels of it can cause neurological damage and cancer.

Studies in humans have proved inconclusive.

However, the US Environmental Protection Agency has said it is "likely to be carcinogenic to humans" and the International Agency for Research on Cancer described it as a "probable human carcinogen".

Acrylamide forms from the chemical reaction between some sugars and the amino acid asparagine but the reaction is less likely when food is boiled, steamed or microwaved.

The UK's Food Standards Agency said people should only fry, roast, bake or toast starchy food until it is a golden yellow colour.

People should also not keep potatoes in the fridge, the FSA said, as this can increase the level of acrylamide. Instead, store raw potatoes in a dark and cool place at above 6C.

Gavin Shears, a senior policy adviser in contaminants at the FSA, said there was no expectation that people would "radically change" their diets if they were already eating a balanced selection of food.

He added: "If you slightly overdo your roast potatoes on a Sunday, it's not that you have to throw them away.

"We're not asking people to cut out certain foods.

"This is about reducing your overall lifetime risk through simple steps."

Gambia: A lesson for African dictators

Soon after the peaceful transition of power from Barack Obama to Donald Trump in the US, Gambia's crisis was also resolved without a single gunshot. The embattled President Yahya Jammeh appeared on national TV announcing his decision "to relinquish the mantle of leadership".

Jammeh's decision to step down was not only important to his own people, as he effectively decided not to push the country into bloodshed to retain power, but it also set an important precedent in Africa for a peaceful transition of power after a decades-long dictatorship.
The descent into a preventable crisis

The political turmoil in Gambia, was the result of what I call "the curse of an authoritarian electoral defeat". It is a curse that plagues any country with long authoritarian rule where questions about the fate of the outgoing leader during and after the handover of power and about the transition from authoritarian to democratic politics remain unresolved.

Jammeh took power in Gambia in 1994 through a military coup and stayed in power for 22 years, getting regularly re-elected in, what were perceived as, unfair elections. On December 1, 2016 Jammeh's opponent, Adama Barrow, won the elections with a four percent lead, a defeat that the incumbent initially accepted.

The crisis started when, on December 9, Jammeh rescinded his earlier concession of defeat . Although Jammeh claimed that there were electoral irregularities, what really pushed him to change his mind was his fear of political reprisals against him by the opposition.

Instead of seizing Jammeh's concession of defeat as an opportunity to negotiate an exit strategy ensuring peaceful transfer of power, politics of vengeance, not uncommon in transitions from authoritarian rule, started to creep into the political discourse. Members of the opposition started talking about annulling Gambia's withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, refusing immunity to Jammeh, having him prosecuted, and seizing his assets.

Jammeh was cornered and went on the offensive, declaring a state of emergency and pressing the parliament to extend his rule by three months.
Diplomatic efforts

Central to the success of diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis was regional leadership. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) took the lead both in setting the agenda and launching the diplomatic process which involved five rounds of presidential missions to Banjul mobilising a total number of six African presidents, including Nobel Peace Prize laurate, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, president of Liberia.

Unlike in other African transfer of power crises, where power sharing was the focus of negotiations, ECOWAS decided not to compromise and pushed for enforcing the outcome of the December 1 elections.

Its diplomatic efforts also received firm support from international actors such as the African Union, which warned Jammeh of " serious consequences ", the United Nations, and the European Union.

An important factor in the successful resolution of the crisis was that ECOWAS did not limit its actions only to diplomacy, but also backed its efforts with a credible threat of military action. Apart from its 17 December summit decision to "undertake all necessary action" - a euphemism for use of force - ECOWAS member states mobilised their troops and prepared to enter Gambia's territory upon the expiry of the 19 January deadline they set for Jammeh to leave power.

The crumbling of Jammeh's regime from inside was major internal catalyst for the swift and peaceful end of the stalemate. The string of cabinet resignations followed by the departure of long-time vice president, Isatou Njie-Saidy, forced Jammeh to dissolve his cabinet entirely. Even Jammeh's military chief who stood by him throughout the crisis eventually announced that he had no plan to fight the ECOWAS troops marching into the Gambia.

Trying to avoid bloodshed, ECOWAS decided not to follow up on its initial threat of ensuring the inauguration of Mr Barrow in Banjul and instead opted for an extraordinary decision to swear Gambia's new president in the Gambian embassy in Senegal's capital, Dakar on January 19 .

This act sealed Jammeh's political defeat, paving the way for the AU and others to withdraw their recognition of Jammeh and welcome Mr Barrow as the legitimate president of Gambia.
A lesson for other African dictators

What ultimately guaranteed the peaceful end of the crisis was the eventual successful negotiation of the terms for Jammeh's exit. In exchange for peaceful transfer of power to the new president, he received guarantees of a secure retirement with full benefits of a citizen, a party leader and a former head of state.

In this way, Gambia set an important precedent for other authoritarian rulers, who continue to be in power long after losing popular support due to their uncertain future. Gambia's experience shows that they can get a dignified exit, if they allow free and fair election.

In so doing, not only would they spare their countries the agonies of a violent transition, but also avoid the fate of Ivory Coast's former president Laurent Gbagbo, who is on trial at the ICC after he was forced out of power by a French military intervention in 2011.

The clear lesson for opposition parties and the citizenry in countries with authoritarian leaders is that not only should they forge unity during elections, but also prepare to work with regional and international bodies for a negotiated exit guaranteeing peaceful transfer of power.

As Barrow's plan to convene a truth and reconciliation commission for dealing with past abuses shows, Jammeh's exit does not completely preclude the pursuit of measures of accountability as part of an inclusive transitional process.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has five-year prison term in Iran confirmed

A British-Iranian mother jailed in Iran has had her five-year prison sentence confirmed, according to state media.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was arrested at Tehran airport last April as she attempted to return to the UK following a holiday with her two-year-old daughter.

The 38-year-old charity worker, from Hampstead, northwest London, was subsequently sentenced to five years by the revolutionary court on "secret charges".

This has now been finalised by the Tehran prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, according to a report by Mizanonline.ir, which is linked to the country's judiciary.

Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's toddler, Gabriella, remains in Iran with family after authorities seized her passport.

Iran does not recognise dual nationalities, and those detained cannot receive consular assistance.

Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's husband Richard Ratcliffe has branded her sentence as "a punishment without a crime" and previously said she was struggling most with being separated from her daughter.

He also said his wife had suffered hair and weight loss as a result of her ordeal.

Why do Russians want to name Godless Street after Trump?

It took three hours to reach to this rough and ready looking street, in a Russian city called Ryazan.

Graceless, oversized apartment blocks line one side of the snow-swept track - while the other side is dotted with crumbling, wooden homes pre-dating Russia's 1917 revolution.

The only thing the Soviet-era seems to have contributed to this weary landscape is the name - "Godless Street" - Marxist-Leninist bureaucrats bestowing something of an honorific that few people seem to like.

A few months back a local historian and writer called Sergey Bizyukin came up with an idea he thought would liven things up in the town.

He tabled an online petition, urging the authorities to rename it Trump Street - a petition that has now won 270 signatures.

"He definitely is a very interesting character and talent," said Mr Bizyukin mirroring the effusive, 24/7 praise that government-controlled media has been heaping on the American billionaire's shoulders.

But this thoughtful academic is not simply flattering from afar. His petition is more like a hope-induced aspiration.

Like many educated Russians, Sergey is a citizen of an isolated and increasingly impoverished nation (the average monthly salary of £416 ($516) is lower than China and comparable with India) - and a healthy relationship with Mr Trump's America would come as a relief.

He said: "The reason to do this was to try and make Russia-US relations better. Many people are tired of all the aggressive propaganda - they would like to be friends and talk to US people - they want kinder, more positive relationship."

We went up and down Godless Street to see what the local residents thought and many sided with Mr Bizyukin.

"Trump says he is going to cancel Russian sanctions and he doesn't say stuff like (American Senator) John McCain - you know, that Russia is the enemy," said one man.

"He's got a face that I really like," said another, chuckling to himself.

The former KGB agent who runs the country also seems to agree.

President Vladimir Putin has fired off his own honorifics in Mr Trump's direction: "Very flamboyant and talented," he said at the closing stages of one press conference - "nobody believed he could win except for us," at another.

Of course the Russian leader may have offered more than just sweet-sounding words. US intelligence agencies say Mr Putin authorised a hacking and disinformation campaign designed to denigrate Hilary Clinton and put Mr Trump in the White House.

President Trump has certainly warmed to Mr Putin, listing a series of surprisingly pro-Russia pronouncements during the election campaign - including a pledge to drop economic sanctions imposed after the Russians annexed Crimea in 2014.

In fact, analysts think "Team Trump" is absolutely bristling to do geo-political deals with the Russians.

Commentator Anna Arutunyan said: "The often mutually contradictory statements coming out of Trump as his team signal they he is looking to cut a deal and what that deal is doesn't really matter as long as I have a deal… the point is let's do something lets have an agreement that we can wave around."

If you tot-up Mr Trump's utterances on the importance of "strong leadership" and criticisms of NATO, the EU and international cooperation more generally, it does appear that both men will find plenty to bond over.

Some analysts predict the new White House will sign-off on a multi-power world order with a Russian "sphere of influence" in eastern Europe and central Asia.

However, there are plenty of people in Russia who think this new-edition "special relationship" will never make it that far.

Ultra-nationalist leader Yevgeny Fyodorov (and elected member of Mr Putin's own United Russia party) says the whole thing will soon sour because Mr Trump's primary objective - making America great - will never be acceptable to the Russians.

He said: "Russia wants to change the world order from a 'uni' to 'multi-polar' world. Russia wants to be equal. Trump hasn't even said half a word to suggest he agrees (with that).

"It will be impossible to agree on the main question. This means a struggle, a rivalry that will intensify during Trump's presidency. In the end, the strongest side will win."

Mr Fyodorov here, predicting the speedy resumption of cold-war hostilities and those things that go with it - deepening isolation, massive military expenditure and the threat of nuclear war - as Russia discovers the "true nature" of an "America First" foreign policy.

What is clear is that negotiations between these long-time rivals will be hard-headed affairs undertaken by a group of men and women determined to put national interests first.

One wonders, if this unexpected reset is something Mr Putin may live to regret.

White House discussing US Israel embassy move

The White House says Donald Trump's administration is "beginning" to discuss moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

It would fulfil a pledge Mr Trump made on the campaign trail to transfer the US' diplomatic mission from Tel Aviv where it is at present.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said in a statement: "We are at the very beginning stages of even discussing this subject."

It comes as Israel's Security Cabinet released a statement saying the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has removed restrictions on settlement building.

Sky's Diplomatic Editor Dominic Waghorn said the move is potentially explosive.

He said: "In the 1967 war, Jerusalem was annexed in a move regarded as against international law and a UN resolution has decided Israel's position that it is the eternal capital of Israel is against international law because it has no resolved status, in negotiation.

Theresa May says being woman PM is a 'big statement' to Donald Trump

The Prime Minister has said that when she sits down for talks with Donald Trump she will be making the "biggest statement" about the role of women in the world.

Theresa May will become the first world leader to meet the President when she travels to the US later this week for talks.

She said she "won't be afraid" to tell Mr Trump when she finds things "unacceptable".

However, she refused to be drawn on whether she would use the occasion to tackle him over his "misogyny" after protests by millions of women all over the world in the wake of his inauguration.

Mrs May said: "I have already said that some of the comments that Donald Trump has made in relation to women are unacceptable, some of those he himself has apologised for...

"When I sit down I think the biggest statement that will be made about the role of women is the fact that I will be there as a female Prime Minister, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, directly talking to him about the interests that we share."

She told the Andrew Marr Show she was "proud to be only the second female Prime Minister that the UK has had", and added: "I will be talking to Donald Trump about the issues that we share, about how we can build on the special relationship.

"It's the special relationship that also enables us to say when we do find something unacceptable."

The Prime Minister had already condemned lewd comments made by the President in an interview with Sophy Ridge on Sky News earlier this month.

On Saturday, women all over the world staged protests to make a stand for women's rights, including thousands who surrounded the US embassy in London and marched to Trafalgar Square.

:: Dump Trump: Women of the world protest

Mrs May indicated on Sunday that a free trade deal, NATO and defeating terrorism would all be on the table for discussion during her meeting with Mr Trump on Friday.

She also said she would like to welcome the President to the UK later this year, although it would be for Buckingham Palace to confirm a state visit.