Theresa May is parking her tanks directly on Labour's lawn today as a shock poll suggests the Tories could take a majority of votes cast in Wales for the first time in more than 150 years.
The Prime Minister's arrival in South Wales follows her trip to Labour-held Bolton North East - the sort of constituency that, if it changed hands, would be indicative of a Tory landslide and a nightmare for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
In both cases, while Labour is leaking some votes to the Conservatives (and to the Liberal Democrats), it is the boost to the Tories from former UKIP voters which has meant a further setback for the Opposition.
Mrs May's visit comes on the back of a surprise poll from YouGov suggesting the Conservatives could be set to gain the majority of votes in Wales for the first time since 1859 - and not by a slight margin, but a full 10 percentage points.
If that came to pass, it would be a crisis for Labour.
But what is new is not the weakness of Labour, but a peak for the Conservatives - with UKIP working as a waypoint between the parties.
Pollsters often caution to watch the vote share in a poll, not the lead. Labour's vote share is low - the lowest it has been since the nadir of Gordon Brown's premiership in 2009.
But it is not much down on where it was in January, when the company last polled Wales.
Rather, it is UKIP that has borne the brunt of the Conservative surge, down seven percentage points with the Tories up 12.
This is a very large swing from when they last asked the question just three months ago; you shouldn't read too much into any individual poll.
We should also bear in mind that the strength of UKIP was slightly over-represented in the polls ahead of the Welsh Assembly in 2016.
But the findings are remarkable. Even if they are as far out as the general election polls of 2015, it would still indicate the best result in Wales for the Tories in living memory.
And a similar phenomenon is consistently reflected in polls across the country.
If the Conservatives can repeat the trick nationwide - claiming a chunk of the vote from Labour, and a large slice of the diminishing UKIP vote - it could spell disaster for Labour on both sides of Offa's Dyke.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
Cutting immigration not a priority for Labour in Brexit talks
Cutting immigration would not be the main priority for a Labour government as it plans Britain's future outside the European Union.
Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer said the party would put retaining the benefits of the single market and customs union at the centre of its negotiations with Brussels, and bin Theresa May's "reckless" exit strategy.
Sir Keir said EU nationals would have their right to remain in the UK guaranteed on day one of Jeremy Corbyn taking power, and Mr Corbyn would then "seek" reciprocal measures for Britons living in the rest of the bloc.
He said there was "no clearer signal" that Labour wanted to build a close and collaborative future relationship with Brussels.
Sir Keir conceded that in seeking a "reformed" relationship with the single market, or customs union, Labour accepted that rules on free movement of workers could not go on as immigration had been a major factor in the Brexit vote.
In a speech in central London, he said Labour would like Parliament to have a "meaningful" vote on any withdrawal deal late next year, adding that a Labour government would then have time to renegotiate with Brussels if MPs rejected what was on offer.
Labour also wants to ditch the Government's Great Repeal Bill, which Sir Keir claimed would harm protections for workers and hit environmental safeguards.
"We all know that for many Brexiteers in the Tory Party, this was why they wanted to Leave," he said.
Sir Keir said EU nationals would have their right to remain in the UK guaranteed on day one of Jeremy Corbyn taking power, and Mr Corbyn would then "seek" reciprocal measures for Britons living in the rest of the bloc.
He said there was "no clearer signal" that Labour wanted to build a close and collaborative future relationship with Brussels.
Sir Keir conceded that in seeking a "reformed" relationship with the single market, or customs union, Labour accepted that rules on free movement of workers could not go on as immigration had been a major factor in the Brexit vote.
In a speech in central London, he said Labour would like Parliament to have a "meaningful" vote on any withdrawal deal late next year, adding that a Labour government would then have time to renegotiate with Brussels if MPs rejected what was on offer.
Labour also wants to ditch the Government's Great Repeal Bill, which Sir Keir claimed would harm protections for workers and hit environmental safeguards.
"We all know that for many Brexiteers in the Tory Party, this was why they wanted to Leave," he said.
Election 2017: Ex-UKIP donor Arron Banks says party wrong to go to 'war' with Islam
UKIP has been accused of going to "war" with Muslims by one of its most prominent supporters.
Leader Paul Nuttall has unveiled plans to force girls at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) to undergo regular medical checks, as well as a ban on burkas in public and outlawing sharia law.
The Muslim Council of Britain has said the policy - part of UKIP's "Integration Agenda" - was "deeply regrettable" and hit out at stereotyping around "bombs, beards and burkas".
And Arron Banks, a former donor to UKIP, has been critical, saying the party was going in "entirely the wrong direction".
Mr Banks, who on Monday announced he would not stand to become an MP in Clacton, wrote on Twitter: "I don't approve of the war on Muslim religion."
The party's foreign affairs spokesman has also quit his post in protest at Mr Nuttall's plans to ban the burka.
West Midlands MEP James Carver described the policy as "incompatible" with his desire to represent all of his constituents and to seek a global perspective for the UK.
Defending the measures, deputy leader Peter Whittle said: "The burka is not something in the Koran, it's not specified by the Koran, it's a cultural practice, FGM is a cultural practice."
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We have talked about these issues in UKIP for many years - 2010 we actually had this in our manifesto, that we should ban face coverings - not, for example the headscarf, not those sorts of things at all, just purely the face covering, because we believe that is a literal barrier to integration in our society.
"We are actually in this country rather behind the curve on this, because even the biggest party in the EU has called for an EU-wide ban on this."
Leader Paul Nuttall has unveiled plans to force girls at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) to undergo regular medical checks, as well as a ban on burkas in public and outlawing sharia law.
The Muslim Council of Britain has said the policy - part of UKIP's "Integration Agenda" - was "deeply regrettable" and hit out at stereotyping around "bombs, beards and burkas".
And Arron Banks, a former donor to UKIP, has been critical, saying the party was going in "entirely the wrong direction".
Mr Banks, who on Monday announced he would not stand to become an MP in Clacton, wrote on Twitter: "I don't approve of the war on Muslim religion."
The party's foreign affairs spokesman has also quit his post in protest at Mr Nuttall's plans to ban the burka.
West Midlands MEP James Carver described the policy as "incompatible" with his desire to represent all of his constituents and to seek a global perspective for the UK.
Defending the measures, deputy leader Peter Whittle said: "The burka is not something in the Koran, it's not specified by the Koran, it's a cultural practice, FGM is a cultural practice."
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We have talked about these issues in UKIP for many years - 2010 we actually had this in our manifesto, that we should ban face coverings - not, for example the headscarf, not those sorts of things at all, just purely the face covering, because we believe that is a literal barrier to integration in our society.
"We are actually in this country rather behind the curve on this, because even the biggest party in the EU has called for an EU-wide ban on this."
Japan warns citizens they might have only 10 minutes to prepare for a North Korean missile
TOKYO – North Korea might be talking about building missiles that can reach the United States, but Kim Jong Un’s regime already has lots of missiles that can reach Japan. So the Japanese government is preparing its citizens to be ready in case a missile comes their way — something that could come with less than 10 minutes’ warning.
The prime minister’s office issued new “actions to protect yourself” guidelines this week, including for the first time instructions on how to respond if a North Korean ballistic missile is heading toward Japan.
Three of the four missiles that North Korea launched March 6 fell within Japan’s exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan, the body of water that separates Japan and the Korean Peninsula. North Korea later said that it was practicing to hit U.S. military bases in Japan.
North Korea showed almost two decades ago that it has all of Japan in its reach. In 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong-1 missile — ostensibly for launching a satellite — over Japan and into its economic zone on the Pacific Ocean side.
The Japanese government’s advice isn’t exactly helpful, amounting to basically: you won’t get the warning in time, but if you do, then go to a strong building.
As North Korea has issued threats and paraded missiles this month, Japan’s official civil defense website has had 5.7 million visitors in the first 23 days of April — compared with usual monthly traffic of less than 400,000 hits.
Under the "frequently asked questions" section, the government poses the question of how many minutes it will take for a missile to reach Japan.
“When a missile is launched from North Korea, it will not take long to reach Japan,” the answer reads. “For example, the ballistic missile launched from [North Korea] on February 7 last year took 10 minutes to fly over Okinawa.”
The central government has also been holding meetings to instruct local governments what they should do if a North Korean missile hits their region.
This meeting was unprecedented in post-war Japan, the Asahi Shimbun reported, the first time the Japanese government has taken steps to instruct residents on how to prepare for enemy attacks.
In Yamagata prefecture, which extends to the Sea of Japan, plans are underway to conduct an evacuation drill as soon as possible.
In Akita prefecture to the north, Governor Norihisa Satake instructed his disaster management department to stay on alert around the clock this month.
To the south, in Fukui, the local government will have its staff stay on alert overnight Tuesday, in case of any provocations linked to the anniversary of the foundation of North Korea’s army.
In “Actions and Other Measures In Case of Falling of Ballistic Missile” posted on its website last week, Fukui’s prefectural government told citizens to “evacuate to a substantial building or underground shopping area” if they were outside, and to lie down under cover and away from windows if inside.
Japan has a system called “J-Alert” designed to broadcast information about an imminent missile attack to disaster management officials at the local level. Here’s how The Japan Times described the system:
From there, local governments will relay warnings via outdoor loudspeaker systems, emergency broadcast channels on cable TV, FM radio broadcasts and cellphone alerts.
If you are outside when a warning is sounded or received, the government’s advice is to proceed calmly to the strongest concrete building you can quickly get to, or to go underground, if possible. Families in their homes are advised to stay low to the floor, take cover underneath tables and to stay away from glass windows.
But Osaka Mayor Hirofumi Yoshimura said that there would be almost no time to respond to a North Korean missile.
“A missile may not be detected as soon as it leaves the launch pad ... and that could take several minutes,” he said, according to the Japan Times’ report. “Depending on the case, the warnings and alarms might only sound four or five minutes before a missile arrives."
Meanwhile, sales of nuclear shelters and radiation-blocking air purifiers have surged in Japan, Reuters reported. A small company that specializes in building nuclear shelters, generally under people’s houses, has received eight orders in April alone compared with six orders during a typical year.
Increased efforts to make contingency plans in response to growing public concern will also likely accelerate the government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s push for an upgraded ballistic missile defense system for the nation, the Asahi Shimbun wrote.
An influential group of politicians is publicly arguing for technically pacifist Japan to acquire the ability to strike North Korea instead of having to rely on the United States for its defense, and has submitted a recommendation to the government to this effect.
The prime minister’s office issued new “actions to protect yourself” guidelines this week, including for the first time instructions on how to respond if a North Korean ballistic missile is heading toward Japan.
Three of the four missiles that North Korea launched March 6 fell within Japan’s exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan, the body of water that separates Japan and the Korean Peninsula. North Korea later said that it was practicing to hit U.S. military bases in Japan.
North Korea showed almost two decades ago that it has all of Japan in its reach. In 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong-1 missile — ostensibly for launching a satellite — over Japan and into its economic zone on the Pacific Ocean side.
The Japanese government’s advice isn’t exactly helpful, amounting to basically: you won’t get the warning in time, but if you do, then go to a strong building.
As North Korea has issued threats and paraded missiles this month, Japan’s official civil defense website has had 5.7 million visitors in the first 23 days of April — compared with usual monthly traffic of less than 400,000 hits.
Under the "frequently asked questions" section, the government poses the question of how many minutes it will take for a missile to reach Japan.
“When a missile is launched from North Korea, it will not take long to reach Japan,” the answer reads. “For example, the ballistic missile launched from [North Korea] on February 7 last year took 10 minutes to fly over Okinawa.”
The central government has also been holding meetings to instruct local governments what they should do if a North Korean missile hits their region.
This meeting was unprecedented in post-war Japan, the Asahi Shimbun reported, the first time the Japanese government has taken steps to instruct residents on how to prepare for enemy attacks.
In Yamagata prefecture, which extends to the Sea of Japan, plans are underway to conduct an evacuation drill as soon as possible.
In Akita prefecture to the north, Governor Norihisa Satake instructed his disaster management department to stay on alert around the clock this month.
To the south, in Fukui, the local government will have its staff stay on alert overnight Tuesday, in case of any provocations linked to the anniversary of the foundation of North Korea’s army.
In “Actions and Other Measures In Case of Falling of Ballistic Missile” posted on its website last week, Fukui’s prefectural government told citizens to “evacuate to a substantial building or underground shopping area” if they were outside, and to lie down under cover and away from windows if inside.
Japan has a system called “J-Alert” designed to broadcast information about an imminent missile attack to disaster management officials at the local level. Here’s how The Japan Times described the system:
From there, local governments will relay warnings via outdoor loudspeaker systems, emergency broadcast channels on cable TV, FM radio broadcasts and cellphone alerts.
If you are outside when a warning is sounded or received, the government’s advice is to proceed calmly to the strongest concrete building you can quickly get to, or to go underground, if possible. Families in their homes are advised to stay low to the floor, take cover underneath tables and to stay away from glass windows.
But Osaka Mayor Hirofumi Yoshimura said that there would be almost no time to respond to a North Korean missile.
“A missile may not be detected as soon as it leaves the launch pad ... and that could take several minutes,” he said, according to the Japan Times’ report. “Depending on the case, the warnings and alarms might only sound four or five minutes before a missile arrives."
Meanwhile, sales of nuclear shelters and radiation-blocking air purifiers have surged in Japan, Reuters reported. A small company that specializes in building nuclear shelters, generally under people’s houses, has received eight orders in April alone compared with six orders during a typical year.
Increased efforts to make contingency plans in response to growing public concern will also likely accelerate the government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s push for an upgraded ballistic missile defense system for the nation, the Asahi Shimbun wrote.
An influential group of politicians is publicly arguing for technically pacifist Japan to acquire the ability to strike North Korea instead of having to rely on the United States for its defense, and has submitted a recommendation to the government to this effect.
Plastic waste on beaches underestimated by 80% - study
The amount of ocean plastic washing up on beaches around the world could be underestimated by up to 80%, according to new research being carried out in Australia.
Dr Jennifer Lavers, from the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania, has told Sky News current pollution data could represent just "the tip of the iceberg" of what is really in the environment.
Her study compared the number of plastic items found during a typical beach clean-up - the main source of data for estimates about the quantity of waste on coastlines - with the amount subsequently identified by more thorough surveys of the same areas.
Initial results of numerous comparative experiments suggest a typical beach clean-up, even if carried out by multiple individuals covering the same area, on average only identifies between 20 and 25% of the waste that is actually present on the surface.
"The reality of the plastic situation is that we are only skimming the surface," Dr Lavers said.
Election 2017: Pro-EU campaigners draw up hit list of Brexit MPs
Pro-EU campaigners have come up with a hit list of Brexit-supporting MPs they will try to get rid of at the General Election.
Key supporters of Leave will be targeted in 20 constituencies, while support will also be given to 20 MPs who have spoken out against a hard Brexit.
Among the seats that pro-European groups Open Britain, European Movement and Britain for Europe plan to focus on during the campaign are those of former Conservative Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith and Labour's Kate Hoey.
They will also use its database of 600,000 supporters to provide help to Labour's Mary Creagh, Tory Neil Carmichael and Green MP Caroline Lucas.
The groups say more MPs will be added to both lists as the campaign progresses.
Labour former Cabinet minister Lord Mandelson, an Open Britain board member, said: "As a former European trade commissioner, I have seen such negotiations from the inside.
"For Britain to get the best possible trade deal, it is totally counter-productive for Theresa May to go into them with a rigid set of red lines."
Stephen Dorrell, chair of European Movement Chair, said the June 8 vote was "about something much bigger than party politics".
"Pro-Europeans need to stand up and be counted between now and June 8th," he said.
"The supporters of our organisations want to know where they can make a difference in this campaign and we are providing the tools for them to be able to.
"It is time for our activists to get behind all candidates, regardless of which political tradition they are from, if they are committed to opposing hard Brexit and willing to keep an open mind about the Brexit negotiations and the national interest."
The 20 Brexit-supporting MPs being targeted are:
:: Kate Hoey (Labour, Vauxhall)
:: Victoria Borwick (Conservative, Kensington)
:: David Burrowes (Conservative, Enfield Southgate)
:: Nicola Blackwood (Conservative, Oxford West and Abingdon)
:: Charlotte Leslie (Conservative, Bristol North West)
:: Theresa Villiers (Conservative, Chipping Barnet)
:: James Berry (Conservative, Kingston and Surbiton)
:: Matthew Offord (Conservative, Hendon)
:: Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
:: Steve Baker (Conservative, Wycombe)
:: Iain Duncan Smith (Conservative, Chingford and Woodford Green)
:: Byron Davies (Conservative, Gower)
:: Paul Scully (Conservative, Sutton and Cheam)
:: Gavin Robinson (Democratic Unionist Party, Belfast East)
:: Christopher Davies (Conservative, Brecon and Radnorshire)
:: William Wragg (Conservative, Hazel Grove)
:: Luke Hall (Conservative, Thornbury and Yate)
:: James Heappey (Conservative, Wells)
:: Derek Thomas (Conservative, St Ives)
:: Caroline Ansell (Conservative, Eastbourne)
Campaigners call for digital cannabis market for the UK
The UK should have a legal, digital-only cannabis market, according to a new report.
The regulated market would limit access to anyone younger than 21, with checks similar to buying alcohol online.
The report, from pro-drug legalisation think tank Volte Face, argues that a controlled market would offer safer products and offer the ability for revenues to be taxed - potentially raising around £800m for the exchequer.
"We believe that Britain's multibillion-pound cannabis market should be developed and operated exclusively online by a private sector that is stringently controlled and regulated by democratically elected governments," the report, called The Green Screen, argues.
But anti-drugs campaigners have called the suggestion an "opportunity for national disaster" and "absolutely the most irresponsible thing to do".
Around 2.1 million people use cannabis every year, according to government figures, despite it being illegal.
Mike Power, the author of The Green Screen report, told Sky News: "The current situation, any young person with five or ten pounds can come to Camden and buy a bag of cannabis.
"They can't go to a supermarket and buy alcohol without having their identity checked and verified."
"We would argue that a digital model would enable that to be the case. So that every purchase would have to have age and ID verified before you actually bought it.
"As well as that, it would mean that you could tax every single purchase, and monitor it, and make sure that money was going directly into the taxpayers' pocket."
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