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Thursday, June 23, 2016

Goodbye EU Campaign: Hello Referendum Result

The UK last had a referendum on European membership in 1975.
Now, 41 years later, it has held a second vote, once again brought about by an incumbent Prime Minister's attempts to hold his divided party together. Back then, Harold Wilson was Labour Leader, today David Cameron is Conservative Prime Minister.
Today’s referendum became inevitable when the Conservatives won an outright majority in the General Election last year – holding it was a pledge in the Tory manifesto which he was now obliged to deliver.
Harold Wilson
Cameron negotiated what he said was a binding new deal for the UK with his 27 European Union partners, and on his return from Brussels on 20 February 2016 he announced that the Referendum would be held on 23 June.
Even though the Government's official position was to remain in, the Prime Minister guaranteed that ministers could campaign on the side of their choice without endangering their careers.
As Brexit became a catchphrase, Cabinet Ministers Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, Theresa Villiers and John Whittingdale signed up, along with Iain Duncan Smith, who resigned from the Government in protest, he said, at George Osborne's budget.
After much public dithering, Boris Johnson threw in his lot with them, denying it was because he thought it was the quickest way to become Prime Minister.
Neither campaign got off to a good start.
The chair of the Britain Stronger in Europe, businessman Stuart Rose, had difficulty remembering his organisation's clunky name and little more was heard of him after he suggested leaving the EU could mean higher wages for British workers.
Two different groups battled for designation as the official Out campaign: Vote Leave, the Conservative dominated grouping, and Leave.EU, later rebranded Grassroots Out, dominated by the UKIP leader Nigel Farage and his main financial backer, Arron Banks.
Vote Leave won the designation but as the campaign wore on they increasingly made their case on Mr Farage's terms, suggesting they could curb immigration as their trump card.
Economic arguments dominated for the Remain campaign. Leading economic authorities, including the IMF, the governor of the Bank of England and Office of Budget Responsibility backed them up - all agreeing Britain would take a financial hit if it left the EU.
The experts roundly condemned Vote Leave's claim, emblazoned on their battle bus, that Britain sends £350m each week to Brussels, or that, once out, such sums would be readily available for the NHS. Challenged on Sky News, the Out campaigner Michael Gove retorted "people have had enough of experts".
However, few experts endorsed the claims from the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that families would be worse off by £4,300 a year in the event of Brexit or that it would mean he would have to raise taxes and cut spending in an emergency Budget.
The two sides squabbled fruitlessly about which of them would have been endorsed by unimpeachable historical figures including Winston Churchill, Adolf Hitler, Margaret Thatcher and the Queen.
When David Cameron mentioned war graves and said the EU had helped "anchor peace and stability", Boris Johnson called him "demented" for conjuring up "bubonic plague and World War 3".
Meanwhile, world leaders, with the exception of Donald Trump and a silent President Putin, backed David Cameron's position. President Obama warned that a UK outside the EU would find itself "at the back of the queue" trying to negotiate trade deals with the US.
With opinion polls showing the two sides deadlocked, voters said they wanted more information and complained about the "nastiness" of the campaigns, which reached ludicrous levels when rival flotillas of small boats confronted each other on the Thames opposite parliament.
The Leave camp accused their opponents of "Project Fear" scare tactics. Remain countered that the Brexiteers were guilty of "Project Hate" because of their concentration on immigration.
They made this charge strongly after Nigel Farage produced his "Breaking Point" poster showing the long lines of desperate migrants from Africa and the Middle East.
A week ago the Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered outside her constituency surgery.
Campaigning was suspended for three days. When it resumed Brendan Cox said his wife had been killed by "hate" and highlighted her active backing for Britain remaining in the EU.
Back in 1975 UK citizens voted to stay in the European Community (the Common Market) by a margin of two to one.
Whichever side wins, the result is universally expected to be much closer this time on the question of membership of what has become the European Union.

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