Trump and Iran: Scenarios of escalation

Iran and the new Trump administration have already clashed with potentially disastrous consequences. The extreme vulnerability of the rapport between the two countries following the nuclear deal was on show recently as Iran tested a new long-range missile, and the Washington put Iran "on notice".

Yet, it is unsurprising that after 35 years of enmity, the revived US-Iran relationship would stumble as a radically different leadership takes power in Washington. Indeed, it might fall further should a similar shift occur in May after presidential elections take place in Iran. Does this mean the nuclear deal is doomed? It may be. But if so, it would be as much by default as by design. Four unexpected consequences of ill-conceived moves on Washington's part could intensify the conflict and collapse the deal. One smart move could save it.
The pitfalls

1) Misreading Iran's bluster as more than an 'opening position'

The legality of the missile launch within the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 by both governments, has drawn much speculation by American analysts, but no actual determination that it broke the letter of the law.

The Trump administration's inexperience in reading the tea leaves of Iran's foreign policy manoeuvres, however, has led it to decide, that, legal or not, the launch was an insult and a threat. So it hurled back a threat of its own.

Yet - much like Trump himself - the Islamic Republic is a prodder and doesn't back down when it gets a reaction. The result: public denunciations and shows of power will likely escalate.

2) Viewing diplomacy with Iran as useless, assuming that all it understands is force

To Trita Parsi, of the American Iranian Council (whose forthcoming book tells the inside story on how exactly the deal was done), to put shouty cards on the table without a soft-exit plan is to misunderstand the game of diplomacy, particularly when it comes to Iran.

What the Iranians do is play multiple hands - the public stage, the back-corridors, the phone lines - which Trump's predecessors did too. If the new administration only grandstands and doesn't balance tough words with secret meetings and smart compromises that suit both countries, the relationship will crash.

3) Mistaking Iran for a failed state

By placing it on the "List of Seven", Trump has put Iran in strange company. The other six are either at war, or lacking central government authority - unlike Iran, which has conducted high-level, government-backed international negotiations with the US over a significant security deal.

This is shaming for Iran, just as it was when George W Bush inducted Iran into the Axis of Evil after it publicly offered to materially support Washington's plans against al-Qaeda after 9/11.