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Friday, March 3, 2017

Lithuanians stock up for 'hybrid' war with Russia

As far as most Lithuanians are concerned the iron curtain is made from pine - their border with the Russian state of Kaliningrad is lined with pine and birch trees as well as a series of concrete posts marking out the frontier.

There are also watchtowers poking out of woods, but the whole area feels unexpectedly and curiously open.

A small band of Lithuanian border guards are deployed on this waterlogged and rather inhospitable patch.

"There are about 50 of us," said a young guard called Tadas Zalauskas, as he wrestled with the steering wheel of his 4x4 truck. "But we need more. Eighty or more - that would be good."

"Do you communicate with the Russians on the other side?" I asked.

"No, they are hiding," he said, gesturing towards the trees.

It was not that long ago that the two groups were citizens of the same country - comrades-in-arms in the Soviet Union.

But that period of time produced memories few Lithuanians cherish and their declaration of independence in 1990 helped ensure the Soviet Union's collapse. This small country of three million has now re-orientated itself westward.

It is a member of both the EU and NATO and as a sign of this commitment it will begin work on two-metre-high fence this summer to further delineate the border.

It's not just a fence, however - the guards told me they will be constructing a "security zone" with cameras and heat sensors designed to stop smugglers, traffickers and other types of unauthorised entry.

Tadas Gecas, a senior officer in the border guard service, said: "I think people will feel more secure now."

However, the country's frontier with Kaliningrad - and its border with Russian ally Belarus - are just too close for comfort for a lot of people here.

In fact, Lithuanians are so unnerved by the current political climate that many are currently mobilising for war - and it is not an exclusively government-directed, top-down affair.

Instead, people like Augustinas and Kristijonas Vizbaras have volunteered for a militia called the Riflemen's Union, which boasts some 10,000 men and women from across the country.

"We are highly skilled, highly motivated, we take this very seriously," said Kristijona Vizbaras.

"We are growing dramatically in numbers. Three years ago we had 50 people in Vilnius - now we have 3,000."

The two brothers, who have built a successful electronics manufacturing business in the suburbs of Lithuania's capital, took me up to the boardroom to show me their personal arsenal.

It consisted of Heckler and Koch machine guns, survival gear and a sharp shooter with a 600 metre range - all of which were purchased with their own money.

"We have been part of the EU for eight years and people enjoy their freedom," said Augustinas.

"The standard of living is growing - and these aren't just words to us. We see what is happening in Russia - it has become a psychotic regime, unpredictable, and yes, everyone is worried."

The Russians have characterised such comments as hysteria, but the brothers reject that notion.

"We are training to defend, so if they don't attack, they have nothing to worry about," said Kristijonas.

That comment could have come from a NATO general with the alliance now shoring up what is known as "Europe's eastern flank".

Some 4,000 troops are being shipped out to the region - with 1,000 German soldiers allocated to Lithuania.

It seems that hostilities may already have begun - although not in the conventional sense.

Sky News obtained an anonymous email sent to the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament and head of police, claiming that German soldiers had raped a 15-year-old orphan. Authorities say the email was a fake.

According to captain Aurimas Kleveckas, from the ministry of defence's strategic communications unit (STRATCOM), it is a perfect example of the threat they face - a "hybrid" attack designed to destabilise.

He said: "We believe that this is the first attempt to use German soldiers against the Lithuanian population. In the future they may use video to record a similar (fake) allegation."

Captain Kleveckas said there was a "high probability" Russians were responsible for the faked email, although Lithuanian police have not been able to locate who wrote it.

Nonetheless, it should serve as a warning to the British, with 800 troops due to deploy to Estonia as part of this NATO mission.

"Their mindset should change from Afghanistan and Iraq," captain Kleveckas said. "(It) should change to hybrid warfare because they are trapped in this right now."

The Lithuanians have already been offering some pointers to a new British army unit, 77th Brigade, on the information warfare they will likely face.

It is a threat this small Baltic nation takes very seriously indeed.

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