Does A Leave Vote Definitely Mean A Brexit?

One referendum to settle the matter once and for all. That was David Cameron's pitch to us as voters. We responded and decided. But is it as simple as that? Does a 'leave' vote definitely mean a Brexit?

EU officials seem to think so. They are already trying to force the pace. The EU's branches of government want a quickie divorce. 

"I would like to get started immediately," said Jean Claude Juncker, European Commission president. 

But he can't and no one else can. Only Britain can begin the process of separation, formally, by invoking Article 50 of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. 

For now it seems, Europe will have to wait and watch politics unfold in Britain.

:: So Just How Do You Divorce The EU?

David Cameron has complicated things. Having said he is not a quitter, he has decided to quit, or do so in a few months. He will not follow through on his own referendum, saying his successor as Conservative leader will have to do so instead.

And there's the rub. People voting to leave may have understandably thought the outcome would be acted on. Well not yet and a lot now depends on politics and diplomacy.

Mr Cameron will be replaced by a new Conservative leader and prime minister who will decide how to exercise the manifest will of the majority of the country regarding Europe.

Then it all comes down to Article 50. Does Parliament have to approve it and how? It is not entirely clear. Expert opinion differs. The Government has studiously avoided clarification.

If it requires a vote, there could be a constitutional crisis. A majority of MPs oppose Brexit. Would they dare defy the outcome of the biggest exercise in democracy in modern British history?

Possibly, if they believe they are acting in the best interests of their constituents. That is after all their duty.

would a new Conservative leader and prime minister be able to remain in power long enough to invoke Article 50, anyway? The Tory majority is a slim one.

If Boris Johnson, or Theresa May, or whoever replaces Mr Cameron face difficulties managing that majority, a new general election looms. 

Could Europe then intervene? A new offer from the EU at that point could be crucial. The Labour leader could campaign on staying in the EU, on the better terms being offered.

They would risk losing the many Labour voters who wanted Brexit but could gain others who want to remain.

It would be a single issue election, in effect a second referendum on Europe. If it led to a remain outcome the fallout would be unimaginably messy but Britain would stay in the EU.

So far, it has to be said, the EU is showing no sign of wanting to wait and play a tactical game to keep Britain in. 

The EU's priority is to maintain stability and prevent a contagion. Logically that requires swift and decisive action. European Parliament President Martin Schulz says he is already consulting lawyers to see if there is a way around Article 50. 

And a revised offer from the EU, to help influence British electoral politics down the line, looks problematic. The EU cannot afford to be generous to the UK for fear of encouraging others to follow its lead.

Speculative scenarios, with enough ifs and buts to shake a stick at? Certainly. But they illustrate the complexities ahead.

We are deep in uncharted territory now; a Bermuda triangle of politics, diplomacy and economics intersecting in the strangest of ways. The old rules of navigation seem to have been upended. But then, aren’t we getting used to that?