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Monday, June 20, 2016

So Just How Do You Divorce The EU Then?

So it's 24 June and the results of the referendum have said that the UK and the EU just don't want the same things any more.
It's time to go our separate ways, but just how are we going to divide the spoils? 
Your questions answered:
What it actually says is: "Any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."
:: Has anyone done it before?
No. Britain is the first country to hold a referendum on leaving the EU and will therefore would be the first country to do so.
However, before you all start shouting "what about Greenland?"; yes it did leave the EU's forerunner the EEC in 1985 - mainly because it wanted its fishing rights back.
It did cede some fishing rights to the EU in return for cash and it's still signed up to the single market so freedom of movement still applies – ie it must take EU immigrants.
:: How long will the divorce take to come through?
Longer than the average 33 weeks it takes to get a divorce in the UK.
Article 50 states the UK will continue to be subject to EU rules for two years after giving its notice to quit. Only after that will those rules cease to apply.
However, it's up to David Cameron as to when he wants to give notice. He's said he will do it straight away. Others have urged him to wait.
It took the Greenlanders three years to thrash out their post-EU deal - but that was mainly all about fish.
Remainers say it will take at least a decade. Certainly, Mr Cameron has said it will take that long to renegotiate the 52 trade deals the UK currently benefits from through its membership of the EU.
:: What actually happens then?
The UK tells the European Council (the body made up of leaders of the 28 member states) that it's off.
The remaining 27 country heads will then thrash out a deal and decide what the UK should get and the arrangements for departure.
The European Parliament has to vote on it and can veto the agreement if MEPs don't like what's on the table.
:: Couldn't we just go, walk out the door, no turning around now?
Yes. Article 50 only applies to what the EU does.
The UK could just repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, slam the door and stomp off.
But there is no getting away from the fact the UK and the EU countries do need to do business together – and both will want some kind of deal.
:: Will we get the record collection and half the house?
What we will get really depends on what the other 27 countries in the EU are prepared to give us.
We might have really hurt their feelings so they could be feeling protective of their stuff – many have indicated as much.
Or they might decide they want to give us quite a bit because being in a relationship with the fifth biggest economy in the world is a good thing.
:: No but seriously, what will the settlement be?
There's a number of things that could happen. It could be this whole referendum turns out to be a giant calling of the EU's bluff.
The EU could be so worried Brexit will trigger exit for other EU countries and cause huge damage to the euro that they offer the UK a much, much better deal than they did in February and beg us to stay.
It would have to offer some serious concessions on freedom of movement, aka immigration, which is the key issue for most Out voters.
Boris Johnson and Michael Gove could then scuttle off to help the PM negotiate this, there will be a second referendum, Boris will be anointed King, the UK will stay in, and the Tories will win in 2020, delivering Johnson victorious to number 10.
Or not.
We could get a deal that means the UK can retain membership of the single market (tariff-free trade with the EU countries).
What strings the EU would attach to this is unclear but the UK could be required to abide by freedom of movement, abide by some existing regulations and maybe pay some cash into the EU pot. Like Norway does.
Or it could be something completely different.
In short, we don't know what the settlement will be.
:: What will happen to all the EU laws?
Some of them – called directives – are implemented through UK law and they will stay but the regulations will fall away.
It means the UK is going to have to make an awful lot of new law. Estimates are that there are around 5,000 pieces of secondary legislation affected.
Although the Government has not shared plans for Brexit, it’s reasonable to hope there is a team of lawyers reviewing areas where new laws will be needed or existing laws can just be copied over.
:: But more MPs want to stay In than Brexit so can't they just veto the public?
Yes. They could do this by simply voting down the Brexit legislation.
But this would mean they were overruling the public and effectively telling them: "You don't know what’s best for the country".
And there's a General Election in 2020 at which, it's fair to guess, MPs would like to keep their seats.
:: Is anyone actually prepared for this divorce?
The Brexit camp has given it quite some thought.
They would immediately enact six laws, allowing them to deport foreign criminals, scrap VAT on energy bills, give £100m of saved EU cash to the NHS, introduce an Australian-style points system on immigration, regain power over UK law and start negotiating trade deals.
:: What if we realise we still love them and want them back?
Tough.
The UK cannot just take a look at the settlement on offer, say "oh, I don't like that, I made a big mistake, please take me back".
Well it could but the EU would likely say "no, we've moved on".
The only way to get back in is to reapply and funnily enough - as with all things EU - that could take a while.
Unless of course the EU wants us back, in which case see above.
:: Time To Decide: A special programme on the eve of the EU Referendum with Dermot Murnaghan on Wednesday from 10pm
:: In or Out: Get all the results and reaction from the EU Referendum from 9.30pm on Thursday

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