Does A Leave Vote Definitely Mean A Brexit?

One referendum to settle the matter once and for all. That was David Cameron's pitch to us as voters. We responded and decided. But is it as simple as that? Does a 'leave' vote definitely mean a Brexit?

EU officials seem to think so. They are already trying to force the pace. The EU's branches of government want a quickie divorce. 

"I would like to get started immediately," said Jean Claude Juncker, European Commission president. 

But he can't and no one else can. Only Britain can begin the process of separation, formally, by invoking Article 50 of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty. 

For now it seems, Europe will have to wait and watch politics unfold in Britain.

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David Cameron has complicated things. Having said he is not a quitter, he has decided to quit, or do so in a few months. He will not follow through on his own referendum, saying his successor as Conservative leader will have to do so instead.

And there's the rub. People voting to leave may have understandably thought the outcome would be acted on. Well not yet and a lot now depends on politics and diplomacy.

Mr Cameron will be replaced by a new Conservative leader and prime minister who will decide how to exercise the manifest will of the majority of the country regarding Europe.

Then it all comes down to Article 50. Does Parliament have to approve it and how? It is not entirely clear. Expert opinion differs. The Government has studiously avoided clarification.

If it requires a vote, there could be a constitutional crisis. A majority of MPs oppose Brexit. Would they dare defy the outcome of the biggest exercise in democracy in modern British history?

Possibly, if they believe they are acting in the best interests of their constituents. That is after all their duty.

would a new Conservative leader and prime minister be able to remain in power long enough to invoke Article 50, anyway? The Tory majority is a slim one.

If Boris Johnson, or Theresa May, or whoever replaces Mr Cameron face difficulties managing that majority, a new general election looms. 

Could Europe then intervene? A new offer from the EU at that point could be crucial. The Labour leader could campaign on staying in the EU, on the better terms being offered.

They would risk losing the many Labour voters who wanted Brexit but could gain others who want to remain.

It would be a single issue election, in effect a second referendum on Europe. If it led to a remain outcome the fallout would be unimaginably messy but Britain would stay in the EU.

So far, it has to be said, the EU is showing no sign of wanting to wait and play a tactical game to keep Britain in. 

The EU's priority is to maintain stability and prevent a contagion. Logically that requires swift and decisive action. European Parliament President Martin Schulz says he is already consulting lawyers to see if there is a way around Article 50. 

And a revised offer from the EU, to help influence British electoral politics down the line, looks problematic. The EU cannot afford to be generous to the UK for fear of encouraging others to follow its lead.

Speculative scenarios, with enough ifs and buts to shake a stick at? Certainly. But they illustrate the complexities ahead.

We are deep in uncharted territory now; a Bermuda triangle of politics, diplomacy and economics intersecting in the strangest of ways. The old rules of navigation seem to have been upended. But then, aren’t we getting used to that?

Top EU Nations Begin Brexit Talks - Without UK

The six founding members of the European Union are meeting in Berlin to discuss Brexit - and the UK has not been invited.

The hastily arranged meeting began with a defiant message from Germany that the UK's shock vote will not destroy the EU.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier vowed they "won't let anyone take Europe from us" but admitted people throughout the continent deserved better solutions to problems such as unemployment, the refugee crisis and terror.

UK Must Trigger Article 50 Urgently - France

The EU's founding members have demanded the UK urgently invoke Article 50 and start the process of Brexit.

Foreign ministers from the six original members attended a hastily arranged meeting in Berlin - with the UK not invited.

Speaking to reporters afterwards, French minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said it was a "matter of respect" that the UK did not "play cat and mouse" with its soon-to-be-former partners.

David Cameron said yesterday he would leave it to his successor to invoke Article 50, which will start the two-year negotiation of our departure.

A replacement is not expected to be in Number 10 until October - but pressure is mounting on the continent for swifter action.

Mr Ayrault said: "There is a certain urgency ...  It is in Britain's interest and in the interest of Europeans not to have a period of uncertainty that would have financial consequences, and that could have economic and political consequences.

"Of course a new (British) prime minister must be appointed, that will probably require a few days but this is quite urgent."

Germany Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier added: "We join together in saying that this process must begin as soon as possible so we don't end up in an extended limbo period but rather can focus on the future of Europe and the work toward it."

The meeting - attended by France, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Germany and Luxembourg - comes after European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said he wanted Article 50 to be invoked "immediately".

But Vote Leave chief Matthew Elliot responded on Saturday by suggesting there was no rush.

"We don't think there is a need to swiftly invoke Article 50," said Mr Elliott.

"It is best for the dust to settle over the summer and during that time for there to be informal negotiations with other states."

On Tuesday EU leaders will open a two-day Brussels summit on the crisis at which a change of direction is likely to be on the agenda.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders told reporters Europe must deliver answers on immigration, security and jobs.

Meanwhile, Britain's representative on the EU executive in Brussels, Financial Services Commissioner Jonathan Hill, has stepped down.

Lord Hill said: "I don't believe it is right that I should carry on as the British commissioner as though nothing had happened.

"I came to Brussels as someone who had campaigned against Britain joining the euro and who was sceptical about Europe. I will leave it certain that, despite its frustrations, our membership was good for our place in the world and good for our economy."

Fight Against Terrorism 'More Difficult' Now

A police and crime commissioner (PCC) for one of the UK's biggest forces claims protecting the public from terrorists will be "more difficult" after the vote to leave the EU.

David Jamieson, the Labour PCC for the West Midlands, said in an era of "highly-mobile, tech-savvy" criminals it was essential police and security forces co-operated across national frontiers.

He added: "It is undeniable that the decision to leave has made the task of protecting our citizens more difficult."

Mr Jamieson said the days when criminals operate in a single area or country are long gone.

"Today, criminals are highly mobile, tech-savvy and operate across borders," he said.

"Law enforcement should be equally mobile and co-operate across national boundaries to counter the threats we face.

"Terrorists often finance their attacks via organised criminal activities - international crime, therefore, requires an international response."

Mr Jamieson's concerns have been echoed by senior police who say officers must continue to work closely with their foreign counterparts.

Assistant Commissioner Martin Hewitt, vice chairman at the National Police Chiefs' Council, said: "Ahead of the EU referendum, we stated our need to work closely with European countries.

"This operational requirement must be maintained as the UK leaves the European Union."

He said the Council would work with ministers "to ensure we retain our ability to share intelligence, biometrics and other data at speed".

Police are waiting to see how the Brexit vote will affect a number of mechanisms including the European Arrest Warrant (EAW).

This a legal framework introduced to speed up the extradition of individuals between member states to face prosecution or serve a prison sentence for an existing conviction.

According to the Government, since 2004 the EAW has enabled the UK to extradite more than 7,000 people accused or convicted of a criminal offence to other EU nations.

Germany Warns Of Brexit Domino Effect

Germany fears France, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Hungary may follow the UK and leave the EU, a government paper says.

The finance ministry strategy paper expresses concern that the UK's historic vote may trigger a Brexit domino effect across Europe, according to the German newspaper Die Welt.

It recommends that the EU enters into negotiations aimed at making the UK an "associated partner country" for the remaining 27 nations. 

As it stands, the UK's exit may cause Germany's contribution to the EU's budget to rise by 3bn euros (£2.44bn) a year, the paper adds.

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Germany's warning came hours after UKIP leader Nigel Farage declared the "EU is dying" as far-right leaders in France and the Netherlands demanded their own referendums on EU membership.

France's National Front leader Marine Le Pen changed her Twitter profile picture to a Union Jack and declared "victory for freedom," while the Dutch anti-Islam MP Geert Wilders said: "The Dutch people deserve a referendum as well."

Political leaders in Hungary and Poland stopped short of calling for their own referendums, but warned that the bloc must reevaluate its response to a number of issues, including the migration crisis, in the wake of the UK's decision. 

:: Europe Facing Huge Challenges After UK Vote

"Brussels must hear the voice of the people, this is the biggest lesson from this decision," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told public radio.

Why is Hungary in the EU? Hungary is in the EU because we believe in a strong Europe," Orban said.

"But Europe is strong only if it can give answers to major issues such as immigration that would strengthen Europe itself and not weaken it. The EU failed to give these answers."

The head of Poland's ruling party, meanwhile, said the referendum result signalled the need for EU reform.

He urged the bloc to negotiate a new treaty to help it preserve its unity.

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"The conclusion is obvious. We need a new European treaty," said Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who heads the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party.

"We need a positive reaction, and not persistent movement in the same direction, a direction which has led to crisis."

Fears of a eurosceptic domino effect across Europe have, however, also prompted an outpouring of calls for strengthened European unity.

Poland's President Andrezej Duda said: "Everything must be done to prevent other countries leaving."

And, in a statement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "There is no point beating about the bush: today is a watershed for Europe, it is a watershed for the European unification process."

Cinema Hostage Taker Had Harmless Fake Rifle

A masked man shot dead after taking hostages in a German cinema was armed only with a replica rifle, pistol and harmless fake grenades.

The 19-year-old from northern Germany walked into the cinema on Thursday afternoon in Viernheim, about six miles from Mannheim.

He took 18 hostages and fired blank rounds into the air before being killed by police. None of the hostages were injured.

Police outside the cinema in Viernheim, near Mannheim in Germany

Prosecutors say his motives are not clear but there is no evidence he had a political or terrorist background.

The Local quoted Hesse's interior minister Peter Beuth as saying the man had come into the cinema wearing a mask and carrying a long gun.

Four shots had been fired and an alarm was set off from inside the building that alerted police.

Special forces officers flew by helicopter from Frankfurt and shot the man dead.

Mr Beuth said: "The assailant moved through the cinema complex, according to the information we have now, and appeared confused.

"There were hostages inside and there was a struggle (with police) until in the end he was dead."

Cinema Hostage Taker Had Harmless Fake Rifle

A masked man shot dead after taking hostages in a German cinema was armed only with a replica rifle, pistol and harmless fake grenades.

The 19-year-old from northern Germany walked into the cinema on Thursday afternoon in Viernheim, about six miles from Mannheim.

He took 18 hostages and fired blank rounds into the air before being killed by police. None of the hostages were injured.

Police outside the cinema in Viernheim, near Mannheim in Germany

Prosecutors say his motives are not clear but there is no evidence he had a political or terrorist background.

The Local quoted Hesse's interior minister Peter Beuth as saying the man had come into the cinema wearing a mask and carrying a long gun.

Four shots had been fired and an alarm was set off from inside the building that alerted police.

Special forces officers flew by helicopter from Frankfurt and shot the man dead.

Mr Beuth said: "The assailant moved through the cinema complex, according to the information we have now, and appeared confused.

"There were hostages inside and there was a struggle (with police) until in the end he was dead."