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Sunday, February 7, 2016

Five Questions About North Korea's Rocket Launch

North Korea insists it has carried out the launch of an Earth observation satellite into space -  the Shining Star 4.
Washington, Seoul and others disagree, instead maintaining that this is the latest stage in the development of a nuclear missile.
Pyongyang had long failed to put a satellite into orbit, but was eventually successful with the Unha-3 in late 2012, although experts question how long that remained in orbit for.
It takes less than 10 minutes to get a rocket into orbit and it would take around 30 minutes for a missile to reach the west coast of America from North Korea.
The Unha-3 had a potential range of 10,000km - putting Hawaii within reach - but it's still to early to say whether this latest launch has improved on that.
Still image taken from KRT video footage and released by Yonhap shows a North Korean long-range rocket being launched
:: How are North Koreans reacting to the rocket launch?
In North Korea, the news of a successful launch will be greeted as cause for national celebration.
State television will be broadcasting bulletins on a loop, praising the leadership and guidance of Kim Jong-Un.
Crowds will gather around the big screen outside Pyongyang Central train station to watch and express their unbridled joy.
The country's new science and technology museum already has a replica of the Unha-3 rocket on display - this will become a focal point for displays of celebration in coming days.
Commemorative posters will be available and this day will be marked annually.
Both the space and nuclear programme are sources of great pride in the country.
When I met schoolchildren in Pyongyang last year and asked them what they wanted to do when they grew up, all the boys said they wanted to be a "scientist" or "space engineer".
North Koreans watch the launch of a long-range rocket on a giant screen
:: Why does Kim Jong-Un need to win the admiration of his people?
Kim Jong-Un doesn't have the fabled reputation of his forefathers.
Kim Il-Sung, the current leader's grandfather, is famed for leading a successful resistance against the occupying Japanese.
He was the first leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and treated literally as a god, the Sun God, inside North Korea today.
His son, Kim Jong-Un's father, Kim Jong-Il, was officially born inside a secret military camp near the holy Mount Paekdu as his father fought the Japanese.
He continued the cult of personality and is remembered by North Koreans almost as fondly as his father.
Conversely, Kim Jong-Un is young, Swiss educated, overweight and lacking in military experience.
Portraits of Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il hang in every classroom, home and office in North Korea.
Giant murals of the two men cover building facades.
They are worshipped in a way Kim Jong-Un isn't.
North Koreans offer flowers to bronze statues of North Korea's late founder Kim Il Sung and late leader Kim Jong Il at Mansudae in Pyongyang
Developing the nuclear programme is a way of creating his own legacy and showing strength.
:: What are the consequences of the rocket launch?
Coming so soon after the latest nuclear test, Pyongyang seems to have taken advantage of international disagreement.
Washington and Beijing are unable to reach a joint position on how to punish North Korea, and Pyongyang might reasonably conclude that whatever fate awaits them won't be much worse as a result of the rocket launch.
North Korea is already sanctioned extremely heavily.
This has had a profound effect on everyday life but has clearly failed to stop the development of the nuclear programme.
It's likely the United Nations will slap new sanctions on them, but the leadership will care little for how that might affect the people.
The men at the top, and their families, will continue to enjoy the trappings of power.
One other consequence of this launch is likely to be louder calls for the US to deploy its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defence system in South Korea to protect the peninsula.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during a ceremony at the meeting hall of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea
North Korea would undoubtedly claim such a move provocative.
:: Would North Korea fire first?
There are two hypothetical scenarios:
YES: A series of events heightens tensions in the peninsula.
The US flies its B-52 nuclear bombers close to North Korea airspace as a demonstration of strength and superiority.
Seoul puts its military on highest state of alert.
North Korea, having spent decades convincing itself an attack is imminent, is now sure this is the moment.
Being insanely paranoid, the young leader orders a pre-emptive strike to show his people he is a warrior to fear.
He then hurries off into an underground network of bunkers as the country above him collapses into war.
NO: For all its success convincing its own people that North Korea is a nuclear power to be reckoned with, the leadership privately knows it doesn't have the resources to develop a weapon capable of accurately hitting the United States.
Its military, although enormous, is built on sand. Weapons systems are old and malfunctioning. Soldiers are badly trained, poorly equipped and suffering low morale.
The nuclear programme is nothing more than an expensive ploy to be noticed.
In time, under pressure from China, it will be used as a negotiating chip to reduce sanctions and slowly open North Korea up.

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