Poll: Scots Would Reject Independence Again

A new opinion poll has found that a majority of Scots would reject Scottish independence, even if the UK votes to leave the European Union.

TNS surveyed over 18s with regard to the scenario of Britain leaving the EU, prompting another referendum on Scottish independence. 

The research found that 48% would vote 'No' to independence, 38% would vote 'Yes' and 14% didn't know.  

If the 'don’t knows' were removed, the poll would stand at 56% 'No' against 44% 'Yes' - almost identical to the 2014 referendum which returned a result of 55% versus 45%. 

Under 18s were not included in the survey. 

In the Scottish independence referendum, in September 2014, 16 and 17-year-olds were able to vote.

The research also found more than half of Scottish adults - 51% - back staying in the European Union, up 3% since the last similar TNS survey in April.

There was no change in the number saying they will vote to leave at 21%, while 29% said they did not know (down 2%).

If the ‘don’t knows’ are removed, the survey suggests 71% will vote to remain and 29% to leave.

The survey found that 71% of Scots said they were "certain to vote".   

Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said: "The level of support for the EU in Scotland has shown little change over the last few months and it looks likely that Scotland will vote to remain on 23 June.

"There is still the potential for a high turnout, suggesting that the Scottish public can see the importance of this decision. 

"The SNP has said that a UK vote to leave the EU could trigger a new referendum on Independence.

"However, on the basis of this latest poll it would appear that appetite for such a move is mostly limited to those who back independence rather than being shared by the public as a whole. 

"There is also little evidence that opinion towards independence has shifted significantly since September 2014, with support for a Yes vote, even in these circumstances, well below the 60% level that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has indicated she would be looking for before calling another vote." 

In the survey, people were also asked whether or not they thought there should be a new independence referendum in the event of a Brexit. 

In these circumstances, 43% backed a new referendum, 46% did not and 10% didn’t know. 

The highest support for a new referendum was among Yes voters (87%), compared to only 13% amongst No voters.